The DE Star-Predictor Score (SPS) Is Here!
SPS All-Time Database - Now With DE
The “Does It Matter?” Series is back! In the last article we looked at Tight End Breakout Ages for part 100 to find whether that affects performance. For the 101st part of “Does It Matter?” we looked at our Defensive End Star-Predictor Score (SPS) model. In this article, we found an optimal range you should look for in athletes, and walk you through exactly where and how this is applicable in scouting prospects for your IDP drafts.
Currently, 46 Pro Bowl appearances, 6 DPOYs, 12 First Team All-Pros, 800+ career sacks, and at least 1 future first ballot Hall-of-Famer reside in the top 10 all-time DE SPS grades.
As mentioned in the article, some of the most recent “call your shot” moments for the SPS have Aidan Hutchinson at 90.6 SPS and Travon Walker at 81.4. Aidan has an SPS grade in the top 10 all-time DE SPS grades. Going back to the 2018 NFL Draft specifically, the top 3 DE SPS grades were in order of: Nick Bosa, Maxx Crosby, Brian Burns. As far as the 2018 DE class draft order, Bosa was taken 1st, followed by Brian Burns 3rd, then Crosby taken as the 10th DE. Their SPS grades show their underrated value – especially Crosby being taken as the 10th DE but being the 3rd overall DE SPS in that class.
It’s those deep contrasts from the overall consensus and those big contrasts between players that the SPS has been great at “planting its flag” with. Just like any other analytical model or method, there will always be misses, but the true test is the test against draft capital. This is why the whole SPS database includes draft capital to compare against and all of our research compares the SPS grades against draft capital positionally. Which brings me to another point: we are not the type to think or assume film does not matter. When a highly accurate film analyst is shouting from the rooftop about a player, we still stop and listen (although Steve Smith still owes me a 2.02 for the Matthew Golden advice). By no means are we saying the SPS is a bible, but as always, film and analytics should be used alongside each other to gauge the full picture on prospects. Film 🤝 Analytics.
For those curious about the Pearson value of draft capital and the SPS, we tested both draft capital and the SPS comparing each against career fantasy points scored within the first 4 rounds (which is where the DE SPS specializes in):
- Draft Capital to career fantasy points for all 1st through 4th round DE’s since 2003: -0.325
- Star-Predictor Score (SPS) to career fantasy points for all 1st through 4th round DE’s since 2003: 0.448
After the 4th round, the SPS’s predictiveness over draft capital slopes down to being only marginal. Therefore, DE’s after round 4 won’t be seen in the SPS database.
You can find the all-time SPS, which has QB’s, RB’s, WR’s, TE’s, and now DE’s here.
Sneak peek: We are also currently developing our own fantasy football platform with a unique and extremely fun twist on how fantasy football is played. Along with that, we are soon announcing our official fantasy football mock draft simulator (free to use) once all feedback comes in, but while we are here we thought we’d include it in this post for everyone to check out in the meanwhile (feedback appreciated).