The situation is highly uncertain right now. We tested the upper boundary but pulled back, though another retest is still possible.

Price could break above the $80,000 area, but a full correction toward the lower boundary is also on the table.

No need to rush conclusions here, better to stay patient and watch how this plays out.

his company Bitmine has increased the pace of ETH accumulation on its balance sheet in anticipation of a moon move

ZRO played out exactly as expected, the correction into the $1.5 support came clean and got tested today, we saw a small bounce but it looks weak and more like a pause than a reversal, market structure still points down and I’m expecting a proper breakdown below that level, there’s still room to fall and the next magnet sits around $1.2 in the mid term, that’s where price is likely heading if momentum doesn’t shift.

Up until Friday the market was pricing in a positive outcome around Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the move we saw was driven by expectations, not actual confirmed change. When the “reopening” headline finally dropped, it turned into a classic sell the news reaction because that scenario had already been priced in all week.

Now that bullish narrative is largely exhausted, while new tension is being pushed again talks about a possible end of the truce on April 22 and Iran stepping away from the next negotiation round. But honestly, charts matter more here than headlines.

Ethereum already did what it had to do. The move toward the ~2500 zone was almost fully completed, with a local top around 2464. That means both ETH and BTC are now sitting near the first real reaction zones where reversals tend to start getting aggressive.

Structurally the whole move up looked choppy, more like a zigzag grind than a clean impulsive trend. That usually signals weakness under the surface. If that weakness doesn’t get invalidated soon, the path lower becomes the more likely scenario.

At the same time equities have been running hot for weeks and are due for a cooldown, and crypto has reached areas where reactions are expected. Add to that the fact that most of the positive news is already priced in, and the market just doesn’t have fresh fuel right now.

For me, further upside only makes sense if we see that weakness break and a strong impulsive move take control. Until then, the market looks fragile, and downside becomes the priority scenario.

At the moment, the situation looks quite interesting there are several bullish patterns that already triggered a positive reaction, but overall the picture feels misleading.

There is no volume, no real buyer interest, and no meaningful updates on the project’s development. In my view, the chances of sustaining this trend are low.

Reversal structures are already forming, and in the near term I expect the price to move toward the $0.85 area.

The project is losing ground to competitors, so buying it at this stage doesn’t look justified

U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal has requested more details from the U.S. Department of Justice and Financial Crimes Enforcement Network on how Binance is being monitored for compliance with anti-money laundering rules and sanctions.

The request follows concerns about potential weaknesses in Binance’s control systems, particularly related to operations involving Iran.

Back in 2023, Binance and Changpeng Zhao reached a deal with U.S. authorities, agreeing to pay $4.3 billion and submit to enhanced oversight and reporting.

Blumenthal is now questioning whether that oversight is actually effective, amid renewed compliance concerns.

The situation is also drawing attention due to past scrutiny over alleged connections between Binance and entities linked to Donald Trump, which previously sparked political criticism in the U.S.

The coin was heavily pumped and managed to test the $9 area, but such a sharp move triggered strong selling pressure, leading to a pullback.

The move played out quickly, and it can just as fast reverse back, market manipulation is still in play.

If you somehow caught this move and bought around $3, now is the time to exit the position.

The previous two posts got a lot of reposts, so I’ll add a bit more to this topic. In the exchange market there are two main directions cash and non-cash.

Because of P2P limitations, account blocks and other issues, non-cash exchanges have become quite expensive and problematic.

To cover costs and risks, exchangers and traders keep a wide spread between buy and sell prices, and those costs are passed on to you.

Another issue is the flow of grey or stolen funds. Statistically, once every few thousand transactions there is a very high chance of ending up in a situation that requires investigation.

I used to work in P2P for a long time with large volumes, but now my personal view is that if you want to avoid long-term problems and get better rates, it makes more sense to move toward cash deals.

P2P has largely lost its edge and is now often used for questionable flows or at best grey money. In most cases, buying USDT with cash offers a better rate than P2P.

Over the past few years, demand for USDT has consistently exceeded supply, so it’s normal to see a premium of around 0.5–2% relative to USD.

Everything depends on the market phase and patterns we discussed earlier.

If you ignore this, you can easily lose 2–4% of your capital on deposits and withdrawals alone. Planning your actions and going against the crowd usually gives a better outcome.

So what is a fair rate? Large desks typically operate with a spread of around 0.3% between buy and sell.

For example, they might sell USDT at +0.7% and buy at +0.4%. More aggressive players can push spreads to 0.5–1% or higher.

There are still plenty of exchangers charging 1–2% in either direction, and people keep using them simply because they don’t know there are cheaper options. There are many more nuances in this space, but even these basic patterns are ignored by most participants.

Most exchanges are done impulsively, with little attention to pricing.

Wait for lower rates when everyone is selling, and exit when demand spikes. This way you not only preserve capital but can also profit from the spread without drawing attention.

The S&P 500 has pushed to fresh all time highs, breaking above 7000, while most headlines still revolve around uncertainty and fear.

If you scroll through earlier replies, we were calling for continuation from the 6600 zone, and the move played out almost exactly as expected!

This is another reminder that markets price in outcomes long before the narrative catches up, even when the news flow tries to pull sentiment in the opposite direction.

Right now the gap between what people feel and what the charts show is getting wider, and usually that only resolves one way.

As you’ve probably noticed, most people almost never prepare in advance and move USDT in and out impulsively.

The strongest trigger is sharp market movement

It may sound paradoxical, but the harder and faster the market drops, the more aggressive the demand for stablecoins becomes.

During heavy dumps people see an opportunity to average positions, but at the same time many are forced to buy stablecoins to protect futures positions from liquidation.

As a result, during strong sell-offs premiums on USDT rise very quickly

At the same time there is another pattern the longer the market grows, the more people tend to take profits and move into cash.

If the market shows steady growth and enters an overheated phase, premiums on USDT start to fall, which creates a good moment for buying, but not for selling.

If you want to sell USDT at the best price wait for a sharp dump, that’s when pricing becomes most profit.

The highest premiums I’ve ever seen were during the COVID crash, when stablecoins were bought at +40–60% and liquidity almost disappeared everywhere.

A similar situation happened in 2022, when after a -30% drop all sell orders on p2p were instantly taken even with +7–10% premiums.

In more common scenarios, even a -15–20% drop is enough to push premiums up by a few percent

What’s interesting is that even if people already have cash prepared, they still tend to enter the market at the last moment under emotional pressure.

Same with selling most don’t plan ahead and end up exchanging at the end of the month, together with everyone else.

In the end, the majority buys stablecoins expensive during panic and sells them cheap when supply peaks.even tracking patterns like this already puts you ahead of most market participants

In the latest posts we said that the markets look set for a continuation of the recovery.

If we take ETH as an example, it has already fulfilled more than half of the publicly expected upside.

As mentioned earlier, the priority target now is to fill the CME gap around $2500, so there is still room for movement at least in the short term.

Overall, the recommendation remains the same. There is no need to focus too much on the news.

The stock market is growing extremely strongly and is about +1.6% away from updating its all-time highs.

Crypto is following and also showing recovery while ignoring the negative backdrop.

At the same time, I see people continuing to look for entry points only for shorts.

As a result, the main tendency is taking profits on longs and searching for short entries.

There is still a consensus in the market that everything is bad and that recovery will not be allowed, but despite these expectations and due to short liquidity, the markets continue to grow even with such an inflated negative sentiment.

If the US and Iran do reach an agreement and there is no new escalation in the form of a ground operation, the strength of the move up could surprise many.

The only scenario in which I would be ready to switch to expecting downside is if a ground operation begins, but for now the charts are clearly not pricing in such an event.

In the previous overview, I pointed to a potential 20% decline, but the coin moved even lower into the $0.24 zone, where a bounce was formed.

However, the current upward movement is only happening on the back of BTC growth, as we remain highly correlated, so it can’t really be considered a full recovery.

Globally, the scenario still remains bearish, as buyer activity is still absent and no meaningful demand is visible in the near term.

First let’s go through the timeline of events and then look at the impact on the charts.

Friday 10.04: a ceasefire and the start of negotiations were announced. Markets started to rise strongly.

Sunday 12.04: the delegations did not reach agreements. There will be no deal due to disagreements over uranium enrichment. Crypto started to decline, equities were closed.

Monday 13.04: the US announces a naval blockade of Iran and threats of a new escalation.

How should markets have reacted? Nothing positive, but today equities are trading ABOVE Friday’s closing levels.

That means prices are once again pricing in more positivity than was priced in at the moment of the ceasefire announcement.

Today there were many news injections and both sides were inflating rhetoric, but the chart once again shows that the market is ignoring all this noise.

They are again talking about readiness to continue dialogue and negotiate and all that, but the information being pushed into the news space is clearly not meant to give confidence in positions.

If we rely only on the news, they will definitely push us to sell positions and open shorts in expectation of even more negative events.

But the paradox is how irrationally the charts behave against all these news injections.They continue to rise and ignore even extremely negative statements and actions.

If we talk about crypto, Bitcoin also absorbed the negativity around the negotiations and returned to the levels of Friday’s positive.

So markets are once again pricing in more positive expectations, while the news makes you doubt and exit positions. Right now we clearly see the divergence between what is written in the news and how the charts react to it. There is a high probability that in April we will already see the resolution of this whole flip show.