Hey all, need some perspective. I have about 40% of my portfolio in Treasuries (20+ years). I was expecting a more straightforward path toward rate cuts due to mid-term and unemployment, but the Iran war and the oil reaction feel like they could keep inflation very sticky. Higher global oil prices could push prices up and that can impact both American and European economies.
I was listening to a Druckenmiller interview and what stood out to me was that he was effectively short Treasuries and short USD while long Asia/China (excluding Japan). That did not automatically register but i start to wonder if my instinct is wrong.
I am trying to decide whether to downsize my Treasuries allocation or stay put. I get the argument that if unemployment is shit , Treasuries might be the safe place. But I also worry about downsizing too early if rate cuts still happen later than I thought, and if Treasuries are still serving a risk management role. i’m 50 y/o. what do you think?