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Very Early Cannes 2026 Winner Predictions Post!

I'm going to do a long rambling thought and predictions on who I think will be winning awards at Cannes! I love Cannes, I wish I could go. I've been spending time watching movies from the directors of the festival and here are my thoughts. I'll be going to TIFF this year on a big trip and then some local film fests to me in Baltimore (Philadelphia, Virginia, AFI Silver's stuff in DC, New Next and MdFF in Baltimore) so I like to keep an eye on Cannes for those.

I hope I articulated it all well...and it's not just a rambling incoherent mess...if you don't care here is a TL;DR table

Prize Winner
Palme d'Or Na Hong-jin's Hope
Grand Prix Andrey Zvyagintsev's Minotaur
Jury Prize Cristian Mungiu's Fjord
Best Director Pawel Pawlikowski's Fatherland
Best Screenplay Asghar Farhadi's Parallel Tales
Best Actress Lea Seydoux in Gentle Monster
Best Actor Swann Arlaud in Notre Salut

I'll upfront say that this is pretty speculative. I'm speculating the jury president has a lot of influence (and I say why below giving some examples with last year). I'm also speculating on who Park Chan-wook is and what he likes based on his public persona and filmography...but idk I could totally be wrong. Lastly, idk how good any of these movies are, some may suck. Like if Hope comes to the festival and is a steaming pile of garbage, then throw that out from the predictions. I'm trying to guess what is good based on rumors and which have distributors coming in mostly.

Who the hell is this Park guy anyways?

Jury presidents have huge pull. Think about last year with Juliette Binoche. It Was Just an Accident kind of lines up well with what she has done. She values international films (everything shut out was non-international). She favored more emotionally involved films, politically charged and about something. In the Criterion Closet she chose Bresson's Au hasard Balthazar, she chose Tarkovsky's Mirror. All emotional and humanist and contemplative. She chose Pasolini over Fellini when picking Italian directors...the political radical over the spectacle artist. She literally said the Panahi Palme was about "resistance, survival, which is absolutely necessary today." Her whole career is built on choosing auteur directors over Hollywood....Kiarostami, Kieslowski, Haneke, Claire Denis. The jury she led shut out every American film from the prizes. GRANTED maybe most of the American lineup wasn't the strongest to win, but I think her leading the jury defnitely pushed away from them.

Meanwhile...Park's favorite films are Bad Lieutenant, Vertigo, Point Blank, Vengeance is Mine, Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Garcia, Kiss Me Deadly. He notably said David Lynch's Lost Highway was pretentious. He put Full Metal Jacket at number one on his most overrated list. He called The Thin Red Line pedantic. He picked De Palma's Blow Out in the Criterion Closet, and notably Bergman's *The Magician...*not Wild Strawberries, not The Seventh Seal, the more craft-heavy and playful Bergman movie, the one about a traveling illusionist who might be a charlatan.

To me, what this says is he values craft and genre intelligence to work in the genre while being aware of it. He won't dismiss it for being a thriller or sci-fi, I think he could lean into it. But a more talky, more contemplative, humanist, emotional, purely political movie? Where the screenplay does a lot of the lifting? Not as much. He seems more in-tuned with the technicals and spectacle. Look at his filmography kind of says this too....No Other Choice this action packed film and take on work life balance and AI. It's not a bunch of talking and thinking, it's packed. He's known for the Oldboy scrolling fight scene that's referenced all over. He leans into a genre and shows more than tells, and his taste/picks I think lean into that.

What I'm Looking for Based on Park's public tastes

Look idk the dude....I'm shooting the shit and guessing as much as anyone with the info we have. But I think were looking for...

  • Non-pretentious
  • Visually and technically impressive
  • Genre Intelligence

My Predictions

PALME D'OR: Na Hong-jin's Hope

I think watching The Wailing, it's exactly up Park's alley. Paired with how hard Neon was said to be hunting for this movie since the fall on how good it is. The Wailing is a genre film (horror) leaning heavily into it, to do some serious theological and philosophical lifting. What's that sound like? Oldboy, a revenge thriller that uses the genre's own promise....justice and payback as the moral trap, the genre is the meaning. They share the same give you a genre film, and smuggle in the complexity to hit you with it. I think Hope sounds more the same, but the rumors seem to be that this is even more ambitious and larger budget with sci-fi instead.

Counter argument? Maybe Park picking a Korean film is too on the nose to avoid the optics? But I don't think overlooking loyalty like this is a concern.

GRAND PRIX: Andrey Zyvaginstev's Minotaur

First film in 9 years, exiled after fleeing Russia, almost died from COVID. I think Cannes can buy into a narrative like this, and not knowing too much on the films trying to cling on something. Mubi already pre-bought this well in advance too.

Zvyagintstev also is a real technical expert too...wide shots with composed frames like in Leviathan to deliver the meaning itself. Park grabbed the Red Desert in his Criterion picks, he lists Viscontis in the LaCinetek list...it just seems like a fit.

JURY PRIZE: Cristian Mungiu's Fjord

This I think is a pretty safe pick....like how Sentimental Value was last year. Same thing as Hope heavily rumored to be good and picked up by Neon well beforehand. I think it'll fall short and not the Palme for all the reasons I said. It's a emotional, humanist, long-takes, observational film...Park values the crafts and unhinged. This just doesn't sound like that? But look it sounds great so I think the jury can't ignore it.

BEST DIRECTOR: Pawel Pawlikowski's Fatherland

This is tough because I could see this taking Jury Prize or Grand Prix instead to be honest...but I'm gonna throw it here. Re-watching Cold War and Ida. Again just a technical guru, every frame...every cut. It's so purposeful and meaningful.

BEST SCREENPLAY: Asghar Farhadi's Parallel Tales

I think Farhadi's style is more functional rather than distinctive. His shots more serve the purpose of the screenplay rather than telling the story or having a style itself. I think that differs from Park and I think that could maybe push him out of the main prize contention...but still he is a strong writer, A Seperation ? Great. I think it fits in here. Honestly what pushed me over the edge was hearing how this is based on Dekalog IV. The plot of that sounds very similar least thematically to Decision to Leave

BEST ACTRESS: Lea Seydoux

Ok this might be a numbers chance thing...she's in two movies ;). Lets say she gets it for Gentle Monsters. I think Park does have a history of strong female leads who do quite a lot, The Handmaiden and Decision to Leave for instance.

BEST ACTOR: Swann Arlaud

I feel like it's a mistake to go big A-list for actor/actress on both accounts...or least have one that's less known in USA. If Lea Seydoux fits that bill, then maybe Swann Arlaud in Emmanuel Marre's Notre Salut is a good bet here? He was great in Anatomy of a Fall.

Who is on the outside looking in?

My guess? Definitely Ryusuke Hamaguchi's All of a Sudden. I kind of pushed him out over others purely because he's a past winner of the palme. I think maybe Cannes would rather spread the love more in a jury vs a past winner? Ostland tho kind of breaks that argument. But I think this could be contending for best screenplay. He is also very technical too....look at Evil Does Not Exist and how much the cinematography does there. Maybe I'll swap out one for this.

Another is Laszlo Nemes's Moulin. He kind of has that same technical style and characteristic of Park, looking at his past work with Son of Saul. He's just kind of hit or miss though it seems. Orphan as example.

Last shout-out...I think Arthur Harari's The Unknown could come in and snag the screeenplay award. Anatmy of a Fall won it few years ago, that he co-wrote. So maybe?

Here is everything I found when sluething for what Park likes....

reddit.com
u/k032 — 1 day ago