Polymarket has Democrats at 81% to win the House in 2026 after this “we’re going to win anyway” media hit, so are Republicans sleepwalking into a midterm wipeout?
u/YellowAltruistic9843 — 19 hours ago
r/policymarket
The push for a Venezuelan 51st State as Trump argues for annexation based on oil wealth and popularity, leading prediction markets to give it a higher probability (5.4%) than Puerto Rico.
u/Niviozynk — 1 day ago
NYT just published the very long list for 2028 and Polymarket has Gavin Newsom sitting at 17% to win while half the party acts like he’s not running
u/Spirited-Gold9629 — 5 days ago
Trump’s revenge tour has reached Louisiana and Kalshi is pricing Letlow at 80% while Cassidy is stuck at 4.4%
u/Spirited-Gold9629 — 4 days ago
Netanyahu calls NYT detainee abuse essay a “distorted lie” as Israel plans lawsuit. Traders predict that there is 41% chance Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election.
u/Murky-Option2916 — 5 days ago
Thomas Massie’s Polymarket lead shrinks after ex girlfriend’s $5,000 hush money allegation goes public
u/Spirited-Gold9629 — 6 days ago
“I want to draw down to zero the American financial support,” says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He said it was “absolutely” the right time to reset financial ties with Washington as Israel strengthens relations with Gulf states. Traders predict a 6% chance Trump will meet with Netanyah
u/Murky-Option2916 — 7 days ago
Will Kash Patel get the boot? Former Trump aide predicts he's out by Labor Day over alcohol use, while prediction markets give him a 64% chance of being gone by Dec 31.
u/Niviozynk — 9 days ago
"Thank you very much Bibi" might be the easiest Polymarket cashout of the month and Netanyahu is still sitting at 78%
u/YellowAltruistic9843 — 9 days ago
U.S. President Donald Trump said that he expects to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, praising what he described as strong economic relations between the United States and China. Traders are giving 99% chance that Trump will meet President Xi Jinping with in 2026.
u/Murky-Option2916 — 12 days ago
Trump jokes about staying in office for “8 or 9” more years, despite the U.S. Constitution limiting presidents to two four-year terms. But the prediction markets give him only 3% chance to win the 2028 presidential election.
u/Itchy-Shoulder771 — 14 days ago
Vladimir Putin is reportedly stepping up his personal security after warnings of a possible coup or assassination attempt, while traders predict only a 10% chance he leaves power before 2027.
u/Itchy-Shoulder771 — 14 days ago