The REAL stadium ownership issue
Unfortunately, I do believe the fact that the Whitecaps don't own their stadium is the main factor making relocation likely - but not for the reasons being pushed in the media. The narrative we keep hearing is that the Whitecaps aren't getting a big enough cut of concessions, parking, and other stadium revenue streams, and that a better lease or a new soccer specific stadium (at the PNE or wherever) would fix the problem. I don't think either of those options make sense in reality, and the fact that neither the current owners nor any potential buyer seems to be seriously pursuing either option supports this.
The real issue isn't revenue split percentages, it's that the owner of the stadium needs to own the team, because stadium ownership is what financially ties an owner to the city. And for that to actually work, the stadium itself needs to be the primary profit engine - either through the revenue it generates hosting events all year round, or through the underlying real estate appreciating in value. Concessions and parking during Whitecaps games are rounding errors in that equation. MLS has 34 regular season games, so 17 home games. Parking and beer sales from 17 games are not going to bridge the gap to a $400M franchise valuation. But if you own the stadium and the team that plays in it, you have a fundamental vested interest in keeping that team in that city. You'd either hold both, or sell both as a package, but you would never sell the team to someone who relocates it out of your building.
So why doesn't the PNE MOU, or any new dedicated soccer stadium in the region, actually solve this? Because a standalone soccer stadium with only 17 home games needs to be booked constantly with other events to justify its existence - concerts, trade shows, other sports, etc. The problem is Vancouver already has a number of venues competing for these events - BC Place, Rogers Arena, Pacific Coliseum, the new PNE Amphitheatre for the World Cup, and even the Convention Centre. A new outdoor soccer-specific stadium would be competing for the scraps at the bottom of that list - and that's before you consider it might be one of three venues fighting for events at the PNE site alone. Best case scenario, you land the BC Lions and a handful of random events per year. But when you already have a world-class stadium like BC Place in a city this size, it's genuinely hard to make the case for a second, smaller, less accessible one.
The uncomfortable conclusion is this - the Whitecaps don't just need to own a stadium, they need to own BC Place. Unfortunately, it would almost certainly be prohibitively expensive for any private owner, and the Provincial Government would never buy the team. But as far as I can see, they're the only party where the math could actually work - and that's precisely why this problem probably doesn't get solved.
Really hope I am wrong about this...