The situation is highly uncertain right now. We tested the upper boundary but pulled back, though another retest is still possible.

Price could break above the $80,000 area, but a full correction toward the lower boundary is also on the table.

No need to rush conclusions here, better to stay patient and watch how this plays out.

We return to the idea from March 11, where the market was building an upward structure with targets above current levels, and that scenario is still unfolding. Price keeps pushing higher step by step and is now getting close to a major resistance zone around 2600. This area is where profit taking can kick in, sellers tend to become more active, and short term momentum can slow down or pause. At the same time, the distance to this level is already small, so a touch of 2600 looks very realistic under the current pace.

If buyers keep control and structure holds, I don’t rule out continuation beyond the main target toward 2800. That move would likely require a clean push through resistance, stronger demand, and fresh liquidity entering the market, which would signal a more aggressive bullish phase rather than just a local push.

At the same time, there’s still a large pocket of liquidity sitting below around 2100. That zone holds a cluster of stops and interest from bigger players, so it remains a magnet for price in case of a pullback. The market often moves up first, tags resistance, and only then comes back to sweep liquidity before deciding on the next direction.

So the structure still points to a push toward 2600–2800, but the possibility of a return to 2100 for liquidity grab stays on the table. This kind of two step behavior is pretty typical when the market builds momentum but leaves unfinished zones behind.

P. S. This is not financial advice, just market observation.

An unknown trader entered nearly $760M into a short on oil just 20 minutes before a major statement from Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Given similar bets in the past, this no longer looks like intuition but more like unusually precise timing ahead of the news.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has already launched an investigation, because moves like this rarely go unnoticed. When someone consistently positions ahead of major market events, it starts to look less like trading and more like access to information others don’t have.

Right now the market is showing a clear increase in manipulation and uncertainty, making trading noticeably harder and less predictable. The impact of the news cycle and political statements, especially from Donald Trump, is becoming impossible to ignore. These triggers are capable of driving sharp impulsive moves, creating fake breakouts and amplifying volatility across the board.

In this environment, it’s important to understand that price is no longer reacting to technicals alone. Informational pressure is playing a major role, often overriding clean setups and distorting market structure.

From a structural perspective, attention should stay on the main liquidity zones where real battles between buyers and sellers are likely to take place. The $73,000 level stands out as a reaction area, with dense order flow, clustered liquidity and a high probability of stop hunts. It may act as a temporary pivot but not necessarily a final decision point.

The $70,000 zone carries more weight. This is where stronger buyer interest is expected, where positions are likely to be built, and where a more meaningful support reaction could form. If the market is looking for a real answer, it will most likely show it there.

This week remains relatively light in terms of macro events, which often leads to weaker directional conviction and more range-bound behavior. That typically opens the door for increased manipulation and choppy price action.

Thursday stands out as a key day, along with the April 29 interest rate decision and comments from the Federal Reserve. The market will be focused not only on the rate itself, but on forward guidance, tone, and signals around inflation and the broader economy.

In conditions like these, discipline matters more than ever. React to confirmation, not assumptions. Keep tracking liquidity zones, especially $73,000 and $70,000, and avoid getting pulled into emotional decisions driven by noise.

P.S. This is not financial advice. Decisions should always be made based on your own strategy and understanding of the market.

XRP is showing a pretty uncomfortable setup right now. For a long time price and exchange reserves were moving together, clean and predictable. Now that link is broken. Price keeps sliding, but reserves on exchanges are not going anywhere, even ticking up a bit. That usually means one thing supply is sitting there, ready to get dumped.

When coins flow onto exchanges during weakness, it’s rarely bullish. It tells you that market participants are positioning to sell into any bounce. So every small pump starts looking more like an exit opportunity than the start of a real move. Liquidity is there, but it’s not the kind you want on the buy side.

Another thing to keep in mind when price jumps without reserves dropping, it’s often just derivatives noise. Fast moves, hype, maybe some short squeezes, but no real spot demand backing it. Those moves tend to fade just as quickly as they appear.

Right now the healthy structure just isn’t there. You’d want to see reserves going down while price climbs that would mean coins are leaving exchanges and supply is drying up. Instead, we’ve got the opposite vibe:

supply stays, price bleeds.

If you look at similar setups in the past, the pattern is pretty consistent:

1. Price stays weak or chops sideways for longer than expected

2. Bounces look decent at first but get sold into fast

3. No real trend forms until exchange reserves start dropping.

Since this data is coming from Binance, it’s not some random signal. This is one of the main liquidity hubs, where big players move size. If supply shows up here, it usually matters.

So overall, this kind of divergence doesn’t resolve magically. Market has to rebalance. And more often than not, that happens through price adjusting to the supply, not the other way around. That’s why the idea of XRP drifting toward a cleaner equilibrium zone around $2 doesn’t sound crazy at all.

By the end of the week, the main US stock index fully recovered the drop that started alongside the Middle East conflict and pushed to a new high around $7,000.

On the daily timeframe, a bullish structure has formed, specifically an expanding triangle with diverging trendlines.

At this point, several key levels have already been broken to the upside: the ascending trendline (upper boundary of the triangle), the previous ATH around $7,000, and both the 50 and 200-day moving averages.

The only bearish signal for now is RSI showing overbought conditions, and any downside could be triggered by news flow. Overall, I still see continuation to the upside as the priority scenario.

In the latest posts we said that the markets look set for a continuation of the recovery.

If we take ETH as an example, it has already fulfilled more than half of the publicly expected upside.

As mentioned earlier, the priority target now is to fill the CME gap around $2500, so there is still room for movement at least in the short term.

Overall, the recommendation remains the same. There is no need to focus too much on the news.

The stock market is growing extremely strongly and is about +1.6% away from updating its all-time highs.

Crypto is following and also showing recovery while ignoring the negative backdrop.

At the same time, I see people continuing to look for entry points only for shorts.

As a result, the main tendency is taking profits on longs and searching for short entries.

There is still a consensus in the market that everything is bad and that recovery will not be allowed, but despite these expectations and due to short liquidity, the markets continue to grow even with such an inflated negative sentiment.

If the US and Iran do reach an agreement and there is no new escalation in the form of a ground operation, the strength of the move up could surprise many.

The only scenario in which I would be ready to switch to expecting downside is if a ground operation begins, but for now the charts are clearly not pricing in such an event.