r/geopolitics

The United States may have struck a fragile ceasefire deal with Iran, but the war has inflicted damage on U.S. relationships in Asia that were already strained after more than a year of President Donald Trump’s unpredictable approach to foreign policy. A new poll of leaders in Southeast Asian countries highlights the weakness of U.S. influence in the region, even among allies and partners.

The 2026 report released this week showed that China was the preferred partner once again. Most respondents also perceive China as the most influential economic power in Southeast Asia (which is surely true); about fifteen percent say the United States is the most influential economic power.

In a new development not shown in prior ISEAS reports, more than half of respondents now said that U.S. global leadership had become their biggest geopolitical concern. This displaced China’s “aggressive behavior in the South China Sea,” which had been the region’s top concern in 2025. (“New U.S. leadership” was the third-highest concern among respondents last year.)

“This perception demonstrates regional anxiety about inconsistencies in policy and the credibility of long-term commitments under Trump’s leadership,” the poll reported. Even in Singapore, a longtime U.S. partner, this fear was so pronounced that more than three-quarters of Singaporean respondents listed concern about U.S. leadership as their biggest worry. Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand—a country with close trading ties, a U.S. partner, and a treaty ally, respectively—now also have massive concerns about U.S. economic influence in the region.