u/ScholarPrize1335

I'm posting this because I have a theory but I'm totally open to it being incorrect. I'm definitely open to learning new things and a good faith discussion.

Marco: There are big negative economic factors that have the potential to get significantly worse. A partial resolution of something negative (like a major trade route being closed) does not equal a positive. Even if the war is completely over and the straight 100 percent open on Monday that is not a great scenario. The great scenario would have been if the straight wouldn't have been closed in the first place. And the downstream effects of the closure will be felt either way.

Theory: Bad real life economics and lack of alternatives can fuel a rally.

Hedge funds algorithms can get in and out of positions faster than it takes for a light to go from human eyes to the brain.

The fact the party is ending soon (real world economy) is more reason for them to get drinks (profit) while they still can. Which makes sense if you can exit with your profits quickly without becoming a bag holder.

Hedge funds are also good at shorting so if they help create a bubble that comes crashing down they will beat the benchmark index (S and P) when it crashes as well.

They don't care if something is unstable and detached from reality. Profit from bubbles spends the same as profits from prudent conservative investing.

Lack of alternatives: The bond (debt security) market is trash. And gold looks less hyperbolic than last year. So there's nowhere safe and conservative that offers actual returns.

If the safe options are risk heavy compared to their returns the high return short term plays are less risky in a relative sense.

Takeaway: Stop looking at the news and stop trying to build a story that makes sense. It's a gamble to stay out of this market completely just like it's a gamble to go all in of this market. DCA all the way.

(None of this is advice. It's just hypothetical for fun)

TL:DR Nothing is safe anymore and order flow is disproportionately controlled by people who have very short term time horizons. No one knows or can predict when the other shoe will drop. And news is irrelevant if the market stops responding rationalely to news.

When BTC is below MSTR's cost basis the cost basis is irrelevant.

When BTC is above MSTR's cost basis its stone cold proof of Saylor's wise "vision".

Now that BTC is rising you need to look at mNAV instead of BTC/ share.

A smart investor looks solely at the metrics that make sense or that Saylor says matter. And these metrics often can't be measured by Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Because Saylor is smarter than accounting :)

I'm having trouble understanding why interest rate expectations outweigh inflation for real yields.

I know interest rates go up, bond prices go down and yields go up.

But what I don't understand is how that effect is more powerful than inflation for real yeilds?

For TIPs this makes sense. Inflation risk is not an issue and TIP yeilds logically go up the higher the interest rate is.

But for debt equities that aren't adjusted for inflation I don't understand. I get that the nominal yeild goes up but the real yeild is puzzling me.