We return to the idea from March 11, where the market was building an upward structure with targets above current levels, and that scenario is still unfolding. Price keeps pushing higher step by step and is now getting close to a major resistance zone around 2600. This area is where profit taking can kick in, sellers tend to become more active, and short term momentum can slow down or pause. At the same time, the distance to this level is already small, so a touch of 2600 looks very realistic under the current pace.

If buyers keep control and structure holds, I don’t rule out continuation beyond the main target toward 2800. That move would likely require a clean push through resistance, stronger demand, and fresh liquidity entering the market, which would signal a more aggressive bullish phase rather than just a local push.

At the same time, there’s still a large pocket of liquidity sitting below around 2100. That zone holds a cluster of stops and interest from bigger players, so it remains a magnet for price in case of a pullback. The market often moves up first, tags resistance, and only then comes back to sweep liquidity before deciding on the next direction.

So the structure still points to a push toward 2600–2800, but the possibility of a return to 2100 for liquidity grab stays on the table. This kind of two step behavior is pretty typical when the market builds momentum but leaves unfinished zones behind.

P. S. This is not financial advice, just market observation.

Right now the market is showing a clear increase in manipulation and uncertainty, making trading noticeably harder and less predictable. The impact of the news cycle and political statements, especially from Donald Trump, is becoming impossible to ignore. These triggers are capable of driving sharp impulsive moves, creating fake breakouts and amplifying volatility across the board.

In this environment, it’s important to understand that price is no longer reacting to technicals alone. Informational pressure is playing a major role, often overriding clean setups and distorting market structure.

From a structural perspective, attention should stay on the main liquidity zones where real battles between buyers and sellers are likely to take place. The $73,000 level stands out as a reaction area, with dense order flow, clustered liquidity and a high probability of stop hunts. It may act as a temporary pivot but not necessarily a final decision point.

The $70,000 zone carries more weight. This is where stronger buyer interest is expected, where positions are likely to be built, and where a more meaningful support reaction could form. If the market is looking for a real answer, it will most likely show it there.

This week remains relatively light in terms of macro events, which often leads to weaker directional conviction and more range-bound behavior. That typically opens the door for increased manipulation and choppy price action.

Thursday stands out as a key day, along with the April 29 interest rate decision and comments from the Federal Reserve. The market will be focused not only on the rate itself, but on forward guidance, tone, and signals around inflation and the broader economy.

In conditions like these, discipline matters more than ever. React to confirmation, not assumptions. Keep tracking liquidity zones, especially $73,000 and $70,000, and avoid getting pulled into emotional decisions driven by noise.

P.S. This is not financial advice. Decisions should always be made based on your own strategy and understanding of the market.

An unknown trader entered nearly $760M into a short on oil just 20 minutes before a major statement from Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Given similar bets in the past, this no longer looks like intuition but more like unusually precise timing ahead of the news.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has already launched an investigation, because moves like this rarely go unnoticed. When someone consistently positions ahead of major market events, it starts to look less like trading and more like access to information others don’t have.

RaveDAO token collapsed over 90% from $27 to around $1.6, wiping out roughly $6.3B in market cap. On the surface it looked like a sharp reversal, but too many details point to a textbook pump and dump.

According to ZachXBT, up to 90% of the supply was controlled by insiders. On top of that, around $75,000 was reportedly spent to create 10,500 fake wallets with small balances to meet holder requirements and secure listings on major exchanges like Binance, Bitget, and Coinbase. Then came the predictable part a push toward ~$27B FDV followed by heavy insider selling.

Exchanges have already started internal investigations, while liquidations over the past day reached around $47–48M. As expected in such cases, the RaveDAO team denies any involvement, calling it “noise”. Sure. The price pumped itself, dumped itself, and the blockchain wrote the script.

April 13 we warned about this.

The takeaway is simple: when a token goes vertical in a week and supply distribution looks like a closed club, it’s not an opportunity, it’s a well-disguised trap.

By the end of the week, the main US stock index fully recovered the drop that started alongside the Middle East conflict and pushed to a new high around $7,000.

On the daily timeframe, a bullish structure has formed, specifically an expanding triangle with diverging trendlines.

At this point, several key levels have already been broken to the upside: the ascending trendline (upper boundary of the triangle), the previous ATH around $7,000, and both the 50 and 200-day moving averages.

The only bearish signal for now is RSI showing overbought conditions, and any downside could be triggered by news flow. Overall, I still see continuation to the upside as the priority scenario.

On the news of reopening shipping routes in the region, BTC gained over 5% in the past 24 hours.

Additional momentum came after Donald Trump stated that navigation through Hormuz would be restored, while restrictions on Iranian vessels remain in place.

Over the last 24 hours, more than $823M in positions were liquidated.

Longs accounted for over $159M, while shorts took more than $664M.

More than 195K traders were affected.

The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, is once again aggressively accumulating Bitcoin through its spot ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), pushing its position into the tens of billions of dollars. At the same time, competitors are cutting fees and launching new funds, while BlackRock continues expanding its crypto product lineup and reporting record inflows.

Yet BTC price action remains stuck below its all-time high, even as institutional money keeps flowing into the market. Geopolitics, the Federal Reserve, aggressive short positioning, and unusual funding behavior are creating a tense backdrop that could lead to an outcome very different from what most are expecting.

Musk suggests that U.S. authorities may need to distribute money to the population as artificial intelligence replaces human jobs.

A study by Novora covering more than 150 major crypto protocols found that market maker agreements are almost never disclosed, despite their critical role in token trading.

Less than 1% of projects provide any public details, with Meteora being one of the rare cases that shared information about such arrangements.

The research spans multiple sectors including DEXs, lending protocols, perpetual platforms, L1 and L2 networks, bridges, and exchange tokens.

It also highlights a broader communication gap: while 91% of projects generate trackable revenue, only 18% publish quarterly updates and just 8% release reports for token holders.

Against this backdrop, opaque market maker models draw increasing attention, especially setups where tokens are loaned to provide liquidity, potentially creating incentives to sell into the market and pressure price.

Let’s take a look at what we have. Bitcoin has shown decent growth over the past couple of days, gaining nearly 8% since the start of the week. The trendline coming down from the ATH has been broken. As usual lately, the move was driven mostly by news and trader expectations. Short liquidations on March 13 reached $218.498M.

From a technical standpoint, this move still looks very uncertain. Growth driven by news without strong volume can reverse at any moment. If buyers fail to hold this level and price drops back to the $72,500 area, sellers will likely take control again, seeing this as a false breakout and a sign of buyer weakness, which would increase downward pressure.

For now, I still see the market under seller control. As mentioned in the previous analysis, buyers need to push toward the $80,000 zone to break that control.

This pattern usually reflects a sharp increase in selling pressure, a shift in control after a local upward move, and a higher probability of continued downside.

Based on that, I expect the decline to continue over the next 1–2 days. After a bearish engulfing, the market often moves into a phase of taking liquidity from below.

The nearest liquidity level is around 2,150, followed by a stronger support zone near 2,015.

The move toward these levels may be accompanied by stop-loss hunting below, acceleration on local support breakdowns, and increased volatility.

There are no major macroeconomic releases this week that could directly impact the market.

However, geopolitical uncertainty remains the key factor, particularly tensions between United States and Iran. Lack of progress in negotiations and the absence of a potential agreement may continue to pressure risk appetite and support further downside.

The market is currently in a highly sensitive phase, so it is important to watch price reaction around 2,150 and 2,015, take the news backdrop into account, and avoid entering trades without confirmation while sticking to your risk management.

P.S. This is an analytical overview, not financial advice.

Let’s look at the daily chart of Bitcoin. The overall structure is leaning bearish.

Price is still trading inside an ascending channel that started from the February lows. During the recent move up, there was a retest of the channel’s midline from below.

After last week’s positive news, the price briefly broke above the midline. However, yesterday’s candle closed as a bearish engulfing, turning that breakout into a false move.

As a result, the probability of this channel turning into a bearish flag has increased. Price is currently moving in line with that scenario.

The asset showed a move similar to Zcash we discussed вчера. The total pump slightly exceeded 30%.

On the daily timeframe, price had been consolidating inside a descending channel. During the pump, the upper boundary was broken to the upside, and both the 50-day and 200-day EMA were taken out.

The move was quite sharp, pushing the RSI oscillator straight into overbought territory.

I believe continuation is likely if price holds above the 200 EMA. Now it needs a clean retest from above.