r/fivethirtyeight

Creeps together stronk lol .

Obviously turnout in primaries is inherently different from a general election. But this level of difference between Shapiro and Garrity in a nearly evenly divided purple state should absolutely be considered an important omen, as both candidates were unopposed.

Shapiro is heavily favored to win in the fall. However, the point is that there's 3-4 highly competitive House seats in PA now held by the GOP; if the top of the ticket can't draw voters for a party, that's going to have a lot of downballot consequences.

Just another midterm indicator that shouldn't be ignored.

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https://open.substack.com/pub/tpsiofficial/p/new-wisconsin-poll-shows-political?r=3rsmj7&utm\_medium=ios

Source (Alameda Post): "Obama offered no alternative to the two known candidates for mayor."

Source (San Francisco Chronicle): "Barack Obama — not that one — is on the ballot [...] Modest barriers to entry on the ballot, such as a roughly $5,000 fee or 6,000 signatures, paved the way for a cast of characters with satirical-sounding names like Barack Obama, Thunder Parley and Livingforgod Andcountry Demott. [...] Obama, with his fewer than 350 Instagram followers, minimal donor support and a thin campaign platform, sits atop some of California’s roughly 23 million mail-in ballots."

Republicans clearly started the redistricting war, being the first states to VOLUNTARILY perform mid-decade gerrymandering.

Source included on chart.