How long are Australia and New Zealand able to maintain apartheid? Can they maintain it until the 1990s, as South Africa did, or do their systems collapse sooner? Indigenous populations in Australia and New Zealand make up a much smaller share of their populations than the indigenous populations of South Africa, which could potentially extend apartheid rule in Australia and New Zealand. Armed resistances would be smaller, and would be demographically overwhelmed by White-populated armies and militias. On the flip side, Australia and New Zealand have stronger institutional traditions of plural liberal democracy, which could end apartheid rule much sooner.
Assuming that Australia and New Zealand did implement apartheid late into the 20th century, how do they look by 2026? What are their international status and alignment during and after apartheid?
How long are Australia and New Zealand able to maintain apartheid? Can they maintain it until the 1990s, as South Africa did, or do their systems collapse sooner? Indigenous populations in Australia and New Zealand make up a much smaller share of their populations than the indigenous populations of South Africa, which could potentially extend apartheid rule in Australia and New Zealand. Armed resistances would be smaller, and would be demographically overwhelmed by White-populated armies and militias. On the flip side, Australia and New Zealand have stronger institutional traditions of plural liberal democracy, which could end apartheid rule much sooner.
Assuming that Australia and New Zealand did implement apartheid late into the 20th century, how do they look by 2026? What are their international status and alignment during and after apartheid?
In a huge win for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and for human rights activists worldwide, the Israeli government of 1994, led by Labor leader and Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, votes to grant full civic and humanitarian rights and equality to all Palestinians, as promised by the recently-signed Oslo Accords. Shockwaves ripple through Israeli society, and rightwing politicians (such as Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud) are infuriated, but the move is warmly-welcomed by international observers, and of course, by the Arab community in Israel. Note that, in real life, Labor PM Rabin was assassinated in 1995, as retaliation by the far-right for signing the Oslo Accords.
Unfortunately, hopes for world peace and equality are short-lived, as a few days after the Israeli vote, the White-led apartheid government in South Africa announces that negotiations with Nelson Mandela's party, the African National Congress, have abruptly and catastrophically collapsed. There will be no transition to democracy. A few weeks after this announcement, another horrifying bombshell drops—Nelson Mandela is to be re-arrested, the African National Congress is to be outlawed as a terrorist organization, and counter-insurgency operations against it are to begin immediately. Enormous riots break out across the country. Within weeks, the ruling pro-apartheid National Party declares a state of emergency, and proclaims total war against the African National Congress, and all of Nelson Mandela's movement.
What happens to these two countries next? What do they look like by 2026? How does The Great Apartheid Swap affect Middle Eastern and African geopolitics more broadly?
What happens next? How does the ensuing civil war differ from the American Civil War? Which side wins (I'm assuming that the anti-slavery/pro-republican coalition has a strong advantage here, as they did in the US)? How is Brazil transformed as a country and society by 2026?
What happens next? How does the ensuing civil war differ from the American Civil War? Which side wins (I'm assuming that the anti-slavery/pro-republican coalition has a strong advantage here, as they did in the US)? How is Brazil transformed as a country and society by 2026?
On April 19, 1945, a radicalized WWI veteran named Timothy McVeigh detonates a massive makeshift bomb in the center of downtown Oklahoma City, during the middle of the workday. Dozens of people, including children (as the real-life OKC bomb was detonated outside a daycare center), are killed in the brazen attack.
Within 90 minutes of the bombing, and as in real life, Timothy McVeigh is arrested outside Oklahoma City following a freak traffic stop. Inside his car, investigators find traces of the bomb materials, including an ammonium nitrate fertilizer/diesel fuel mixture. On this evidence, McVeigh is immediately charged with the attack.
In their search for a motive, investigators unravel McVeigh's radicalization following his time in the US Army—not a native of Oklahoma, but instead New York (as in real life), McVeigh traveled to Oklahoma specifically to massacre the state's White-colonist population. Oklahoma was a semi-autonomous Indian Territory until the early 20th century, when it was fully absorbed into the Union; this completed annexation led to droves of White-colonist settlers flooding the state, and irreversibly changing its demographics and culture. Investigators formally conclude that McVeigh bombed Oklahoma City as a symbolic attack on this invasion of Indian Territory. Here, the ATL diverges from real life a bit more severely.
What happens next? How do Oklahoma City authorities, Oklahoma state authorities, and the federal government respond? How is the cultural and domestic-security impact of this altered OKC bombing different from what transpired in real life?
In the late 1960s, the British government comes to the conclusion that the colonial/sectarian conflict in Northern Ireland is too destructive for the British state and military to handle, and transfers control of Northern Ireland to the government in Dublin. The British offer a generous refugee deal to English Protestants in Belfast, in the hopes of minimizing future conflict in the city.
In a complete inversion of the British government’s approach to decolonization, the French dig in deeper in occupied Algeria, and prepare to hold onto their last major colony for decades. Troop levels in the 1960s surge, and restrictions on the military’s anti-insurgent operations are lifted. The death toll on both sides skyrocket as a result, but Charles de Gaulle and allies are undeterred, even in the face of growing international pressure to withdraw. His administration maintains that a French Algeria is core to the country’s identity and future.
What happens next?
In a huge win for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and for human rights activists worldwide, the Israeli government of 1994, led by Labor leader and Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, votes to grant full civic and humanitarian rights and equality to all Palestinians, as promised by the recently-signed Oslo Accords. Shockwaves ripple through Israeli society, and rightwing politicians (such as Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud) are infuriated, but the move is warmly-welcomed by international observers, and of course, by the Arab community in Israel. Note that, in real life, Labor PM Rabin was assassinated in 1995, as retaliation by the far-right for signing the Oslo Accords.
Unfortunately, hopes for world peace and equality are short-lived, as a few days after the Israeli vote, the White-led apartheid government in South Africa announces that negotiations with Nelson Mandela's party, the African National Congress, have abruptly and catastrophically collapsed. There will be no transition to democracy. A few weeks after this announcement, another horrifying bombshell drops—Nelson Mandela is to be re-arrested, the African National Congress is to be outlawed as a terrorist organization, and counter-insurgency operations against it are to begin immediately. Enormous riots break out across the country. Within weeks, the ruling pro-apartheid National Party declares a state of emergency, and proclaims total war against the African National Congress, and all of Nelson Mandela's movement.
What happens to these two countries next? What do they look like by 2026? How does this Great Apartheid Switcheroo affect Middle Eastern and African geopolitics more broadly?
In a huge win for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and for human rights activists worldwide, the Israeli government of 1994, led by Labor leader and Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, votes to grant full civic and humanitarian rights and equality to all Palestinians, as promised by the recently-signed Oslo Accords. Shockwaves ripple through Israeli society, and rightwing politicians (such as Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud) are infuriated, but the move is warmly-welcomed by international observers, and of course, by the Arab community in Israel. Note that, in real life, Labor PM Rabin was assassinated in 1995, as retaliation by the far-right for signing the Oslo Accords.
Unfortunately, hopes for world peace and equality are short-lived, as a few days after the Israeli vote, the White-led apartheid government in South Africa announces that negotiations with Nelson Mandela's party, the African National Congress, have abruptly and catastrophically collapsed. There will be no transition to democracy. A few weeks after this announcement, another horrifying bombshell drops—Nelson Mandela is to be re-arrested, the African National Congress is to be outlawed as a terrorist organization, and counter-insurgency operations against it are to begin immediately. Enormous riots break out across the country. Within weeks, the ruling pro-apartheid National Party declares a state of emergency, and proclaims total war against the African National Congress, and all of Nelson Mandela's movement.
What happens to these two countries next? What do they look like by 2026? How does this Great Apartheid Switcheroo affect Middle Eastern and African geopolitics more broadly?
In a huge win for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and for human rights activists worldwide, the Israeli government of 1994, led by Labor leader and Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, votes to grant full civic and humanitarian rights and equality to all Palestinians, as promised by the recently-signed Oslo Accords. Shockwaves ripple through Israeli society, and rightwing politicians (such as Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud) are infuriated, but the move is warmly-welcomed by international observers, and of course, by the Arab community in Israel. Note that, in real life, Labor PM Rabin was assassinated in 1995, as retaliation by the far-right for signing the Oslo Accords.
Unfortunately, hopes for world peace and equality are short-lived, as a few days after the Israeli vote, the White-led apartheid government in South Africa announces that negotiations with Nelson Mandela's party, the African National Congress, have abruptly and catastrophically collapsed. There will be no transition to democracy. A few weeks after this announcement, another horrifying bombshell drops—Nelson Mandela is to be re-arrested, the African National Congress is to be outlawed as a terrorist organization, and counter-insurgency operations against it are to begin immediately. Enormous riots break out across the country. Within weeks, the ruling pro-apartheid National Party declares a state of emergency, and proclaims total war against the African National Congress, and all of Nelson Mandela's movement.
What happens to these two countries next? What do they look like by 2026? How does this Great Apartheid Switcheroo affect Middle Eastern and African geopolitics more broadly?
In the late 1960s, the British government comes to the conclusion that the colonial/sectarian conflict in Northern Ireland is too destructive for the British state and military to handle, and transfers control of Northern Ireland to the government in Dublin. The British offer a generous refugee deal to English Protestants in Belfast, in the hopes of minimizing future conflict in the city.
In a complete inversion of the British government’s approach to decolonization, the French dig in deeper in occupied Algeria, and prepare to hold onto their last major colony for decades. Troop levels in the 1960s surge, and restrictions on the military’s anti-insurgent operations are lifted. The death toll on both sides skyrocket as a result, but Charles de Gaulle and allies are undeterred, even in the face of growing international pressure to withdraw. His administration maintains that a French Algeria is core to the country’s identity and future.
What happens next?
In the late 1960s, the British government comes to the conclusion that the colonial/sectarian conflict in Northern Ireland is too destructive for the British state and military to handle, and transfers control of Northern Ireland to the government in Dublin. The British offer a generous refugee deal to English Protestants in Belfast, in the hopes of minimizing future conflict in the city.
In a complete inversion of the British government’s approach to decolonization, the French dig in deeper in occupied Algeria, and prepare to hold onto their last major colony for decades. Troop levels in the 1960s surge, and restrictions on the military’s anti-insurgent operations are lifted. The death toll on both sides skyrocket as a result, but Charles de Gaulle and allies are undeterred, even in the face of growing international pressure to withdraw. His administration maintains that a French Algeria is core to the country’s identity and future.
What happens next?
On April 19, 1945, a radicalized WWI veteran named Timothy McVeigh detonates a massive makeshift bomb in the center of downtown Oklahoma City, during the middle of the workday. Dozens of people, including children (as the real-life OKC bomb was detonated outside a daycare center), are killed in the brazen attack.
Within 90 minutes of the bombing, and as in real life, Timothy McVeigh is arrested outside Oklahoma City following a freak traffic stop. Inside his car, investigators find traces of the bomb materials, including an ammonium nitrate fertilizer/diesel fuel mixture. On this evidence, McVeigh is immediately charged with the attack.
In their search for a motive, investigators unravel McVeigh's radicalization following his time in the US Army—not a native of Oklahoma, but instead New York (as in real life), McVeigh traveled to Oklahoma specifically to massacre the state's White-colonist population. Oklahoma was a semi-autonomous Indian Territory until the early 20th century, when it was fully absorbed into the Union; this completed annexation led to droves of White-colonist settlers flooding the state, and irreversibly changing its demographics and culture. Investigators formally conclude that McVeigh bombed Oklahoma City as a symbolic attack on this invasion of Indian Territory. Here, the ATL diverges from real life a bit more severely.
What happens next? How do Oklahoma City authorities, Oklahoma state authorities, and the federal government respond? How is the cultural and domestic-security impact of this altered OKC bombing different from what transpired in real life?
On April 19, 1945, a radicalized WWI veteran named Timothy McVeigh detonates a massive makeshift bomb in the center of downtown Oklahoma City, during the middle of the workday. Dozens of people, including children (as the real-life OKC bomb was detonated outside a daycare center), are killed in the brazen attack.
Within 90 minutes of the bombing, and as in real life, Timothy McVeigh is arrested outside Oklahoma City following a freak traffic stop. Inside his car, investigators find traces of the bomb materials, including an ammonium nitrate fertilizer/diesel fuel mixture. On this evidence, McVeigh is immediately charged with the attack.
In their search for a motive, investigators unravel McVeigh's radicalization following his time in the US Army—not a native of Oklahoma, but instead New York (as in real life), McVeigh traveled to Oklahoma specifically to massacre the state's White-colonist population. Oklahoma was a semi-autonomous Indian Territory until the early 20th century, when it was fully absorbed into the Union; this completed annexation led to droves of White-colonist settlers flooding the state, and irreversibly changing its demographics and culture. Investigators formally conclude that McVeigh bombed Oklahoma City as a symbolic attack on this invasion of Indian Territory. Here, the ATL diverges from real life a bit more severely.
What happens next? How do Oklahoma City authorities, Oklahoma state authorities, and the federal government respond? How is the cultural and domestic-security impact of this altered OKC bombing different from what transpired in real life?
