r/oscarrace

'Michael' - Review Thread
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'Michael' - Review Thread

The story of pop superstar Michael Jackson -- from his extraordinary early days in the Jackson 5 to the visionary artist whose creative ambition fuels a relentless pursuit to become the biggest entertainer in the world.

Director: Antoine Fuqua

Cast: Jaafar Jackson, Colman Domingo, Miles Teller, Laura Harrier, Nia Long, Kat Graham, Juliano Valdi, Kendrick Sampson

Rotten Tomatoes: N/A (updating)

Metacritic: 44 / 100

Some Reviews (updating):

AwardsWatch - Jay Ledbetter - 'D'

>It’s Bad, It’s Bad (Really, Really Bad). Perhaps the most ironic thing about Michael is that it very regularly flashes scenes from some of cinema’s great films over the course of two hours. The Michael Jackson in Michael is a true blue cinephile, taking in classics like Singin’ in the Rain, Modern Times, Dawn of the Dead, and several others.  We see these films on televisions Michael is watching. It is a copy of a copy. In the same way that the Michael Jackson performances in Michael are cheap imitations of things that already exist, Antoine Fuqua shows the potential for creative triumph in a film that lacks any such creativity.  Lacking any sense of style or personal point of view, Michael is an exercise in mimicry. Give Madame Tussaud $150 million and I’m confident she could make something more or less as artful as Michael. It’s a nine-figure wax museum. 

DiscussingFilm - Yasmine Kandil - 3.5 / 5

>Despite its technical flaws and position as a “first part” to a bigger picture, Michael stands as an entertaining experience that fans are going to have a blast with. As crazy as it sounds, this may be the first deep dive into Michael Jackson’s prolific career for a rising generation. With that in mind, it genuinely gets the job done. Antoine Fuqua’s Michael biopic is a portrait that finds its greatest strengths when surrendering to music and performance, leaving other aspects to waver. Although uneven, the film is never dull or lacking in ambition. In the moments where all the stars align, it captures the lightning-in-a-bottle sensation of seeing one of history’s greatest entertainers right before your eyes. 

The Independent - Clarisse Loughrey - 1 / 5

>The Michael Jackson movie biopic is a ghoulish, soulless cash grab - All it does is recreate, in mechanical style, the most famous visuals of Jackson’s career. It’s certainly easier that way. Why bother to depict a human being when you can simply turn them into a product?

USA Today - Melissa Rugieri - 3 / 4

>Jaafar may share his late uncle’s megawatt smile, lithe frame and Bambi eyelashes. But his liquid dance moves -- highlighted as he teaches gang members the footwork in the “Beat It” video -- and soft-spoken cadence are studied to perfection.

Slant Magazine - Derek Smith - 1.5 / 4

>There’s irony in the acknowledgement of Joe’s obsession with expanding and protecting the Jackson brand, as the film is very much part of that ongoing effort, presenting Michael as a supremely talented, sensitive soul while smoothing over anything remotely troublesome. As magnetic as Jaafar Jackson is during the film’s musical performances, he still can’t quite capture his uncle’s protean, preternatural talents, as immortalized in countless YouTube clips, so even Michael’s more memorable moments seem beside the point when those clips are available at the click of a mouse. But even if he had, it would still be difficult to ignore just how much this almost surreally upbeat biopic looks at Michael Jackson with blinders on, turning the realities of a tragic, deeply complicated life into a sanitized popcorn film.

The Guardian - Peter Bradshaw - 2 / 5

>This is a frustratingly shallow, inert picture, a kind of cruise-ship entertainment, which can’t quite bring itself to show that Michael was an abuse victim, brutalised by his father and robbed of his childhood. Perhaps this is because it would have a cause-and-effect implication, gesturing tactlessly at the story’s second half which may or may not happen in a couple of years, the part of Jackson’s life in which his behaviour was increasingly perplexing, dangling a baby over a hotel balcony – as well as facing sexual abuse allegations. Jaafar Jackson makes an honest effort at showing Michael, and there are some amusing moments, such as the making of the Thriller video, with Michael insouciantly (and quite possibly accurately) telling director John Landis how to do his job. But that brief film has more energy and authenticity than this.

DEADLINE - Pete Hammond

>Michael in fact did originally shoot scenes involving one of his accusers but all of that was cut and the film went through multi-million dollar reshoots resulting in what is clearly now a feel good, almost inspiring origin tale of this incredibly talented and visionary artist who paved a path away from his family roots to emerge a singular musical superstar like no other. Whether intentionally or just lucking into it, this MIchael is the film fans will line up for more than once, a chance to see this genius up close and in IMAX like never before.

RogerEbert - Robert Daniels - 1 / 4

>The King of Pop’s potent songs will certainly paper over some of these technical deficiencies. But they can’t obscure the fact that, unlike its subject, “Michael” isn’t artistically unique, immediately admirable, or boundary pushing. It’s beyond safe and so unchallenging. You’re better off either queuing up the Jacksons miniseries or marathoning Michael’s incredible music videos than watching shoddy recreations of them. 

Next Best Picture - Josh Parham - 4 / 10

>There are very dark chapters in Michael Jackson’s life that one would not expect a film with the full endorsement of his estate to approve. It’s understandable, even expected, for these kinds of works. But what makes “Michael“ come underneath that generously low bar is that it refuses to paint its subject as anything less than saintly. It truly feels like this version of Jackson has been deified, shown to be consumed by his talent but without any dramatic stakes to accompany his triumphs. The tribulations are trivial in comparison, and with very little conflict, the momentum moves at a dull pace with little to appreciate beyond the established music. Sure, you can get excited by hearing a song that’s been filling you with joy for decades, but there is no captivating aura beyond that, extending to the vast majority of the cast as well. The long march of musician biopics will continue after this one, even in that assumed continuation of this very story. However, it’s still bewildering just how empty it ends up becoming.

The Film Verdict - Alonso Durade - 3.5 / 10

>Movies about artists, ideally, celebrate the art while also providing a glimpse into the blood, sweat, and tears behind its creation, but any exciting moments here can be found in their original, natural state on YouTube. Michael has no ambitions beyond being its own commemorative souvenir booklet.

u/ChiefLeef22 — 2 hours ago
🔥 Hot ▲ 57 r/oscarrace

‘Michael’ Director Antoine Fuqua Questions Some Michael Jackson Allegations: ‘Sometimes People Do Nasty Things for Some Money’

This just can’t be good for this movies Oscar chances right?

variety.com
u/jaidynr21 — 11 hours ago

Weekly Discussion Thread 4/20/26 - 4/27/26

Still from Dazed and Confused

Please use this space to share reviews, ask questions, and discuss freely about anything film or Oscar related. Engage with other comments if you want others to engage with yours! And as always, please remain civil and kind with one another.

Link to previous thread

———————————————————————————

Coming up in the awards race

———————————————————————————

Film Discussion Threads

The Drama

Project Hail Mary

Hoppers

The Bride!

Wuthering Heights

All Film Discussion Threads

———————————————————————————

Award Expert Profile Swap (2026 Edition)

Letterboxd Profile Swap (2026 Edition)

u/PointMan528491 — 1 day ago
🔥 Hot ▲ 100 r/oscarrace

Sean Baker Scores Massive Payday for ‘Anora’ Follow-Up at Warner Bros. Label Clockwork: Inside the Deal for “Ti Amo!” (EXCLUSIVE)

Some interesting tidbits here:

> "Clockwork bought the distribution rights to “Ti Amo!” for an eye-popping $22 million, five sources familiar with the deal tell Variety. Baked into that number is the film’s budget, which is being financed by FilmNation and is expected to be north of $10 million. The final cost of the film won’t be finalized until Baker completes a script."

> "However, the surplus will be divided among FilmNation, a few other key production players and Baker, who is poised to earn a multimillion-dollar salary for his work as writer, director, editor and producer of 'Ti Amo!'"

> "Cameras are expected to roll in September. Another sign of Baker’s post-Oscar power is that the Clockwork sale was not contingent on cast, nor is he expected to hire an A-lister."

variety.com
u/PointMan528491 — 14 hours ago
🔥 Hot ▲ 143 r/oscarrace

Deadline says Lance Oppenheim and A24's 'Primetime', starring Robert Pattinson, is set for a September 2026 release. Inspired by Chris Hansen's 'To Catch A Predator', it follows Pattinson as a journalist who takes on an underworld of crime and ends up changing television forever

deadline.com
u/ChiefLeef22 — 22 hours ago

April AwardsExpert community Acting predictions for the 2027 Golden Globes

BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA

Renate Reinsve, “Fjord”

Mikey Madison, “The Social Reckoning”

Sandra Huller, “Fatherland”

Cynthia Erivo, “Prima Facie”

Virginie Efire, “All of a Sudden”

Emily Blunt, “Disclosure Day”

(7. Michelle Williams, “A Place in Hell”)

BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA

Sebastian Stan, “Fjord”

Matt Damon, “The Odyssey”

Nicholas Hoult, “Cry to Heaven”

Josh O’Connor, “Jack of Spades”

Jeremy Allen White, “The Social Reckoning”

Timothée Chalamet, “Dune: Part Three”

(7. Hanns Zischler, “Fatherland”)

BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Tom Cruise, “Digger”

Ryan Gosling, “Project Hail Mary”

John Malkovich, “Wild Horse Nine”

Brad Pitt, “The Adventures of Cliff Booth”

Robert Pattinson, “The Drama”

Jaafar Jackson, “Michael”

(7. Dominic Sessa, “Tony”)

BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Julianne Moore, “Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Musical”

Zendaya, “The Drama”

Keke Palmer, “I Love Boosters”

Meryl Streep, “The Devil Wears Prada 2”

Olivia Wilde, “The Invite”

Rachel Brosnahan, “Saturn Return”

(7. Ariana Grande, Focker-In-Law)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sandra Hüller, “Digger”

Anne Hathaway, “The Odyssey”

Parker Posey, “Wild Horse Nine”

Mariana Di Girolamo, “Wild Horse Nine”

Wunmi Mosaku, “The Social Reckoning”

Tao Okamoto, “All of a Sudden”

(7. Frances McDormand, “Jack of Spades”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Colman Domingo, “Michael”

John Goodman, “Digger”

Steve Buscemi, “Wild Horse Nine”

Paul Giamatti, “Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Musical”

Jeremy Strong, “The Social Reckoning”

Sam Rockwell, “Wild Horse Nine”

(7. Jesse Plemons, “Digger”)

u/dicapriostanaccount — 15 hours ago

My Early Oscars 2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Predictions: Top 40

  1. Digger: Combo Tom Cruise + Makeup to come. Kazu Hiro (6 nominations for 2 wins) is working on it along with other Oscar-nominated members (Alessandro Bertolazzi, Jess Brooks).
  2. Werwulf: The December release means it will be in the conversation and the makeup work will probably be impressive; moreover, this branch generally appreciates werewolf films. David White (3 nominations), Jess Brooks (1 nomination), Christine Blundell (1 win) are involved.
  3. Michael: I watched the trailer and sometimes find the makeup a bit ugly, but I have to admit there seems to be real work involved. The film's Hair & Makeup team is impressive: Ve Neill (8 nominations for 3 wins), Bill Corso (3 nominations for 1 win), Howard Berger (2 nominations for 1 win), Christopher Allen Nelson (1 win) and Christien Tinsley/Carla Farmer/Dennis Liddiard (1 nomination).
  4. Wicker: We already have some feedback since the film screened at the Sundance Festival earlier this year. It seems to be a solid crowd-pleaser (3.8 on Letterboxd) and the makeup work on Skarsgård's character is said to be impressive. The only concern here is the distribution by Black Bear, which has so far failed with its US distribution (Christy 😂).
  5. Dune 3: Dune 2 was not nominated in this category, but the December release makes me more confident about this third opus. Nothing sufficient in the trailer at the moment to get a nomination, but the film's posters suggest more significant makeup work than what has been shown so far. Love Larson (3 nominations), Eva Von Bahr (3 nominations) and Heike Merker (1 nomination) are part of the team.
  6. Clayface: A Body Horror film and the makeup work seems good; I'm curious. The issue is that the Makeup team hasn't done anything particularly notable, so I'm not quite sure what to make of it.
  7. Cry to Heaven: Not yet certain about the makeup work, but for the hairstyling, there will probably be an enormous amount of work based on the little I've heard about the book.
  8. The Odyssey: For now, based on the trailer, I have a hard time visualizing enough work in this category to get a nomination, but there may be characters with heavy makeup in the film that we haven't yet seen in the trailer. The Makeup/Hair team is huge on the IMDB page (then again, they filmed in many locations, so that makes sense). Ken Diaz (3 nominations), Conor O'Sullivan (2 nominations), Luisa Abel and Gloria Pasqua Casny (1 nomination) are part of the team.
  9. Narnia: A bit hard to know what this will look like without a trailer. I fear the work may be more subtle than we might think, since the book (not the same one as the 2005 film) seems, from what I've heard, to take place more in the real world. Ivana Primorac (7 BAFTA nominations including 1 win but never nominated at the Oscars) is working on the project.
  10. Madden: Probably the film's only Oscar prospect. The prosthetics make Nicolas Cage unrecognizable in the trailer. Lori McCoy-Bell (1 nomination) is working on it.
  11. Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol: Early photos from the set suggest some beautiful makeup work for this new Ti West film. Amanda Knight (1 nomination) and other seemingly competent people (mostly from TV series) are working on the project.
  12. The Bride: The makeup work is good but the film itself is really not great, though that doesn't necessarily matter with this branch of the Academy. Nadia Stacey (2 nominations for 1 win), Kay Georgiou (2 nominations), Nicki Ledermann & Martial Corneville (1 nomination) worked on it.
  13. Resident Evil: I'm confident about this movie and Zach Cregger name will help if the film wants to be in the awards race, but I need to see more before risking putting it in my predictions here, as films featuring "Zombies" tend to struggle in this category (as we saw with 28 Years Later last year).
  14. The Boy in the Iron Box: Nobody noticed this film, but it is based on a book co-written by Guillermo del Toro, who is also producing, and it will be distributed by Netflix. The casting call for the role of the Boy is described as: "A gothic, ageless creature with a long, gaunt face. Though youthful in his desire to cause violent mischief and mayhem, his soul is ancient and ruthless, and his voice that of an older, authoritative man. The Boy is, metaphorically, a cobra singing a lullaby: quiet and terrifying. We will come to know him as the 'Eater of Hearts', equal parts horrifying and unsettling… ROLE WILL BE AIDED BY VFX AND PROSTHETICS." As for the makeup team, it includes Cliona Furey & Mike Hill, who just won an Oscar for Frankenstein. Not 100% sure the film will be released in 2026.
  15. Hope: I don't have any information yet about the makeup for this film in competition at Cannes, but there might be some.
  16. Rose: A prosthetic on Sandra Hüller that seems well done. A nomination in this category could pair with a Best Actress nomination for Sandra Hüller, but it still seems like it may be not enough especially since the prosthetic seems designed to be discreet.
  17. Lee Cronin's The Mummy: I've seen the film the makeup was good, but it seems more complicated than for other films to get a nomination. I see it more as a film that potentially appears on the Shortlist but doesn't get nominated. Arjen Tuiten (2 nominations) is working on it.
  18. Coward: Film in competition at Cannes, and Pierre-Olivier Persin (1 Oscar win for The Substance, though he is better known in France) is working on the movie
  19. Whalefall: From what I've heard about the book, there could potentially be more makeup work than one might expect. Joel Harlow (4 nominations for 1 win) is working on it.
  20. Sanguine: I'd like to draw your attention to this French film since nobody on AwardExpert has considered it. It is screening as a Midnight Screening at Cannes and was described by Frémaux as a medical horror film. Pierre-Olivier Persin (1 Oscar win for The Substance, though he is better known in France) is working on the film. I think that if the film get attention at Cannes, it could be a contender in this category.
  21. Evil Dead Burn: Never seen an Evil Dead, but Sébastien Vanicek (Infested) is directing, i'm excited.
  22. 28 Years Later The Bone Temple: They didn't even shortlist the first one, and this one performed worse at the box office. On top of that, there are fewer infected characters than in the previous film, meaning less makeup work. I would be very surprised if it even made the shortlist. Rebecca Cole (1 nomination) is working on it.
  23. Jack of Spades: From what I can gather, it seems to be basic period hairstyling work, not much else, but you never know. Laura Blount (2 nominations for 1 win), Sarah Nuth (1 nomination) are working on the project.
  24. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping: Respect to those predicting it in this category, but it probably won't happen. First, the Hunger Games franchise has never resonated with the Academy or awards bodies in general. Second, I've seen the trailer and the makeup work is too light to earn a nomination, if it were purely a hairstyling Oscar it would make more sense to attempt predicting it.
  25. I Love Boosters: Probably not enough work, based on what I see in the trailer.
  26. The Death of Robin Hood: The work looks nice but not sufficient enough to earn a nomination. Josh Weston (1 win) is working on it.
  27. Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma: Probably not the work seems too light, the film is probably too weird for the Academy, and it's not in competition at Cannes.
  28. Sense and Sensibility: Probably just a bit of hairstyling work and nothing more. I'd be very surprised, especially since the previous 1995 adaptation wasn't nominated in this category despite receiving 7 Oscar nominations.
  29. Disclosure Day: Maybe some Aliens (with makeup work on them) are showing up at the end of the movie, but I don't think so. Judy Chin (1 win) is working on it.
  30. Being Heumann: I don't think so probably just a bit of hairstyling work, but you never know. Cliona Furey (1 win on it) is working on it
  31. The Face of Horror: Period/horror film, I don't know much about it but it looks a bit special, i won't take the risk.
  32. Terrifier 4: Sorry, but no.
  33. Fatherland: I don't think so, but I'll wait for more information before being certain about removing it.
  34. The Social Reckoning: Should not being ranked 9th on AwardExpert. I spoke with someone who saw the trailer at CinemaCon and he told me the only notable makeup is on Jeremy Strong, and it appears to be subtle.
  35. Colony: Made by the director of Train to Busan (who made another film afterward called "Peninsula" that was poorly received). This new film is screening as a Midnight Screening at Cannes. I think that even if it is very well received, it won't be nominated, as it has the combination of being a Korean film (aside from Parasite, no film has ever been nominated) and a Zombie film (which never manage to get nominations in this category).
  36. I Play Rocky: Amazon seems confident in the film given its release date, but for this category I think the makeup will be subtle.
  37. Send Help: Haven't seen the film, but I can tell from the trailer that there seems to be more pronounced makeup work toward the end, though it still looks fairly really light overall.
  38. De Gaulle: Tilting Iron (Film 1): There is like a 1% chance that France submits this film to the Oscars; if they do, the film could claim a spot in the conversation for this category and others (VFX, Costumes, Sound, Production Design). Daniel Parker (1 nomination) is working on it.
  39. Iron Lung: After what Markiplier's fans did to propel the film at the box office, you can expect anything from them 😂. I'm including it here just in case.
  40. Quasimodo: An ambitious French Netflix film, we can likely expect good makeup/hair work, but I'm not confident about the film itself and I think it won't appear in the conversation, aiming only at a French audience.
u/Electronic-Pea-8614 — 1 day ago
🔥 Hot ▲ 53 r/oscarrace

Very Early Cannes 2026 Winner Predictions Post!

I'm going to do a long rambling thought and predictions on who I think will be winning awards at Cannes! I love Cannes, I wish I could go. I've been spending time watching movies from the directors of the festival and here are my thoughts. I'll be going to TIFF this year on a big trip and then some local film fests to me in Baltimore (Philadelphia, Virginia, AFI Silver's stuff in DC, New Next and MdFF in Baltimore) so I like to keep an eye on Cannes for those.

I hope I articulated it all well...and it's not just a rambling incoherent mess...if you don't care here is a TL;DR table

Prize Winner
Palme d'Or Na Hong-jin's Hope
Grand Prix Andrey Zvyagintsev's Minotaur
Jury Prize Cristian Mungiu's Fjord
Best Director Pawel Pawlikowski's Fatherland
Best Screenplay Asghar Farhadi's Parallel Tales
Best Actress Lea Seydoux in Gentle Monster
Best Actor Swann Arlaud in Notre Salut

I'll upfront say that this is pretty speculative. I'm speculating the jury president has a lot of influence (and I say why below giving some examples with last year). I'm also speculating on who Park Chan-wook is and what he likes based on his public persona and filmography...but idk I could totally be wrong. Lastly, idk how good any of these movies are, some may suck. Like if Hope comes to the festival and is a steaming pile of garbage, then throw that out from the predictions. I'm trying to guess what is good based on rumors and which have distributors coming in mostly.

Who the hell is this Park guy anyways?

Jury presidents have huge pull. Think about last year with Juliette Binoche. It Was Just an Accident kind of lines up well with what she has done. She values international films (everything shut out was non-international). She favored more emotionally involved films, politically charged and about something. In the Criterion Closet she chose Bresson's Au hasard Balthazar, she chose Tarkovsky's Mirror. All emotional and humanist and contemplative. She chose Pasolini over Fellini when picking Italian directors...the political radical over the spectacle artist. She literally said the Panahi Palme was about "resistance, survival, which is absolutely necessary today." Her whole career is built on choosing auteur directors over Hollywood....Kiarostami, Kieslowski, Haneke, Claire Denis. The jury she led shut out every American film from the prizes. GRANTED maybe most of the American lineup wasn't the strongest to win, but I think her leading the jury defnitely pushed away from them.

Meanwhile...Park's favorite films are Bad Lieutenant, Vertigo, Point Blank, Vengeance is Mine, Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Garcia, Kiss Me Deadly. He notably said David Lynch's Lost Highway was pretentious. He put Full Metal Jacket at number one on his most overrated list. He called The Thin Red Line pedantic. He picked De Palma's Blow Out in the Criterion Closet, and notably Bergman's *The Magician...*not Wild Strawberries, not The Seventh Seal, the more craft-heavy and playful Bergman movie, the one about a traveling illusionist who might be a charlatan.

To me, what this says is he values craft and genre intelligence to work in the genre while being aware of it. He won't dismiss it for being a thriller or sci-fi, I think he could lean into it. But a more talky, more contemplative, humanist, emotional, purely political movie? Where the screenplay does a lot of the lifting? Not as much. He seems more in-tuned with the technicals and spectacle. Look at his filmography kind of says this too....No Other Choice this action packed film and take on work life balance and AI. It's not a bunch of talking and thinking, it's packed. He's known for the Oldboy scrolling fight scene that's referenced all over. He leans into a genre and shows more than tells, and his taste/picks I think lean into that.

What I'm Looking for Based on Park's public tastes

Look idk the dude....I'm shooting the shit and guessing as much as anyone with the info we have. But I think were looking for...

  • Non-pretentious
  • Visually and technically impressive
  • Genre Intelligence

My Predictions

PALME D'OR: Na Hong-jin's Hope

I think watching The Wailing, it's exactly up Park's alley. Paired with how hard Neon was said to be hunting for this movie since the fall on how good it is. The Wailing is a genre film (horror) leaning heavily into it, to do some serious theological and philosophical lifting. What's that sound like? Oldboy, a revenge thriller that uses the genre's own promise....justice and payback as the moral trap, the genre is the meaning. They share the same give you a genre film, and smuggle in the complexity to hit you with it. I think Hope sounds more the same, but the rumors seem to be that this is even more ambitious and larger budget with sci-fi instead.

Counter argument? Maybe Park picking a Korean film is too on the nose to avoid the optics? But I don't think overlooking loyalty like this is a concern.

GRAND PRIX: Andrey Zyvaginstev's Minotaur

First film in 9 years, exiled after fleeing Russia, almost died from COVID. I think Cannes can buy into a narrative like this, and not knowing too much on the films trying to cling on something. Mubi already pre-bought this well in advance too.

Zvyagintstev also is a real technical expert too...wide shots with composed frames like in Leviathan to deliver the meaning itself. Park grabbed the Red Desert in his Criterion picks, he lists Viscontis in the LaCinetek list...it just seems like a fit.

JURY PRIZE: Cristian Mungiu's Fjord

This I think is a pretty safe pick....like how Sentimental Value was last year. Same thing as Hope heavily rumored to be good and picked up by Neon well beforehand. I think it'll fall short and not the Palme for all the reasons I said. It's a emotional, humanist, long-takes, observational film...Park values the crafts and unhinged. This just doesn't sound like that? But look it sounds great so I think the jury can't ignore it.

BEST DIRECTOR: Pawel Pawlikowski's Fatherland

This is tough because I could see this taking Jury Prize or Grand Prix instead to be honest...but I'm gonna throw it here. Re-watching Cold War and Ida. Again just a technical guru, every frame...every cut. It's so purposeful and meaningful.

BEST SCREENPLAY: Asghar Farhadi's Parallel Tales

I think Farhadi's style is more functional rather than distinctive. His shots more serve the purpose of the screenplay rather than telling the story or having a style itself. I think that differs from Park and I think that could maybe push him out of the main prize contention...but still he is a strong writer, A Seperation ? Great. I think it fits in here. Honestly what pushed me over the edge was hearing how this is based on Dekalog IV. The plot of that sounds very similar least thematically to Decision to Leave

BEST ACTRESS: Lea Seydoux

Ok this might be a numbers chance thing...she's in two movies ;). Lets say she gets it for Gentle Monsters. I think Park does have a history of strong female leads who do quite a lot, The Handmaiden and Decision to Leave for instance.

BEST ACTOR: Swann Arlaud

I feel like it's a mistake to go big A-list for actor/actress on both accounts...or least have one that's less known in USA. If Lea Seydoux fits that bill, then maybe Swann Arlaud in Emmanuel Marre's Notre Salut is a good bet here? He was great in Anatomy of a Fall.

Who is on the outside looking in?

My guess? Definitely Ryusuke Hamaguchi's All of a Sudden. I kind of pushed him out over others purely because he's a past winner of the palme. I think maybe Cannes would rather spread the love more in a jury vs a past winner? Ostland tho kind of breaks that argument. But I think this could be contending for best screenplay. He is also very technical too....look at Evil Does Not Exist and how much the cinematography does there. Maybe I'll swap out one for this.

Another is Laszlo Nemes's Moulin. He kind of has that same technical style and characteristic of Park, looking at his past work with Son of Saul. He's just kind of hit or miss though it seems. Orphan as example.

Last shout-out...I think Arthur Harari's The Unknown could come in and snag the screeenplay award. Anatmy of a Fall won it few years ago, that he co-wrote. So maybe?

Here is everything I found when sluething for what Park likes....

reddit.com
u/k032 — 1 day ago

Do you think Narnia will submit as a Drama or a Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes?

I'm seeing a lot of speculation here on what type of movie Narnia will be (for example, some people are saying it will be just like the first 2 Harry Potter movies) and what that will mean for its awards contention, so let's get started with how it would fare at the Golden Globes.

And please don't just say "no way of knowing until we see it". I know we haven't seen it, but this is an awards speculation sub.

View Poll

reddit.com
u/enolobmob — 1 day ago

Mid April ATL predictions (+ Intl feature and Casting) because we have nothing to do till Cannes

Basically the title, unless Michael is the Lawrence of Arabia of biopics we have nothing to do till Cannes.

BEST PICTURE:

Cry To Heaven (TBD)
Digger (Warner Bros.)
Fatherland (Mubi)
Fjord (Neon)
Narnia (Netflix) (I'm a lil shaky on it, but there's usually a big showy Netflix movie that has a bunch of BTL noms and gets into picture. As much as I want Saturn Return to be that, it's probably Narnia)
The Odyssey (Universal) (Even though I do have it in, seeing people predicting any ATL wins is a lil silly)
Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM) (The yearly "released-early-but-heavily-acclaimed" spot)
Tony (A24) (Yes, this is hopedicting, but there's not really much else on A24's plate [I am not buying Jesse Eisenberg's movie])
The Unknown (Neon) (France's intl feature spot is between this and Parallel Tales, and I'd bet on this being better received. Also, yes, this is hopedicting too)
Wild Horse 9 (Searchlight) WINNER (You could argue his movies were at least Top 3 every year. It just feels like his time)

BEST DIRECTOR:

Tom Ford (Cry To Heaven)
Greta Gerwig (Narnia) (I didn't want to be the guy who took out the only woman in the running, so...)
Alejandro G. Iñarritu (Digger)
Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse 9) WINNER
Cristian Mungiu (Fjord) (Could swap him with the eventual Cannes winner)

BEST ACTRESS:

Cynthia Erivo (Prima Facie)
Sandra Huller (Fatherland) WINNER (I know, intl performance, won't be at SAG, yada yada yada. But the "mainstream" movies this year don't really have a woman as Lead [I'm not buying Eisenberg or Sorkin] and she's gonna have a great year)
Renate Reinsve (Fjord)
Ruth Madeley (Being Heumann)
Lea Seydoux (The Unknown) (I know, I know. Three intl performances. But let me hopedict, alright?!)

BEST ACTOR:

Tom Cruise (Digger) WINNER (Considered giving it to Malkovich but... it just makes sense, y'know?)
Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary) (The whole movie falls apart if Gosling isn't extremely charismatic)
Nicholas Hoult (Cry to Heaven) (Honestly, this is mostly a CTH placeholder because god knows what's happening there.)
John Malkovich (Wild Horse 9)
Sebastian Stan (Fjord)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Danielle Brooks (If I Go Will They Miss Me) (Okay, the movie may be small, but it was picked up by the studio who got The Apprentice, so...)
Mariana Di Girolamo (Wild Horse 9) WINNER
Emma Mackey (Narnia)
Thandiwe Newton (Cry To Heaven) (Rumors are she's playing Tonio's mother, and I'd guess that's a meatier role than Adele's)
Parker Posey (Wild Horse 9)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Antonio Banderas (Tony) (In the early script from the Blacklist his character chews up the scenery [Think Glenn Howerton in BlackBerry] so I can easily see him getting in)
Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse 9)
John Goodman (Digger) WINNER (Again... it just makes sense, y'know?)
Sam Rockwell (Wild Horse 9) (If this was played by ANYONE else, they'd be the frontrunner. But Sam Rockwell having two Oscars is a funny concept to most people, me included.)
Mark Ruffalo (Being Heumann) (Swapped Colman Domingo out with him. Michael just... doesn't look good...)

BEST OG SCREENPLAY

Coward (Ok, hear me out. Adapted Screenplay looks like a bloodbath this year, so maybe a Cannes movie can get the IWJAA package of Intl + Screenplay?)
Digger
Fjord
Saturn Return (Sing Sing and Train Dreams didn't miss Screenplay, even if they missed picture.)
Wild Horse 9 WINNER

BEST ADAPPTED SCREENPLAY

Cry to Heaven WINNER
Fatherland
Narnia
Tony
The Unknown

CASTING

Digger
Fatherland
Fjord
Narnia
Wild Horse 9 WINNER

INTL FEATURE

All of a Sudden (JAPAN)
Coward (BELGIUM)
Fatherland (GERMANY) WINNER
Minotaur (LATVIA)
The Unknown (FRANCE)

u/Top_Sand_3012 — 2 days ago

Way too early a prediction but I think the Odyssey is gonna blank at the ceremony but get nominations

I've been looking through the different categories, and I just don't think it's gonna be strong enough in any of them to win.

Picture obviously is dependent on other categories in the modern day. Director, I don't see happening because the academy doesn't seem to like Nolan that much, and he has no overdue narrative. Adapted screenplay feels unlikely to me because Nolan's screenplays usually suck, and almost every film that seems like it has a lot of potential (except Digger) is an adapted screenplay this year.

On acting, Damon might get nominated for Actor, but I feel like any claim he has to being overdue will get swept away by Cruise, who is both more overdue and, imo, a better actor. If Hathaway is going for Lead Actress, unless she's giving some like Anthony Hopkins level performance, she'll not even get nominated for having too little screentime. If she goes for supporting, she maybe has a chance (I'm not really up to date on who's gonna be in best supporting actress, but like Sandra Huller is having a good year). In supporting actor, I'm highly doubtful Tom Holland will even get nominated unless he's doing some insane top-level shit (which I have yet to see from him ever). Even then, he's going to probably lose to Jesse Plemons (with a sort of makeup nomination being imo certain). However, I admit if Pattison is getting a thank you for his work in indie cinema, it will probably be for this film, not Dune. Finally, while I think it will get an acting nomination (big cast, lots of talent), I feel that Digger is just gonna come in and take it.

With the technicals, I think if it's winning anything, it's gonna win either cinematography or editing, but even if the Dune 3 sweep doesn't happen (which I feel like there's a 30% chance of it happening), I feel it's got a better chance of getting both of these as makeup Oscars (also disclosure day has a good shot in cinematography cause spielberg is a god with a camera). Production, costume, and hair and makeup, I feel, once again are either going to Dune (especially with the late release creating immediate hype) or will be given to Narnia as the sort of fantasy pick over the Odyssey. While I'm sure the Odyssey will have a great usage of VFX, this is very definitely Dune's one to lose (both of the last films won this category for a reason).

That leaves just original score and song. Now I have no clue if this film is gonna have an original song by like Travis Scott in it (if it does, ignore everything I've said and bet the house on him or whatever song Charlie xcx inevitably writes for a film), but in the case that that doesn't happen, it probably won't have a song to put up. With score as well, I just don't see Goranson going back-to-back (I could be wrong), and I feel like Hans Zimmer or John Williams is gonna take the win.

So yeah, not saying I'm right (it's way too early to tell anything tbh) but this is sort of my no guts no glory play. It's gonna get like 11 nominations but lose every last one.

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u/Humble-Math6565 — 2 days ago