r/bonds

I am curious to hear everyone’s thoughts on PEMEX bonds. They typically get a lot of hate but I’ve owned their bonds for about 3 years and have had zero issues. My bonds have a face value of $100k and maturity dates ranging from 2038-2050. They’re up about 14% since I purchased them and had a YTM between 10-11% at the time of purchase.

I know the company is a shit show but under this administration they are a quasi govt security. It doesn’t sound like the govt would let them default on their bonds.

When did you enter, why, and what % of your portfolio

Most my bonds are down 5-10%

If I can exit some at break even, should I?

I’ve had since 2022 when interest rates were about to collapse, so I wanted to lock in 4.4% after tax yields

I’m retired at early 30’s and can do anything I want with my current income. (I don’t need more gains necessarily)

And yes I'm aware why most international bond funds are currency hedged.

Basically I'm looking for an unhedged version of BNDW. All unhedged international bond funds I've found are active with high fees.

I will default to BND if none exist.

I know this is a bonds thread but what are your guys thoughts on alternatives such as BDC's such as ARCC?

Because I'm heavy in muni bonds but aware of the risks that yields may rise over time and thus the value of my muni's and yields will go down.

ARCC - This has a different type of risk than bonds, but dividends have continuously been increasing.

Do you guys hold any or have thoughts?

I don't have a lot of experience w/ munis but I recently learned that because of my high tax bracket (37%) the actual yield on a 2.7% muni bond is closer to 5%+. I'm also in a high tax locality (NYC).

• Is this true? Am I missing something?
• If so, is it generally advisable to only buy AAA munis, are AA and A munis ok?

For context I have a high amount in Tbills earmarked for a primary residence purchase so I'm thinking of moving over to 3 month munis.

What tools are you using to come up with an average expected dividend when investing in a bond fund? Say something like Vanguard's BSV?

Hey all, need some perspective. I have about 40% of my portfolio in Treasuries (20+ years). I was expecting a more straightforward path toward rate cuts due to mid-term and unemployment, but the Iran war and the oil reaction feel like they could keep inflation very sticky. Higher global oil prices could push prices up and that can impact both American and European economies.

I was listening to a Druckenmiller interview and what stood out to me was that he was effectively short Treasuries and short USD while long Asia/China (excluding Japan). That did not automatically register but i start to wonder if my instinct is wrong.

I am trying to decide whether to downsize my Treasuries allocation or stay put. I get the argument that if unemployment is shit , Treasuries might be the safe place. But I also worry about downsizing too early if rate cuts still happen later than I thought, and if Treasuries are still serving a risk management role. i’m 50 y/o. what do you think?

I'm looking for historical price data (not yields) for U.S. Treasury bonds and notes. I need it for private analysis and backtesting, covering the past few years.

Examples of the securities I'm tracking:

• UST 4.875% (31 May 2026) – CUSIP: 91282CKS9
• UST 4.375% (30 Nov 2030) – CUSIP: 91282CJM4
• UST 4.50% (31 Dec 2031) – CUSIP: 91282CMC2
• UST 4.75% (15 Feb 2045) – CUSIP: 912810UJ5

Any recommendations for reliable datasets, APIs, or downloadable sources?

I'm having trouble understanding why interest rate expectations outweigh inflation for real yields.

I know interest rates go up, bond prices go down and yields go up.

But what I don't understand is how that effect is more powerful than inflation for real yeilds?

For TIPs this makes sense. Inflation risk is not an issue and TIP yeilds logically go up the higher the interest rate is.

But for debt equities that aren't adjusted for inflation I don't understand. I get that the nominal yeild goes up but the real yeild is puzzling me.

I was looking through Trading View and I found a bond with a 423% YTM that expires in 7 months. I checked the SEC filing and it says the threshold is the S&P 500 going below 2,622.40 (it was filed in 2019). This seems way too good to be true, can anyone please tell me what the catch is?

https://preview.redd.it/ywyl3lk6csug1.png?width=3500&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4899161cf99c8f18e5379950acb8fb5fe8305e1

https://preview.redd.it/477tms2zbsug1.png?width=3809&format=png&auto=webp&s=17efa11d2bd2837030769c44fa8686e46d821313

Does anyone have an idea what the new rate will be for IBonds? Just a rough estimate?

I recently came across these ETFs and I'm wondering what folks think about them. It seems like a nice way to invest in corporates without having to choose individual bonds and the cost is pretty low (0.08%). They could also be used to set up a more diversified bond ladder. Only downside seems to be that you aren't guaranteed a specific payout at the end of the period which I consider to be a fairly minor issue.

Thinking of investing in corporate bonds but unsure how safe they really are in India. How do I evaluate risk vs returns? Has anyone faced defaults or delays in payouts? Would anyone recommend them over FDs or debt mutual funds?

Also, what is the best way to invest in them?