I did my master’s in data science thesis on machine learning modeling for fantasy football - here’s what the data says about Oronde Gadsden's 2026 outlook and beyond, given his year 2 statistical comps:

14/20 hit 1+ Top 12 FPPG finish (70%)

8/20 hit 1+ Top 5 FPPG finish (40%)

5/20 hit 1+ Top 3 FPPG finish (25%)

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Year 2 FPPG distribution specifically (PPR):

Floor → 1.44

Q1 (25th % outcome) → 5.52

Median → 9.26

Q3 (75th % outcome)→ 11.68

Ceiling → 16.04

Don't let Gadsden's slow finish to the season fool you - he still had an absolutely awesome rookie season when looking at the numbers. The 2025 tight end class is shaping up to be truly game-changing for the future of fantasy football.

What do you guys think about Gadsden? Make sure to check out the video for all my thoughts along with the full list of comps, and check out the full Year 2 comps series on my channel for all the guys I’ve covered!🤙

With all of this talk about AJ Brown likely getting traded on or after Draft Day, it seems like Devonta Smith’s price may sky rocket in the coming weeks. The issue is, he’s 27 and the Eagles could always try to get someone through the draft, free agency, or trade.

What do you guys think about him going forward?

I'm building RotoRecon, an app that ingests audio from major NFL DFS podcasts, analyzes them through a custom-trained AI model, and lets you query everything through a chat interface. Ask "who are the top value plays at RB this week?" and you get a synthesized answer drawn from what the different experts actually said, with source attribution so you can verify and dig deeper.

I'm targeting a beta launch in June/July ahead of the season. Full disclosure, this will be a paid product, but beta testers get discounted access in exchange for feedback.

I have some early screenshots if anyone wants to see where it's at. Drop a comment or DM me if you're interested in being a beta tester.

Maybe not the most fantasy relevant news but still a big trade

The Dolphins have publicly and adamantly ruled out trading De'Von Achane, with General Manager Jon-Eric Sullivan labeling him a foundational pillar of the team's ongoing roster rebuild (7 sources from Dynasty Pulse).

I'm trying to wrap my head around it.

Reasons why they would trade Achane:

• Team likely won't be competitive while he is there given the full rebuild
• Rebuilding around a RB is generally a poor idea
• They would likely get a good return for him
• Don't have to extend him

Reasons why they would not trade Achane:

• They think they can be competitive in the next few years
• They want to sell tickets next season?

Only other thing I could come up with is that the GM is trying to drive the price up by saying how sure they are they want to keep him. Essentially saying they need to receive an offer they can't say no to. But that doesn't feel like what's happening here.

Which brings me back to the post title, if you were the GM of the Dolphins, would you extend Achane or trade him?

I did my master’s in data science thesis on machine learning modeling for fantasy football - here’s what the data says about Harold Fannin's 2026 outlook and beyond, given his year 2 statistical comps:

16/20 hit 1+ Top 12 FPPG finish (80%)

10/20 hit 1+ Top 5 FPPG finish (50%)

6/20 hit 1+ Top 3 FPPG finish (30%)

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Year 2 FPPG distribution specifically (PPR):

Floor → 1.44

Q1 (25th % outcome) → 8.28

Median → 10.96

Q3 (75th % outcome)→ 12.1

Ceiling → 16.04

However high you are on Harold Fannin, I truly don't think it's high enough. This guy has earned the right to be in the conversation for TE3 in dynasty in my opinion.

Absolutely bonkers production profile coming out of Bowling Green, and he just kept doing more of the same shit in the NFL. To have this good of statistical comps going into year 2 after being drafted 67 overall is NOT a common occurrence, especially at the TE position. Truly a special, special talent and quite possibly my next favorite player in the league!!

He's absolutely going to be one of my favorite targets in both dynasty and redraft this offseason. Don't overthink it.

What do you guys think about Fannin? Make sure to check out the video for all my thoughts along with the full list of comps, and check out the full Year 2 comps series on my channel for all the guys I’ve covered!🤙

SPS All-Time Database - Now With DE

The “Does It Matter?” Series is back! In the last article we looked at Tight End Breakout Ages for part 100 to find whether that affects performance. For the 101st part of “Does It Matter?” we looked at our Defensive End Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. In this article, we found an optimal range you should look for in athletes, and walk you through exactly where and how this is applicable in scouting prospects for your IDP drafts.

Currently, 46 Pro Bowl appearances, 6 DPOYs, 12 First Team All-Pros, 800+ career sacks, and at least 1 future first ballot Hall-of-Famer reside in the top 10 all-time DE SPS grades.

As mentioned in the article, some of the most recent “call your shot” moments for the SPS have Aidan Hutchinson at 90.6 SPS and Travon Walker at 81.4. Aidan has an SPS grade in the top 10 all-time DE SPS grades. Going back to the 2018 NFL Draft specifically, the top 3 DE SPS grades were in order of: Nick Bosa, Maxx Crosby, Brian Burns. As far as the 2018 DE class draft order, Bosa was taken 1st, followed by Brian Burns 3rd, then Crosby taken as the 10th DE. Their SPS grades show their underrated value – especially Crosby being taken as the 10th DE but being the 3rd overall DE SPS in that class.

It’s those deep contrasts from the overall consensus and those big contrasts between players that the SPS has been great at “planting its flag” with. Just like any other analytical model or method, there will always be misses, but the true test is the test against draft capital. This is why the whole SPS database includes draft capital to compare against and all of our research compares the SPS grades against draft capital positionally. Which brings me to another point: we are not the type to think or assume film does not matter. When a highly accurate film analyst is shouting from the rooftop about a player, we still stop and listen (although Steve Smith still owes me a 2.02 for the Matthew Golden advice). By no means are we saying the SPS is a bible, but as always, film and analytics should be used alongside each other to gauge the full picture on prospects. Film 🤝 Analytics.

For those curious about the Pearson value of draft capital and the SPS, we tested both draft capital and the SPS comparing each against career fantasy points scored within the first 4 rounds (which is where the DE SPS specializes in):

• Draft Capital to career fantasy points for all 1st through 4th round DE’s since 2003: -0.325
• Star-Predictor Score (SPS) to career fantasy points for all 1st through 4th round DE’s since 2003: 0.448

After the 4th round, the SPS’s predictiveness over draft capital slopes down to being only marginal. Therefore, DE’s after round 4 won’t be seen in the SPS database.

You can find the all-time SPS, which has QB’s, RB’s, WR’s, TE’s, and now DE’s here.

Sneak peek: We are also currently developing our own fantasy football platform with a unique and extremely fun twist on how fantasy football is played. Along with that, we are soon announcing our official fantasy football mock draft simulator (free to use) once all feedback comes in, but while we are here we thought we’d include it in this post for everyone to check out in the meanwhile (feedback appreciated).

So my partners family starts a fantasy league every year. I know nothing about football or even know what to expect any tips?

Stumbled upon a few 49ers podcasts today (“49ers Cutback” and “49ers Talk”) that brought up how the coaching staff intends to reduce CMC’s snap count and overall usage in 2026 to keep him fresher for the postseason.

Was skeptical because we’ve all heard that story before, but it sent me down a rabbit hole.

A few things stood out:

(1) Coach Speak Index grades Kyle Shanahan as one of the most trustworthy coaches when it comes to usage/workload. Don’t know how accurate this site is, but interesting.

(2) CMC had 413 touches this past regular season. CMC has only had 400+ touches one other time in his regular-season career (403 touches in 2019). The following year, he only played 3 games.

He also had 400+ in 2023 when including postseason touches. The following year, he played 4 games.

(3) Another recent Sports Illustrated article explains how Shanahan and CMC both acknowledged the need for more RB depth to reduce his workload. Neither of them has ever been this adamant about that before in the past. CMC also said this past season was the toughest of his career.

(4) CMC’s average long run per game dropped to 13 yards last season compared to 20 yards in previous years (Fantasy Footballers). Could be a symptom of o-line/offense, toll of a large workload, and/or declining explosiveness.

So with all that, it feels like there are two paths you can go down with this info:

(A) Fade him off a monster year, knowing it will be tough to repeat, and there are already some warning flags.
(B) Ride him until the wheels fall off, because even if the reduced workload stuff is true, a 70%-90% CMC is still really, really, good (and fun to have on your team).

Which side are you taking?

For my latest Fantrax article, I break down my Top 5 NFL Draft WR landing spots for Dynasty Fantasy Football.

Below is my list. Before we open this up for debate, I just ask you check out the article for WHY I have these teams ranked that way. Context is always key.

5. 49ers

6. Raiders

7. Saints

8. Commanders

9. Dolphins

Hope you guys enjoy it! Let me know your Top 5

Skrip

It has been almost 500 days since he played a real game. Two knee injuries before he even turned 22. I want to believe because the talent was obvious at Texas but at some point you have to wonder if his body is just not built for the NFL. The reports out of OTAs sound positive but they always do this time of year. I am not touching him at his current ADP. Too much risk for a guy who might never be the same. Let someone else draft him and hope for the best. If he falls late I might take a swing but I am not reaching. What do you think. Are you buying or selling him this draft season. Is he gonna prove everyone wrong or is his career already over before it really started.