u/Leveraged_Lots

Ring Energy just closed out the day with an almost 30% loss resulting from a fresh equity offering at a steep discount to the prior closing price.

The company went into 2026 with conservative hedges on ~70% of production across both oil and gas and a strategy of debt reduction but as soon as shit hit the fan in the middle east and crude started shooting higher, this strategy seemingly went out the window.

When Ring Energy reported Q1 earnings on May 7th, debt had increased, management explained this was done to increase production to take advantage of higher prices, shifting the hedged portion of overall production lower.

Yesterday after the close of trading, the equity offering was announced, 44.444 mio shares @ $1.35, yielding cash to the company of $60m.

Management hasn't commented on the reason behind the offering, but judging from their Q1 earnings call, it'll likely be spent on additional and accelerated drilling.

While the dilution is rough for existing shareholders, for prospective investors, the lower entry-level and additional drilling CapEx, has made this already torqued name into an extremely high beta way to play WTI Crude Oil prices.

The company is leveraged as fuck, it's a small-cap Shitco and it has an atrocious history of destroying shareholder value, but my god if it isn't a good way to bet on higher for longer oil prices.

Disclaimer: I currently hold no position in the shares but will be looking to establish a position.

Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Highlights

U.S. commercial petroleum inventories saw an overall decrease of 5.1 million barrels. Specific breakdowns include:

Crude Oil: Decreased by 4.3 million barrels to a total of 452.9 million barrels (0.3% below the five-year average).

Motor Gasoline: Decreased by 4.1 million barrels (5% below the five-year average).

Distillate Fuel: Increased slightly by 0.2 million barrels (9% below the five-year average).

Propane/Propylene: Increased by 3.6 million barrels (55% above the five-year average).

While we're generally fine for now, this rate of inventory drawing is completely unsustainable and one of two things will have to occur. Either the Strait of Hormuz resumes traffic or prices will have to increase, for real demand destruction to take effect, something Morgan Stanley analysts don't expect until Brent at $140/bbl.

P.S Fuck you mods, I broke no rules, just sharing easily verifiable information, highly relevant for markets.

Disclaimer: Very long on oil producers and oil related stocks.

Source link:

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-may-2026

Listen up you beautiful regards, the IEA just dropped the May 2026 Oil Market Report and the numbers are absolutely spicy. While the suits on CNBC are going to panic about "contracting demand," if you actually have two brain cells to rub together, you’ll see the supply-side squeeze of the century is unfolding right now.

World oil demand is forecast to contract by 420 kb/d y-o-y in 2026 to 104 mb/d, which is 1.3 mb/d less than the pre-war forecast. However, the real story is the absolute supply destruction happening in the background. Global oil supply dropped a further 1.8 mb/d in April alone to 95.1 mb/d. This brings the total supply losses since February to a staggering 12.8 mb/d. Do the math, demand is "shrinking" by less than half a million barrels, but we’ve lost nearly 13 million barrels of supply in just a few months. This isn't a dip, it's a structural vacuum, and the pre-war forecast is dead and buried.

While the rest of the market is fighting over AI chips, I'm over here making Wendy's regional-manager level paychecks, from the companies pumping the black gold that keeps the world turning. If you aren't looking at drillers and E&Ps when supply vanishes this fast, you're doing it wrong. Buy oil or stay poor.

Portfolio Disclosure (Name - Ticker - P/L %):

Valaris (VAL) +123.19%

Seadrill (SDRL) +104.42%

Noble (NE) +102.33%

SM Energy (SM) +74.55%

GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) +67.11%

Chord Energy (CHRD) +66.82%

Kosmos Energy (KOS) +63.16%

Crescent Energy (CRGY) +56.84%

Matador (MTDR) +41.77%

Murphy Oil (MUR) +26.68%

SunCoke Energy (SXC) +16.38%

FTAI Infra LLC (FIP) +6.41%

Peabody Energy (BTU) +3.64%

Mosaic (MOS) -1.24%

Comstock Resources (CRK) -18.67%.

Disclaimer: Not financial advice. I'm just a regard who likes the smell of crude.

Source link:

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-may-2026

Listen up you beautiful regards, the IEA just dropped the May 2026 Oil Market Report and the numbers are absolutely spicy. While the suits on CNBC are going to panic about "contracting demand," if you actually have two brain cells to rub together, you’ll see the supply-side squeeze of the century is unfolding right now.

World oil demand is forecast to contract by 420 kb/d y-o-y in 2026 to 104 mb/d, which is 1.3 mb/d less than the pre-war forecast. However, the real story is the absolute supply destruction happening in the background. Global oil supply dropped a further 1.8 mb/d in April alone to 95.1 mb/d. This brings the total supply losses since February to a staggering 12.8 mb/d. Do the math, demand is "shrinking" by less than half a million barrels, but we’ve lost nearly 13 million barrels of supply in just a few months. This isn't a dip, it's a structural vacuum, and the pre-war forecast is dead and buried.

While the rest of the market is fighting over AI chips, I'm over here making Wendy's regional-manager level paychecks, from the companies pumping the black gold that keeps the world turning. If you aren't looking at drillers and E&Ps when supply vanishes this fast, you're doing it wrong. Buy oil or stay poor.

Portfolio Disclosure (Name - Ticker - P/L %):

Valaris (VAL) +123.19%

Seadrill (SDRL) +104.42%

Noble (NE) +102.33%

SM Energy (SM) +74.55%

GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) +67.11%

Chord Energy (CHRD) +66.82%

Kosmos Energy (KOS) +63.16%

Crescent Energy (CRGY) +56.84%

Matador (MTDR) +41.77%

Murphy Oil (MUR) +26.68%

SunCoke Energy (SXC) +16.38%

FTAI Infra LLC (FIP) +6.41%

Peabody Energy (BTU) +3.64%

Mosaic (MOS) -1.24%

Comstock Resources (CRK) -18.67%.

Disclaimer: Not financial advice. I'm just a regard who likes the smell of crude.

Diskussion omkring investering i traditionel olie og gas er utvivlsomt steget efter starten på US/Iran krigen og den associerede nedlukning af Hormuzstrædet, DR bragte for nyligt en mini-dokumentar om netop Hormuzstrædets nedlukning og dets påvirkning på energipriser, jeg har også selv skrevet om det herinde og i andre subreddits, jeg er dog stadig af den overbevisning at den kollektive eksponering mod O&G blandt danske detail-investorer, enten gennem aktier eller direkte eksponering via råvarer derivater, er relativt begrænset, deraf denne poll.

Denne poll er også postet i r/aktietips, da jeg er nysgerrig på om resultaterne afviger mellem de to subreddits.

View Poll

Diskussion omkring investering i traditionel olie og gas er utvivlsomt steget efter starten på US/Iran krigen og den associerede nedlukning af Hormuzstrædet, DR bragte for nyligt en mini-dokumentar om netop Hormuzstrædets nedlukning og dets påvirkning på energipriser, jeg har også selv skrevet om det herinde og i andre subreddits, jeg er dog stadig af den overbevisning at den kollektive eksponering mod O&G blandt danske detail-investorer, enten gennem aktier eller direkte eksponering via råvarer derivater, er relativt begrænset, deraf denne poll.

Denne poll er også postet i r/dkfinance, da jeg er nysgerrig på om resultaterne afviger mellem de to subreddits.

View Poll

There is a strong fundamental thesis for Peabody but instead of doing a 1000 word write-up that nobody will actually read, here's a poem...

Oh Peabody, my soot-covered queen,

The prettiest ticker I’ve ever seen.

While bears are all fearful and analysts sigh,

Your beautiful candles are steadily high.

They said you were dead, a relic of old,

But your black dusty rocks are turning to gold.

At twenty-five bucks, you’re a sight to behold,

A story of profit that’s yet to be told.

So let them have windmills and panels of glass,

While you keep on kicking the bear market’s ass.

My portfolio’s green and my heart’s full of fire,

As Peabody Energy climbs even higher.

Positions disclosure: Long 528 shares @ 23.90

Oh Peabody, my soot-covered queen,

The prettiest ticker I’ve ever seen.

While bears are all fearful and analysts sigh,

Your beautiful candles are steadily high.

They said you were dead, a relic of old,

But your black dusty rocks are turning to gold.

At twenty-five bucks, you’re a sight to behold,

A story of profit that’s yet to be told.

So let them have windmills and panels of glass,

While you keep on kicking the bear market’s ass.

My portfolio’s green and my heart’s full of fire,

As Peabody Energy climbs even higher.

Positions disclosure: Long 528 shares @ 23.90

Hey Degens,

I want to share my current portfolio and the rationale behind a strategy that would likely make most index investors cringe. My portfolio is 100% focused on commodities, energy, and infrastructure. As you can see from the figures below, it’s been a great ride so far, particularly driven by the offshore sector, which has seen significant gains.

Current Portfolio:

VAL - Valaris - Offshore Drilling +118%

NE - Noble Corp - Offshore Drilling +98%

SDRL - Seadrill - Offshore Drilling +98%

CHRD - Chord Energy - US O&G +60%

SM - SM Energy - US O&G +64%

GPRK - GeoPark - International O&G +57%

CRGY - Crescent Energy - US O&G +53%

KOS - Kosmos Energy - International O&G +45%

MTDR - Matador Resources - US O&G +38%

MUR - Murphy Oil - International O&G +21%

FIP - FTAI Infra - Infrastructure +15%

SXC - SunCoke Energy - Coal +13%

BTU - Peabody Energy - Coal -1%

MOS - Mosaic - Fertilizer -2%

CRK - Comstock Resources - US O&G -22%

Why this extremely focused approach?

The rationale behind my portfolio rests on three main pillars: Underinvestment, Free Cash Flow (FCF), and M&A potential.

The Offshore Cycle (VAL, NE, SDRL)

This is where the big gains have been made. After nearly a decade of extreme underinvestment in offshore drilling, the market for advanced "drillships" and "jackups" has become extremely tight.

Companies like Valaris and Noble have cleaned up their balance sheets (often through restructuring after 2020) and now own the most modern fleets. Day rates are rising because virtually no new vessels are being built. This is a supply story more than a demand story.

US O&G (CHRD, SM, CRGY, MTDR, CRK)

In the US, we are seeing a massive wave of consolidation. Chord and Matador are examples of "best-in-class" operators acquiring smaller players to achieve economies of scale and longer "inventory" (locations to drill). These companies have very high FCF margins at an oil price of $80. Instead of spending money on aggressive growth, they are now returning the majority to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. They have become "value stocks" rather than "growth stocks."

International O&G (KOS, GPRK, MUR)

To get some diversification within the energy sector, I hold Kosmos (focused on Ghana/Mauritania) and GeoPark (Colombia/Argentina). Kosmos is exciting due to their LNG projects, which have just commenced operations; this will transform their cash flow profile.

The Smaller Positions (MOS, BTU, SXC)

Mosaic (fertilizer) is suffering during cyclical lows, but fundamentally, the world needs food, and the soil needs nutrients, so it’s a matter of patience. Peabody (Metallurgical and Thermal coal) faced headwinds during the startup phase of their new coal mine, but most of that should be behind them. Metallurgical coal is weaker, but this is offset by strong demand for Thermal coal from Asia due to the Hormuz disruptions. SunCoke (Coking coal) faced headwinds from a contract breach by one of their major customers, but this is balanced by new long-term contracts that ensure stable, high FCF margins supporting the dividend.

Isn’t it risky?

Yes, absolutely. My portfolio has an extremely high correlation with oil prices and global commodity cycles. If we hit a deep global recession, all of this will go down the drain at the same time.

So why do I do it?

I prefer to own the assets the world actually uses today, rather than paying sky-high multiples for companies that *might* make money in 2035.

Hey r/stocks,

I want to share my current portfolio and the rationale behind a strategy that would likely make most index investors cringe. My portfolio is 100% focused on commodities, energy, and infrastructure. As you can see from the figures below, it’s been a great ride so far, particularly driven by the offshore sector, which has seen significant gains.

Current Portfolio:

VAL - Valaris - Offshore Drilling +118%

NE - Noble Corp - Offshore Drilling +98%

SDRL - Seadrill - Offshore Drilling +98%

CHRD - Chord Energy - US O&G +60%

SM - SM Energy - US O&G +64%

GPRK - GeoPark - South American O&G +57%

CRGY - Crescent Energy - US O&G +53%

KOS - Kosmos Energy - International O&G +45%

MTDR - Matador Resources - US O&G +38%

MUR - Murphy Oil - International O&G +21%

FIP - FTAI Infra - Infrastructure +15%

SXC - SunCoke Energy - Coking Coal +13%

BTU - Peabody Energy - Coal -1%

MOS - Mosaic - Fertilizer -2%

CRK - Comstock Resources - Natural Gas -22

Why this extremely focused approach?

The rationale behind my portfolio rests on three main pillars: Underinvestment, Free Cash Flow (FCF), and M&A potential.

The Offshore Cycle (VAL, NE, SDRL)

This is where the big gains have been made. After nearly a decade of extreme underinvestment in offshore drilling, the market for advanced "drillships" and "jackups" has become extremely tight.

Companies like Valaris and Noble have cleaned up their balance sheets (often through restructuring after 2020) and now own the most modern fleets. Day rates are rising because virtually no new vessels are being built. This is a supply story more than a demand story.

US O&G (CHRD, SM, CRGY, MTDR, CRK)

In the US, we are seeing a massive wave of consolidation. Chord and Matador are examples of "best-in-class" operators acquiring smaller players to achieve economies of scale and longer "inventory" (locations to drill). These companies have very high FCF margins at an oil price of $80. Instead of spending money on aggressive growth, they are now returning the majority to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. They have become "value stocks" rather than "growth stocks."

International O&G (KOS, GPRK, MUR)

To get some diversification within the energy sector, I hold Kosmos (focused on Ghana/Mauritania) and GeoPark (Colombia). Kosmos is exciting due to their LNG projects, which have just commenced operations; this will transform their cash flow profile.

The Smaller Positions (MOS, BTU, SXC)

Mosaic (fertilizer) is suffering during cyclical lows, but fundamentally, the world needs food, and the soil needs nutrients, so it’s a matter of patience. Peabody (Metallurgical and Thermal coal) faced headwinds during the startup phase of their new coal mine, but most of that should be behind them. Metallurgical coal is weaker, but this is offset by strong demand for Thermal coal from Asia due to the Hormuz disruptions. SunCoke (Coking coal) faced headwinds from a contract breach by one of their major customers, but this is balanced by new long-term contracts that ensure stable, high FCF margins supporting the dividend.

Isn’t it risky?

Yes, absolutely. My portfolio has an extremely high correlation with oil prices and global commodity cycles. If we hit a deep global recession, all of this will go down the drain at the same time.

So why do I do it?

I prefer to own the assets the world actually uses today, rather than paying sky-high multiples for companies that *might* make money in 2035.

Hej r/aktietips,

Jeg vil gerne dele min nuværende portefølje og rationalet bag en strategi, der nok vil få de fleste indeksinvestorer til at korse sig. Min portefølje er 100% fokuseret på råvarer, energi og infrastruktur.

Som I kan se på tallene herunder, har det indtil videre været en god fest, særligt drevet af offshore-sektoren, som har oplevet pæne stigninger

Porteføljen lige nu:

VAL - Valaris - Offshore Drilling +118%

NE - Noble Corp - Offshore Drilling +98%

SDRL - Seadrill - Offshore Drilling +98%

CHRD - Chord Energy - US O&G +60%

SM - SM Energy - US O&G +64%

GPRK - GeoPark - International O&G +57%

CRGY - Crescent Energy - US O&G +53%

KOS - Kosmos Energy - International O&G +45%

MTDR - Matador Resources - US O&G +38%

MUR - Murphy Oil - International O&G +21%

FIP - FTAI Infra - Infrastruktur +15%

SXC - SunCoke Energy - kul +13%

BTU - Peabody Energy - Kul -1%

MOS - Mosaic - Gødning -2%

CRK - Comstock Resources - US O&G -22%

Hvorfor den her ekstremt fokuserede tilgang?

Rationalet bag min portefølje hviler på tre hovedsøjler, Underinvestering, Free Cash Flow og M&A potentiale.

Offshore-cyklen (VAL, NE, SDRL)

Det er her, de store gevinster er hentet. Efter næsten et årti med ekstrem underinvestering i offshore-boring, er markedet for de avancerede "drillships" og "jackups" blevet ekstremt stramt.

Selskaber som Valaris og Noble har ryddet op i balancen (ofte gennem rekonstruktioner efter 2020) og ejer nu de mest moderne flåder. Dagraterne stiger, fordi der stort set ikke bygges nye skibe. Det er en udbudshistorie, mere end en efterspørgselshistorie.

US Shale (CHRD, SM, CRGY, MTDR, CRK)

I USA ser vi en gigantisk bølge af konsolidering. Chord og Matador er eksempler på "best-in-class" operatører, der opkøber mindre spillere for at få stordriftsfordele og længere "inventory" (steder at bore). De her selskaber har meget høje FCF margin er ved en oliepris på $80. I stedet for at bruge pengene på vild vækst, sender de nu størstedelen tilbage til aktionærerne via udbytter og tilbagekøb. De er blevet "value-aktier" fremfor "vækst-aktier".

International O&G (KOS, GPRK, MUR)

For at få lidt diversificering inden for energisektoren har jeg Kosmos (fokus på Ghana/Mauretanien) og GeoPark (Colombia/Argentina). Kosmos er spændende pga. deres LNG-projekter, som lige har påbegyndt drift, det vil transformere deres cash flow profil.

De mindre positioner (MOS, BTU, SXC)

Mosaic (gødning) lider under cykliske lavpunkter, men fundamentalt set skal verden bruge mad, og jorden skal bruge næring, så det er et spørgsmål om tålmodighed. Peabody (Metallurgical og Termisk kul), har set modstand i opstartsfasen af deres nye kulmine men det meste af det bør være bag dem, Metallurgical kul har svagere men modsvares af stærk efterspørgsel på Termisk kul fra Asien pga. Hormuz forstyrrelsen. SunCoke (Cooking kul), har set modstand fra kontraktbrud fra en af deres større kunder men det modsvares af nye langsigtede kontrakter der sikre stabile, høje FCF marginer som understøtter udbyttet.

Er det ikke risikabelt?

Jo, absolut. Min portefølje har en ekstremt høj korrelation med olieprisen og de globale råvare cyklusser. Hvis vi rammer en dyb global recession, ryger alt dette i kælderen samtidig.

Men hvorfor gør jeg det så?

Jeg foretrækker at eje de aktiver, verden reelt bruger i dag, fremfor at betale tårnhøje multipler for virksomheder, der måske tjener penge i 2035.