Not going to be breaking news here, calling CBA out as overvalued, but it might help those who didn't understand why CBA's down 10 today. Hope it helps.

https://preview.redd.it/eab5v31s3v0h1.png?width=861&format=png&auto=webp&s=6cd3c585155239b8f0159a799221ccadd7839adb

https://preview.redd.it/2tz040q74v0h1.png?width=908&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e26df0ade1be974749be9d029c872ee1e68bac3

Time to buy CSL stock. Just compiled my analysis on the company following today's update. Ripe for the picking at current levels, and imagine that over the next few weeks, we see further weakness in the price. [Edit: Buy now, if drops mores, buy more]

Edits below:

Sorry lol, dinner was ready. Today's downgrade should've been reflected in the AGM update, instead of deferring till today. But doesnt take much effort to guess why it didnt - i.e. AGM, s/h approvals on remuneration (sti/lti). Anyways. What actually happened between august/october and now? Well-executed transformation program. CSL now trades below Grifols multiple.

AI summary below:

Investment Thesis: CSL is a best-in-class global biopharma trading at 9.5x EV/EBITDA, the deepest discount in its listed history, following $6.5bn in impairments, CEO departure, and two guidance downgrades. The market prices permanent structural impairment; our analysis assigns 75% probability these headwinds are more cyclical. Core Ig demand (39% of revenue) remains observable at mid-high single digits, the plasma oligopoly (CR3 75%) is intact, and transformation savings are 60% delivered.

Fair value A$143 implies 42% upside with 30% margin of safety. The key catalyst is permanent CEO appointment (expected within 6-12 months); the key risk is FcRn antibody displacement of autoimmune Ig indications over 5-10 years.

Investment horizon: 18-36 months for cyclical recovery; 3-5 years for full thesis realisation.

Top 5 Investment Merits:

1. Oligopoly Ig franchise with biological demand floor: PID/SID volumes are medically necessary. No substitute exists. Mid-high single digit growth observable and durable.
2. Deepest valuation discount in company history: 9.5x EV/EBITDA vs 16x 3-year average. Even assuming permanent 300bps margin compression, 11-12x is justified.
3. Transformation savings structurally delivered: 60% of $500m already achieved through centre closures and headcount reduction.
4. Superior balance sheet provides recovery runway: 1.8x leverage, IG credit, $3.4bn liquidity. Can sustain 35% revenue decline before credit stress emerges.
5. Seqirus demerger optionality: A$13/share risk-adjusted value from separating #1 flu vaccine franchise.

Top 5 Investment Risks:

1. Leadership vacuum: Interim CEO + CCO departing + new COO. Three simultaneous C-suite transitions stretch execution capacity. New CEO may reset strategy entirely.
2. FcRn displacement (5-10yr): Argenx Vyvgart expanding indications, could erode 20-30% of Ig TAM. No CSL defence strategy articulated.
3. Ig demand deceleration: If structural growth falls below 4%, revenue CAGR drops to ~1.5% and base case converges with bear.
4. Vifor further deterioration: Iron generics accelerating; $5bn additional impairments may not be the last. Capital allocation credibility damaged.
5. AUD/USD translation: At 0.7246, AUD strength compresses the AUD share price. ±5c = ±A$21/share.

Valuation Summary:

Metric	Value	vs Current	Confidence
Fair Value (Dynamic)	A$143	+42%
Fair Value Range (90% CI)	A$104–A$192
Bear Case	A$98	-3%	25% prob
Bull Case	A$199	+98%	15% prob
Expected Return (3yr, p.a.)	~14%