Basically the title, unless Michael is the Lawrence of Arabia of biopics we have nothing to do till Cannes.

BEST PICTURE:

Cry To Heaven (TBD)
Digger (Warner Bros.)
Fatherland (Mubi)
Fjord (Neon)
Narnia (Netflix) (I'm a lil shaky on it, but there's usually a big showy Netflix movie that has a bunch of BTL noms and gets into picture. As much as I want Saturn Return to be that, it's probably Narnia)
The Odyssey (Universal) (Even though I do have it in, seeing people predicting any ATL wins is a lil silly)
Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM) (The yearly "released-early-but-heavily-acclaimed" spot)
Tony (A24) (Yes, this is hopedicting, but there's not really much else on A24's plate [I am not buying Jesse Eisenberg's movie])
The Unknown (Neon) (France's intl feature spot is between this and Parallel Tales, and I'd bet on this being better received. Also, yes, this is hopedicting too)
Wild Horse 9 (Searchlight) WINNER (You could argue his movies were at least Top 3 every year. It just feels like his time)

BEST DIRECTOR:

Tom Ford (Cry To Heaven)
Greta Gerwig (Narnia) (I didn't want to be the guy who took out the only woman in the running, so...)
Alejandro G. Iñarritu (Digger)
Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse 9) WINNER
Cristian Mungiu (Fjord) (Could swap him with the eventual Cannes winner)

BEST ACTRESS:

Cynthia Erivo (Prima Facie)
Sandra Huller (Fatherland) WINNER (I know, intl performance, won't be at SAG, yada yada yada. But the "mainstream" movies this year don't really have a woman as Lead [I'm not buying Eisenberg or Sorkin] and she's gonna have a great year)
Renate Reinsve (Fjord)
Ruth Madeley (Being Heumann)
Lea Seydoux (The Unknown) (I know, I know. Three intl performances. But let me hopedict, alright?!)

BEST ACTOR:

Tom Cruise (Digger) WINNER (Considered giving it to Malkovich but... it just makes sense, y'know?)
Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary) (The whole movie falls apart if Gosling isn't extremely charismatic)
Nicholas Hoult (Cry to Heaven) (Honestly, this is mostly a CTH placeholder because god knows what's happening there.)
John Malkovich (Wild Horse 9)
Sebastian Stan (Fjord)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Danielle Brooks (If I Go Will They Miss Me) (Okay, the movie may be small, but it was picked up by the studio who got The Apprentice, so...)
Mariana Di Girolamo (Wild Horse 9) WINNER
Emma Mackey (Narnia)
Thandiwe Newton (Cry To Heaven) (Rumors are she's playing Tonio's mother, and I'd guess that's a meatier role than Adele's)
Parker Posey (Wild Horse 9)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Antonio Banderas (Tony) (In the early script from the Blacklist his character chews up the scenery [Think Glenn Howerton in BlackBerry] so I can easily see him getting in)
Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse 9)
John Goodman (Digger) WINNER (Again... it just makes sense, y'know?)
Sam Rockwell (Wild Horse 9) (If this was played by ANYONE else, they'd be the frontrunner. But Sam Rockwell having two Oscars is a funny concept to most people, me included.)
Mark Ruffalo (Being Heumann) (Swapped Colman Domingo out with him. Michael just... doesn't look good...)

BEST OG SCREENPLAY

Coward (Ok, hear me out. Adapted Screenplay looks like a bloodbath this year, so maybe a Cannes movie can get the IWJAA package of Intl + Screenplay?)
Digger
Fjord
Saturn Return (Sing Sing and Train Dreams didn't miss Screenplay, even if they missed picture.)
Wild Horse 9 WINNER

BEST ADAPPTED SCREENPLAY

Cry to Heaven WINNER
Fatherland
Narnia
Tony
The Unknown

CASTING

Digger
Fatherland
Fjord
Narnia
Wild Horse 9 WINNER

INTL FEATURE

All of a Sudden (JAPAN)
Coward (BELGIUM)
Fatherland (GERMANY) WINNER
Minotaur (LATVIA)
The Unknown (FRANCE)