r/stocks

I have $72.5k in an Amex HYSA, $47.5k in stocks (GOOGL, AVGO, AMZN, NVDA, TCEHY), $7.5k in a Roth IRA (VOO, VXUS), and a few thousand in crypto (BTC). I try to keep around 10k min in my bank account between paying off loans and expenses.

I realize my investments are all in tech and therefore risky. Would it make more sense to diversify and invest more into stock or have a safety net with higher risk stocks?

Nvidia and AMD are entirely dependent on South Korean high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and enterprise DRAM to build their AI data centers and GPU servers. The market is already tightly constrained. If Samsung's supply drops by even 3%, the bottleneck will paralyze their shipment schedules. No chips shipped = missed earnings = a 20% valuation haircut overnight

Apple
Samsung is the primary supplier for the OLED screens and NAND flash memory used in iPhones.
The Impact: Apple relies heavily on "just-in-time" manufacturing, meaning they don't store months of extra parts. A major disruption right before Apple ramps up production for their next-generation iPhone cycle threatens to trigger component shortages and shipping delays.

Nvidia has begun shipping its new Vera AI CPUs to OpenAI, Anthropic, Oracle, and SpaceX’s AI group. These CPUs are built to work alongside Nvidia’s GPUs in the Vera Rubin platform, aimed at larger AI training and inference workloads.

The timing is feels ("hmm") planned because Nvidia reports earnings after the bell tomorrow. It gives a concrete signal that some of the biggest AI developers are taking delivery of the next piece of Nvidia’s hardware stack. By offering CPUs that pair directly with their own GPUs and networking,

For NVDA, this adds to the picture of steady demand from the largest players. The stock has traded in a wide range lately as yields moved and the broader market pulled back. I’ve been following the buildup with getclaw, and I’ve already pulled out some funds that I want to rotate into futures around these AI-related headlines.

It also puts some focus on competitors. Companies like AMD and INTC have been pushing their own AI hardware, and moves like this show how Nvidia is trying to close off parts of the stack.

Curious what others are making of it. Does the pre-earnings shipment change anything in how you’re looking at NVDA, or does it feel like business as usual?

Here we go, again... after moving on from LION - I have picked my next 12-month forecast stock.

Chewy. $CHWY - the only negative is it was founded by Ryan Cohen, the rest is a positive story.

80% recurring revenue, essentially no debt, net cash position, 12 billion in annual sales (80% of which are auto-ship) - expansion into pet care, etc.

The stock dropped 10% today on news that the CEO said the 'consumers' are stretched. What are you going to do, let your pet die? Boil chicken that is about to expire to offset the cost of kibble? They still need food, treats, toys, medication & more! Chewy revenue is more recurring than buying hand made goods on $ETSY - and their selection is still way more robust than Amazon $AMZN and fairly priced.

You really don't have other options in the current market, going to Petco is if you forgot to order a one-off item, and you're paying a premium for almost everything over Chewy.

Gen Z loves their dogs over expansion of population with human legs - I don't see this company fairly valued and believe it should be a $14-18 billion E/V based purely on efficiencies they can create integration AI and pet care. Their active shopping base is huge.

My position is 500 6-month contracts & 50,000 shares.

I know this post is a bit sarcastic, but the point is, at its core, a bit unique compared to other 'discretionary' marketplaces - your pet is not discretionary.

Lately the stock market feels weirdly exhausting.Not because everything is crashing.Honestly I think this kind of market is mentally harder.When you are sitting on cash, you are scared of missing the next move higher.When you are fully invested, you start wondering if you bought too close to the top. You watch your watchlist rally and feel underexposed. You watch it pull back and suddenly question your entire thesis.I feel like a lot of us are stuck in this exact mindset right now. AI stocks still dominate the conversation.Some people are convinced we are still early.Some are quietly trimming positions because valuations are getting harder to ignore.And then there are people who keep telling themselves they will buy the next dip.Until the dip actually arrives and suddenly nobody feels brave anymore.After years of investing, I am starting to think picking stocks is not actually the hardest part.The hardest part is staying confident in your own strategy when the market noise gets louder every single week.Curious where everyone stands right now.Still buying aggressively.Playing more defense.Or sitting on cash waiting for a clearer setup.

Tesla has always had a pretty ludicrous P/E, and this year in particular, running a negative cashflow looks pretty rough. But I understand the case that was made in the past; the company is building out tech infrastructure to become far more than a car company. My question is; can that case still be made?

AI has been siponed to SpaceX, general futurism enthusiasm has been siphoned to SpaceX, and what good engineers and programmers there were at the company have been lured to competitors and/or SpaceX. At this point Tesla really does seem to be just a car company, or at most a car and cab company with a poorly integrated battery chain. I understand the pessimistic case really well. But what optimistic case still exists supporting current market valuations of the company?

Bond yields are ripping higher at an astounding pace. 5% is within reach for the 10 year. And it makes perfect sense given the indefinite closure of Hormuz, painfully high inflation, and increasing expectations for a Fed rate hike.

Yet markets are only 2-3% off all time highs. And just as surprising, the VIX is barely moving higher. Markets have reacted much more violently to similar conditions in the past. When yields made a similar move last year during the Liberation day fiasco, stocks dropped over 15%. So why are stocks barely reacting this time?

I understand tech earnings have been solid. Yet non-tech heavy indices like the dow and russell are also barely off all time highs. Rate sensitive indices full of profitless companies should have been crushed by high yields.

I personally suspect the muted market reaction is due to expectations that Trump will cave in to rising yet yields again. For context, he eased back on his tariff threats last April after the 10yr exceeded 4.6% and the 30yr exceeded 5%, and specifically cited high bond yields as the reason for granting global tariff relief. Well yields are now higher than they were last year.

Are markets expecting Trump to make policy decisions based on high yields again this year? If yields exceed his pain threshold, he could just walk away from the Iran war and privately give in to Iran's demands for concessions. Does this seem to be the base case the markets are pricing in?

Find the link to the interview in the comments below (this sub bans YT links in posts).

During an interview for Bloomberg, Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ryanair, low-cost European airline, said:

>"At Ryanair, we typically hedge 80% of our fuel. We're 80% hedged out to March 2027, $67 a barrel. We're in great shape. Apart from the fact that our share price has tanked in the last 2 weeks, because everyone is like 'Oh, they're an airline'. We just reported full year results, 208 million passengers, 2.26 billion Euros profit after tax, spitting off cash to shareholders, share buybacks."

>"Some of the flaky competitors in Europe will get taken out in carrier baskets by about September/October, because they're not hedged on oil and they're borrowed up to their eye balls in net debt."

>"There is nothing in Europe you would want to buy. It's all crap. It will go bust, you know, in the not too distant future."

>"Ryanair will continue to dominate the short haul space in Europe because we have much lower fares and much lower cost. We're the only really low fare low cost carrier in Europe. There's a few other low fare not so low cost carriers in Europe, but they're all going to go the same way as Spirit and Frontier in the States."

>"I think there's a real sea change this year of people who would historically have gone to The Middle East, or using The Middle East carriers to connect to long haul, probably going to stay at home in Europe this summer."

>"[Reporter's question: When will Europe run out of jet fuel?] It won't. There was a real concern back in April. There was real worries over supply, jet supply. We met all of our fuel suppliers in Paris last week. There's no issues over jet fuel supply right now through to the end of September. Most of Europe's Jet A-1 supply comes from West Africa, The Americas, Norway, and the lifting of Russian sanctions has also eased the supply of Jet A-1 into Eastern European countries."

>"I'm very concerned about the price of oil. But I don't believe the conflict in Iran will have any disruption on European jet supplies."

>"The question for us is 'How long will the Strait of Hormuz remain closed?'. If it remains closed until March 2027, because of our own hedge, our unit cost might rise mid-single digits this year."

>"We bought 80% of our jet fuel requirements out to March 2027 at $67 a barrel. So we're in great shape."

>"If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until September, October, or November, then our unit cost will be up about 5%."

>"[Reporter's question: Which airlines are failing?] Air Baltic, which was recently bailed out by the Latvia government which gave it a 30 million loan to get them from June through to August. But they have to repay the loan in August. I mean good luck with trying to get that repaid at the end of August."

I tend to agree with him on this.

Though, I've seen people argue that their hedge on jet fuel doesn't mean much if the global supply of jet fuel stops... Which is true. But as he mentioned, Europe's jet fuel supplies come from US, Norway and West Africa, so it shouldn't be impacted.

But still... why is everyone panicked about this summer's airline travels in Europe, then?

What's your opinion on this? What do you think about his statement?

I’ve been reflecting on the gold market quite a bit lately, and the patterns that are emerging suggest we’re in for a substantial rise over the next 6-18 months.

Real interest rates have been climbing, which explains some of the recent pressure on gold prices since it pays no yield. With inflation holding around 3.8 percent and nominal yields elevated, the opportunity cost argument has weighed on the metal in the short run. These conditions look increasingly temporary when viewed against the larger picture but they’ve provided a beautiful dip that’s ripe for the picking.

Central banks continue aggressive accumulation, especially across emerging markets. This is no fleeting impulse. It reflects a structural shift away from over-reliance on the dollar amid historic global debt levels. Governments face powerful incentives toward debasement, and gold serves as one of the few assets outside that system. Geopolitical tensions further bolster its role as a safe haven when institutional trust erodes.

What stands out to me is how dramatically more accessible gold has become for everyday investors. Simple ETFs and digital platforms allow participation with just a few clicks. The conversation around these dynamics is becoming mainstream, which can create positive feedback loops as more people move in.

Longer term, like 30-50 years, there’s possibly a fascinating evolutionary mismatch. For our entire history, gold’s pricing has rested on its profound scarcity, a product of terrestrial constraints. Yet advances in space mining, particularly targeting metal-rich asteroids, could one day introduce supply on a scale that challenges that ancient equilibrium. The potential for abundance in what was always assumed to be finite makes the current window especially compelling.

Overall, the incentives and structural factors point to gold moving meaningfully higher. Curious to hear your perspectives on this.

I currently have a few hundred thousand dollars invested in the market, primarily in VOO, with a portion allocated to SMH, VTI, VGT, SCHD, QQQ, and VXUS.

A Morgan Stanley financial advisor wants to create a proposal to manage my portfolio and minimize the risk of losing more than 30% or 50% of my assets in a bearish market.

I’m wondering if it’s worth investing in a financial advisor for the amount I’ve invested (300k). I understand that many of these stocks are correlated and overlapping, but I’m also curious to know if the stocks I’ve chosen will eventually yield a return or could they drop 30-50% like they make you think

This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on technical analysis (TA), but if TA is not your thing then just ignore the theme.

Some helpful day to day links, including news:

• Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocks
• Bloomberg market news
• StreetInsider news:
  • Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dips
  • Reuters aggregated - Global news

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Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions.

The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as "priced in"): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.

TA can be useful on any timeframe, both short and long term.

Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks

If you have questions, please see the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

Indicator - Trade Signals - Lagging Indicator - Leading Indicator - Oversold - Overbought - Divergence - Whipsaw - Resistance - Support - Breakout/Breakdown - Alerts - Trend line - Market Participants - Moving average - RSI - VWAP - MACD - ATR - Bollinger Bands - Ichimoku clouds - Methods - Trend Following - Fading - Channels - Patterns - Pivots

See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

Look at these charts over the last week or so, crazy climbs. People think this is the place to go when bailing out of semi's? CRWD has NEVER made a profit, no PE ratio at all and went from $440 on 5/1 to $625? Crazy overbought. And COST which is a much bigger spend in high inflation times than Walmart or Amazon, from $990 on 5/11 to $1090? I own both but this is extreme, must be very narrowly trained algo's pushing these

I've been staring at the SPY chart and noticed something that doesn't sit right. Since the March 30 trough, SPY hasn't just recovered.

It was in fact 18% above the trough and 8% higher than the old high.

But volume tells a completely different story.

Average daily volume since the trough is 53.8M shares, compared to 88.3M in Q1.

That's a 39% drop. It dropped fast and has flatlined around 48M, roughly half the Q1 average.

So what's going on?

EDITs:

1. The numbers are for SPY only. I did check across major S&P500 indexed ETFs (SPY+VOO+IVV+SPLG), in aggregate the total volume did drop 38% post the March trough. Same story as SPY. So looking at SPY seems sufficient.

2. SPY volume by year below. 2024 saw low volume but had a great run. So low volume is not be bad necessarily according to history. BTW, has SPY volume been trending down since 2020?

● 2020: 100.4M (avg daily volume), +17.2% (return)

● 2021: 73.8M, +30.5%

● 2022: 94.8M, -18.6%

● 2023: 81.9M, +26.7%

● 2024: 57.4M, +25.6%

● 2025: 72.4M, +18.0%

AI / Tech is pretty much my specialty because of my job but, I want to diversify.

I've held VOO, Brk.b but that's about it.

Whenever I go into other sectors I feel i'm just randomly guessing. And usually bad things happen for me.

I've considered costco, novo nordisk, eli lily, byd (tesla competitor).

Novo nordisk was an interesting one because my doc recommended i try ozempic for diabetes and i start losing weight and I thought a lot of americans would get this prescribed. What i didn't expect was that Medicare was going to enforce a maximum payout for the prescription and tank the stock. Kind of dodged a bullet there.

Is any industry growing besides AI / tech?

I’m 16 and got into investing a few years ago through a stock market simulation. Back then I wasn’t super serious about it, but over time I genuinely became interested in researching companies, markets, and long-term investing. The issue is that my dad still sees me as someone who just goes off instinct or hype, even though I really try not to.

One example was Wheaton Precious Metals. I bought it in the simulation(at $56.23) , saw strong potential, and told my dad about it. He asked me for deeper research and evidence, and honestly at the time I struggled to communicate my reasoning well enough. He ended up not investing, and since then the stock has grown a lot.(Now 1$29.49) There have also been multiple other stocks I predicted would rise that ended up doing well.

. I just want him to understand that I really care about this and that I’m trying to learn seriously instead of gambling or following trends blindly. I also have an income stream so it'd be my money that ill be managing in my portfolio

I don’t think eVTOLs are going to be a major thing anytime soon. A flying car sounds cool, but it just doesn’t fit into how society works right now. It’s not like an eVTOL can just pick you up from the middle of a normal street. There will be stations you still have to drive to, and after landing you’ll still need to walk or get a rideshare to your final destination.

To me, it seems like it’ll end up being more of a high-end option for wealthy individuals. Something convenient for those who can afford to spend a few hundred dollars to skip traffic/save time or travel between nearby cities. Helicopters have existed for decades, and regular people still don’t use them to commute. Sure, helicopters are loud, and people complained, but I’m sure folks will find plenty to complain about with eVTOLs too. That includes everyday citizens and those with financial interests who’d prefer eVTOLs stay limited.

And honestly, I don’t think the technology is quite there to make them practical for most people. But that’s just my take. What do you all think?

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-global-markets-2026-05-19/

Global markets were mixed on Tuesday as investors reacted to lower oil prices and comments from President Donald Trump about possible progress in U.S.-Iran talks. His remarks raised hopes that tensions in the Middle East could ease, helping push oil prices lower and reducing some inflation concerns.

Asian markets traded lower while European stocks saw modest gains as investors remained cautious ahead of key economic data and major earnings reports. Traders are also closely watching bond yields, inflation risks, and upcoming results from Nvidia, which are expected to have a major impact on the tech sector and overall market sentiment.