u/Salt_Abrocoma_4688

Pennsylvania Governor Primary Results (current Dem turnout exceeds GOP by 440K)

Pennsylvania Governor Primary Results (current Dem turnout exceeds GOP by 440K)

Obviously turnout in primaries is inherently different from a general election. But this level of difference between Shapiro and Garrity in a nearly evenly divided purple state should absolutely be considered an important omen, as both candidates were unopposed.

Shapiro is heavily favored to win in the fall. However, the point is that there's 3-4 highly competitive House seats in PA now held by the GOP; if the top of the ticket can't draw voters for a party, that's going to have a lot of downballot consequences.

Just another midterm indicator that shouldn't be ignored.

u/Salt_Abrocoma_4688 — 8 hours ago

NYTimes Average Approval Tracker at New Record Low (-22) with CBS/YouGov poll (-26)

Once again, we're continuing to see new polling lows, which seems to have really ramped up over the past month with sentiment over the Iran War.

The question is right now: how much of the decline is a real lasting damage to GOP identity/alignment versus some portion of a disaffected base that can bounce back?

u/Salt_Abrocoma_4688 — 3 days ago