r/TheRaceTo10Million

Happy new tax year! The fresh £20k ISA allowance officially drops at midnight. 🇬🇧💰

My brain: "Build a sensible, well-diversified ETF pie and let it compound."

Me at 8am tomorrow: "Slamming the buy button on energy proxies because of the Middle East supply shock." 🛢️🔥😂

In all seriousness though, with billions in new retail liquidity hitting the market this week, I'm genuinely curious what you lot are doing…

Is anyone else pivoting their ISA strategy tomorrow to catch the oil/energy momentum, or are you guys strictly sticking to the long term plan regardless of the geopolitical supply shock?

Anyone got a new pie they’re excited about, or just sticking to the usual? Let’s hear the strategies! 👇

I just finished a chart dive into $BTBD and I’m posting my analysis because I believe there could be solid play here.

It’s a tiny-cap with a ~3M float that just made a solid run about a week ago, faded, and appears to be setting up for another attempt. This follow-on setup is occurring with the backdrop of a merger in progress facilitating a major pivot into the drone space. Charts are my thing, but I’ll provide a few more broad strokes here to highlight company information that’s relevant to the play setting up right now.

TL;DR
No more TL;DR’s. If you can’t take the time to understand a setup in it’s full context you have no business trading it, especially if it’s a penny!

Background
$BTBD is a small Nasdaq company undergoing a major pivot into drone technology through its upcoming merger with Aero Velocity, an AI-powered UAV services company. The merger will be a major pivot for the company into the drone space. If a news catalyst is behind the restless price action it’s been showing it would seem most likely to be pending merger news, but, theoretically, it could be related to other things such as closing new partnerships or possible new government contracts.
Market cap: ~$7–9M / OS: ~6.1M / Public float: ~3.1M / Annual revenue: ~$14M

Additionally, they just filed 4Q and FY 2025 results, and this could also be behind the lift, at least to some degree. Content-wise, I’ll say the ER was genuinely good. It says at the legacy business level EBITDA rose 138% to $1.7 million, operating loss improved about 80% to $(364,585) from $(1.8) million, net loss narrowed to $(687,839) from $(2.3) million, and the company ended the year with about $4.4 million in cash and marketable securities. When I trade penny stocks, fundamentals are not a big part of my vetting process, and I was a little surprised to see these numbers.

There is also some positive merger language in the filing. It reiterates some things like the deal is expected to reposition the company into an AI/drone inspection platform and that the post-merger company is expected to operate as Aero Velocity and remain on Nasdaq. They also say the merger continues to advance. That’s constructive, keeps the thesis alive and active, but it’s still “progress” language, not “completion” language, which is what we expect will give it the kind of move we look for as penny traders. The kind of headline we are looking for is a “vote approved,” “effective date set,” “deal closed.” What we got is "supportive," not "decisive."

But it does show improving core operations, a little strengthening of the balance sheet, and reassures shareholders that the merger is top-of-mind and it’s moving forward.

That should give you a solid background for what’s percolating behind the price action and give you some direction what to search for in your own DD. Now let’s look at the charts.

Chart Overview
I always attach charts on subs that allow.
To follow this you’ll need to look at 1 year daily, 60 day-hourly, 20 day / 15 min, 10 day / 5 min, and 1 day / 1 min. Indicators include EMA's for 9, 20, 50, 200 periods, VWAP, Volume Distribution, and anchored VWAP (for significant spikes or events, high or low). Then below the chart are: MACD, Volume Average, Relative Volume, ATR, and RSI.

Overall, I would say the setup we closed out with on Thursday looks better than it did on the first pass a week ago, not because it’s a sudden slam-dunk this time, but because the chart has had time to prove that the first move was not just a one-candle wonder.

The last run on 3/25, the price pushed through key levels, held ~$1.60, then tested $2.00 the next morning. The preliminary read looked like a real base breakout and it did, in fact, clear $2.00 and push into the $2.30’s. It faded some into open, showed signs of weakening for a while, then began to surrender levels, ultimately settling in the $1.50’s and holding there, still significantly above the $1.30’s where the uptrend originally started. So, to restate what I think is significant here, it pulled back, then based at a meaningfully higher level than where the original move started.

That is why this second attempt is more interesting to me. On the 10D/5m, 20D/15m, and 60D/1h, it now looks like a base-on-base setup. The first run marked the ticker as active, the fade turned into panic, and the current push is coming out of a higher low / higher value area. That is usually healthier and more reliable than a stock trying to launch straight from the floor.

Technically, there is a clean bullish case here that any technical trader should be able to see. Price is back above the full EMA stack on the relevant frames again, but now the structure is tighter and more mature. On the daily, price is above the 9/20/50/200, MACD is positive and improving, and the stock is no longer merely repairing. It’s trending, and Thursday’s trend was self-evidently better constructed than the more volatile one we saw on 3/25.  On the hourly, the recent action shows stronger stair-stepping than the earlier attempt, with the 9/20/50 all rising under price. On the 15m and 5m, it’s showing better pullback support and a cleaner reclaim of prior resistance.

The 1-minute chart also supports the idea that this latest push was stronger than the first attempt. Instead of a series of choppy spikes, Thursday behaved more like a real trend day with persistent higher lows, price living above VWAP, and late-session strength holding close to the highs. Generally speaking, it’s just better quality action.

Zooming out, the bird’s eye take is the first move created a reference high around the low-$2.30s, the fade did not destroy the chart, and the new move is now pressing back into that same supply zone from a stronger platform. We usually see when nano-floats fail, the second attempt starts from obvious weakness. Here, the opposite happened. The stock held up, rebuilt, and is now leaning back into resistance. This gives the overall setup a better technical structure, which is essentially what I care about, but you can’t completely separate the charts from the fact they just posted positive financial results and the market knows major catalysts could drop anytime.

Bullish and Bearish Summaries:
Bullish: $BTBD’s first breakout attempt doesn’t read like it was invalidated so much as interrupted. It pushed, failed, and reset, but the reset held at a much higher level, built a new base, and now price is pushing back toward the prior highs with stronger multi-timeframe alignment. It looks like it’s setting up for a higher push. In theory it could be rejected again at $2.32. I would take either and call it a win.

Bearish: If I saw a lot of bearish tells in the chart I wouldn’t be posting about it, so I will offer my bearish perspective that is true of all pennies. No matter how positive the TA and DD are this is still a penny. 60% of penny stocks are near zero value within 3 years. No stock trades come with guarantees, especially pennies. Penny setups have a short shelf-life, so check the timestamp on every post, and don’t jump into a trade because a 5 day old reddit post sounded good. Don’t trade pennies if you don’t know how. Never hold for the moon, take profits and scale. If it actually moons, how many shares do you really need? No matter how confident you are in a penny trade, never passively trade pennies. These are my personal rules. NFA.

If you are interested, I have updated my levels for this play. This is how I see them but always do your own technicals. Remember also these levels are always more like areas than exact numbers.

Immediate resistance: roughly $2.25, then the prior pivot around $2.32. That is the obvious near-term gate. A clean reclaim there would be huge.

First support: around $2.10. That is the first area I would want to see hold on any pullback, since that is where the short intraday trend structure is hanging.

More important support: around $2.01, then roughly $1.90. Losing the low $1.90’s would call for serious reconsideration. Remember when I talk about breaking resistance or losing support I’m talking about three consecutive candles with volume, not a tail popping above or below a line on my chart.

Line in the sand: the broader $1.58 area. Period.

Make your own plan and stick to it. I would like to see this hold above $2.00 on pullbacks and then decisively clear $2.32. If that happens, the chart starts to look like a real continuation breakout. If it starts slipping back toward the high-$1s, then I will start reducing my exposure. Again, this is MY plan. Feel free to take what works for you, but you should make your own plan based on your particular circumstances.
GLTA and G*d Save Retail.

If you would have invested into these companies on December 19th last year when I did, you would have been up 17.3% today. In comparison if you would have kept your money in s&p 500 your return In the same time frame would have been -3.7%. Typically my investments return up to 5% per month, a bit less during bear markets. The goal is to beat the market every year 2x to 3x.

Ticker, Dec19 price, return%

$RKLB, $70, -2.8%

$PL, $19, 89% 🔥

$LLY, $1071, -12.6%

$SLV, $60, 10%

$ASML, $1056, 25%

$ONDS, $9, 0.67%

$COKE, $166, 9%

$FDX, $288, 26%

$RIO, $$78, 20.5%

$JNJ, $208, 16.8%

$DAL, $71, -5.6%

Total: + 17.3% return in a bear 🐻 market so far