I made a website called skew strategies which analyses stocks using GEX, valuations (DCF and CCA) as well as measures news sentiment, insider trades, earnings, and maps out scenarios for bear/base/bull cases. It has way more features like backtesting but I need some help. The entire thing is quite costly to run (financial api's are running me over $300/month alone), but it has its bugs and I just want some general feedback for it. It's free but you do have to sign up, I'm not going to spam you with emails I just want to know how many people are using the platform. Thanks guys :)

Hi all,

My name is Grace Lagan - I am a journalist with the Australian Financial Review, covering markets from our Sydney newsroom. I am working on a story about how the CGT changes announced as part of yesterday's Federal Budget are impacting retail investors' demand for ETFs and shares.

To that end: if you are a millenial or Gen-Z retail investor with (ASX-listed) shares or ETF investments and would be keen to speak about what you think about the changes, and how they might impact you, please get in touch with me at grace.lagan@afr.com or my DMs here. 

Ideally we would be able to get a photograph of you taken before the end of the week too, so please don't be too camera shy!

This budget changes severely impacts me.

I have worked full time when I was at uni, and now more than 6 days a week as a middle aged man

I am in the highest income bracket and I spent a huge portion of any spare time I have into studying stocks and share investing

my strategey is usually hold for 1-3 years and then use CGT 50% discount

I have a multimillion portfiolio due to my frguality, hard work, and skill/luck with investing

THis is a very bad outcoem for me

THough i have to agree that it seems unfair to tax wages much more heavily thant capital gains after 1 year of share investing

thoughts anyone?

The CBA will be down around 10% for today if the market will not stop reacting.

The Q3 report for big four banks showed that Commonwealth Bank has flat operations income on first half quarterly average. Cash profits are down 1% in first half quarterly average.

In my opinion these are only due to unconfident in modern economy and the bank is yet to prosper. It is still one of the biggest companies in the world and a dominant of Australian financial market.

In my opinion the opportunity that will rise tomorrow to buy it on discount is exclusive and has to be used by everyone.

What are your ideas? I don’t think the bearish market will continue so severely tomorrow, so it will be the day. Please give your ideas if I am wrong in any way or my ideas counter yours.

Good luck investing !

I have no idea how to interpret this new budget crap.

Current situation: $50 k in VGS and $20 k in VAS. I normally throw $5 k a year into each portfolio and it’s essentially to give to my kids in 20 years..

How does this new budget affect this strategy? Do I even bother investing still? What are the outcomes if in say 20 years my portfolio is worth $250k? How much does the government take from my hard years of investing?

Should I stop investing and just go build a new house and land package, rent it out for $1 k a week and still be eligible for negative gearing etc.

Sigh….

For those who missed it, CSL released their Interim CEO 90 Day Review this morning (11 May). Here’s the damage:
The guidance cut:
• FY26 revenue revised down to ~$15.2B (constant currency)
• NPATA cut to ~$3.1B — excluding restructuring and impairments (of course)
• ~$650M total revenue haircut driven by:
• US Immunoglobulin channel inventory normalisation (~$300M)
• China Albumin market value decline (~$200M)
• Middle East conflict + HEMGENIX disappointment + iron competition (~$150M)
The $5 billion impairment elephant in the room:
On top of the $1.5B already booked at 1H results, they’re flagging an additional ~$5B in non-cash pre-tax impairments across FY26/FY27. Primarily CSL Vifor intangibles. You know — the acquisition they paid ~$16B for in 2022 that has basically been a value destruction machine ever since.
Leadership vacuum:
• Still no permanent CEO
• CCO Andy Schmeltz is retiring for “personal reasons”
• Interim CEO Gordon Naylor will step down to Non-Executive Director once a permanent CEO is found
The bull case they’re pushing:
IG demand is genuinely growing mid-to-high single digits. PRIVIGEN IVIg share has ticked up from 19% to 21%. Transformation savings of $500M-$550M per annum targeted by FY28. Seqirus separation on track for 1 July.
My take:
The market may be down 3-4% today treating this as a “kitchen sink” moment. Maybe. But the recurring theme with CSL over the past 3 years is that every downgrade comes with “growth initiatives are working, benefits just take longer than expected.” That line is in today’s presentation verbatim.
Vifor was a $16B bet that isn’t paying off. The pipeline has had multiple Phase 3 failures. Invested capital grew faster than earnings for years. And now we’re supposed to trust a recovery timeline that won’t fully materialise until FY28 at the earliest — with no permanent CEO at the wheel.
For those holding from $200+: at what point does “long-term compounder” become “sunk cost”?
Full year results: 18 August 2026. That’s the next real catalyst.

Time to buy CSL stock. Just compiled my analysis on the company following today's update. Ripe for the picking at current levels, and imagine that over the next few weeks, we see further weakness in the price. [Edit: Buy now, if drops mores, buy more]

Edits below:

Sorry lol, dinner was ready. Today's downgrade should've been reflected in the AGM update, instead of deferring till today. But doesnt take much effort to guess why it didnt - i.e. AGM, s/h approvals on remuneration (sti/lti). Anyways. What actually happened between august/october and now? Well-executed transformation program. CSL now trades below Grifols multiple.

AI summary below:

Investment Thesis: CSL is a best-in-class global biopharma trading at 9.5x EV/EBITDA, the deepest discount in its listed history, following $6.5bn in impairments, CEO departure, and two guidance downgrades. The market prices permanent structural impairment; our analysis assigns 75% probability these headwinds are more cyclical. Core Ig demand (39% of revenue) remains observable at mid-high single digits, the plasma oligopoly (CR3 75%) is intact, and transformation savings are 60% delivered.

Fair value A$143 implies 42% upside with 30% margin of safety. The key catalyst is permanent CEO appointment (expected within 6-12 months); the key risk is FcRn antibody displacement of autoimmune Ig indications over 5-10 years.

Investment horizon: 18-36 months for cyclical recovery; 3-5 years for full thesis realisation.

Top 5 Investment Merits:

1. Oligopoly Ig franchise with biological demand floor: PID/SID volumes are medically necessary. No substitute exists. Mid-high single digit growth observable and durable.
2. Deepest valuation discount in company history: 9.5x EV/EBITDA vs 16x 3-year average. Even assuming permanent 300bps margin compression, 11-12x is justified.
3. Transformation savings structurally delivered: 60% of $500m already achieved through centre closures and headcount reduction.
4. Superior balance sheet provides recovery runway: 1.8x leverage, IG credit, $3.4bn liquidity. Can sustain 35% revenue decline before credit stress emerges.
5. Seqirus demerger optionality: A$13/share risk-adjusted value from separating #1 flu vaccine franchise.

Top 5 Investment Risks:

1. Leadership vacuum: Interim CEO + CCO departing + new COO. Three simultaneous C-suite transitions stretch execution capacity. New CEO may reset strategy entirely.
2. FcRn displacement (5-10yr): Argenx Vyvgart expanding indications, could erode 20-30% of Ig TAM. No CSL defence strategy articulated.
3. Ig demand deceleration: If structural growth falls below 4%, revenue CAGR drops to ~1.5% and base case converges with bear.
4. Vifor further deterioration: Iron generics accelerating; $5bn additional impairments may not be the last. Capital allocation credibility damaged.
5. AUD/USD translation: At 0.7246, AUD strength compresses the AUD share price. ±5c = ±A$21/share.

Valuation Summary:

Metric	Value	vs Current	Confidence
Fair Value (Dynamic)	A$143	+42%
Fair Value Range (90% CI)	A$104–A$192
Bear Case	A$98	-3%	25% prob
Bull Case	A$199	+98%	15% prob
Expected Return (3yr, p.a.)	~14%

I have held my shares with CSL for a long time and they are bleeding me. Is there any chance of the shares ever rising again or are we at acquisition territory?

Feels like every few months the predictions change completely. One minute everyone’s talking about cuts, then inflation numbers come out and suddenly people are saying rates could stay high even longer. What do people realistically think happens from here?

Can someone explain to me how the CGT transition will work for assets purchase between 1st July 26 and 30 Jun 27? Will the 50% discount just not exist because the new system is less than a year away or if we hold it for a year, say 30 August 2026- 29 August 27 we get the 50% discount on the gains of up until 30 June 27 then the indexation portion from 1 July 27????

Not going to be breaking news here, calling CBA out as overvalued, but it might help those who didn't understand why CBA's down 10 today. Hope it helps.

https://preview.redd.it/eab5v31s3v0h1.png?width=861&format=png&auto=webp&s=6cd3c585155239b8f0159a799221ccadd7839adb

https://preview.redd.it/2tz040q74v0h1.png?width=908&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e26df0ade1be974749be9d029c872ee1e68bac3

Health stocks are in serious crisis at the moment. CSL, Cochlear, Resmed, Ramsay Health and others are all falling, to greater or lessor degrees.

Is CSL a flashpoint in a sectoral slide? If so, what's up with the sector, and are CSL and COH really in trouble or are they just high profile symptoms of a (by definition, temporary) sectoral malaise?

I’m having a serious case of overconfidence/ the Dunning Kruger effect. I’m normally very sensible and have only ever invested in ETFs. However, now I’ve got it in my head that I could impulsively sink all my money into a few speccy healthcare stocks like 4DX and IMR and potentially double my money.

The logical part of my brain says that there are probably lots of risks here that I’m not considering. The impulsive, greedy part of my brain says that as long as I buy once I can see the stock start to recover after a dip, and have a stop loss in place so I can’t lose too much if it crashes, it seems fairly safe? I barely know anything about these companies except that they have no competitors, seem to have good products protected by patents, and it seems hard to imagine how they won’t eventually do well.

Can someone please point out the flaws in my logic here? I’m sure I’m being very reckless and overconfident, but I can’t seem to talk myself out of it. Horror stories of similar mistakes people have made would be welcome.

The overvalued trash will be next CSL same fate $80

CSL and ResMed have both had a pretty rough run on the ASX recently, especially CSL with all the earnings pressure and big moves in sentiment. I’m trying to figure out whether this is more of a genuine buying opportunity after a reset, or if the market is basically re-rating the sector and pricing in slower growth going forward

I only started investing a couple of weeks ago and the volatility has been a pretty quick reality check. I went in expecting slow steady growth over time, but instead I’ve spent most mornings opening the app to a portfolio full of red. Everyone always says buy and hold like it’s easy, but it feels very different when it’s your own money dropping every day and the news cycle is full of macro chaos

Bit of a split-screen day.

Banks sold hard all session on Budget anxiety — ANZ and NAB both down 2.1%, CBA and Westpac 1.4%. The fear was negative gearing changes and CGT reform hitting property investor demand for mortgages. Property investors were around 40% of mortgage applications last year so it's not a small number for bank earnings. They sold on the rumour — Budget detail tonight will tell us whether they bounce or keep going.

Meanwhile BHP closed at $59.78, an all-time high, briefly overtaking CBA as the largest company on the ASX. Copper hit another record (around US$6.44/lb). Rio +3.1%, South32 +3.6%. Materials was the only sector in the green.

The ugly: Life360 -10.9% after downgrading user growth guidance — a tech glitch is suppressing new user adds and won't be resolved until Q3. Revenue beat didn't matter, growth is the whole thesis. DroneShield -9.9% with ASIC launching a formal investigation after the former CEO and chairman sold ~$70m in stock. Timing is rough. CSL continued falling, down another 2.2% after Monday's 16% collapse.

Bigger picture: ASX down 3.4% over the last 19 sessions. S&P 500 up 5.5%, Nasdaq up 9.3% in the same window. The RBA keeps hiking while the Fed is about to cut. That gap is why international money is rotating out.

US CPI tonight is the next big one — street expecting 3.7% headline (from 3.3% in March). Hot print and rate-cut expectations get repriced everywhere.

Anyone else positioned around the banks tonight, or sitting on hands until the Budget detail drops?

Dealt with some scepticism on this call as it went thru $200, then the brilliant low risk short at $150, and now at $100, another gem of a short off the open.

This one needs to coax institutional investors back and that wont occurr until this SP gets very, very attractive against this backdrop of bad news and arrogant management.

Remember: always drown your puppies traders.