r/CollegeSoftball

Big East Tournament Day #1
Ivy League Tournament Day #1
NEC Tournament Day #1
Patriot League Tournament Day #1

Big Sky Championship Today! (Idaho State VS Sacramento State, Played In Pocatello, Idaho)
Southland Championship Series Game #1 (Lamar VS McNeese, Played in Lake Charles, Louisiana)

Note From Creator: These threads will list the tournaments that are in day #1 and in the day of the Championship, because I don't want to make a giant list of tournaments ongoing please refer to the conference pages to see the games going on.

Time Slot #1
Patriot League Championship (#1 Boston VS #2 Colgate)

Time Slot #2

MAAC Championship (#1 Marist VS #3 Iona)

Time Slot #3

America East Championship(#2 Binghamton VS #4 UMass Lowell)
American Championship (#1 USF VS #3 East Carolina)
ASUN Championship (#1 Central Arkansas VS #2 Stetson)
Big 12 Championship (#1 Texas Tech VS #6 Arizona State)
Big South Championship (#1 Winthrop VS #2 USC Upstate)
CAA Championship (#1 Hofstra VS #5 Charleston)
CUSA Championship (#1 Jacksonville State VS #3 Liberty)
Ivy League Championship (#1 Princeton VS #3 Columbia)
NEC Championship (#2 Central Connecticut VS #3 Wagner)
Ohio Valley Championship (#1 Eastern Illinois VS #3 Lindenwood)

Time Slot #4
A-10 Championship (#1 Loyola Chicago VS #4 Fordham)
Big Ten Championship (#1 Nebraska VS #2 UCLA)
Horizon League Championship (#2 Northern Kentucky VS #3 Robert Morris or #5 Green Bay)
MAC Championship (#1 Akron VS #4 Ohio or #6 Western Michigan)

Time Slot #5

Big East Championship (#2 UConn VS #3 Creighton)
Missouri Valley Championship (#1 Belmont VS #3 Murray State)
Summit League Championship (#1 Omaha VS #4 South Dakota)
WAC Championship (#1 Cal Baptist VS #2 Tarleton State)

Time Slot 5.5

ACC Championship (#1 Florida State VS #3 Virginia Tech
Sun Belt Championship (#3 Texas State VS #5 South Alabama)

Time Slot #6
MEAC Championship (#1 Howard VS #2 Delaware State or #5 South Carolina State)
Mountain West Championship (#1 Grand Canyon VS #3 Nevada)

Time Slot #7
Big West Championship (#1 Cal State Fullerton VS #4 UC Santa Barbara)

Time Slot #8
SEC Championship (#2 Alabama VS #4 Texas)

-----------------------------------

Note From Author: I tried my best with scheduling this, however There were several sites with several different times for each game and with conversion I have stuck with the D1 softball times however I do not know what time zone they are using on their site therefore I have not listed any official times. For me D1 Softball Puts Time Slot #1 at 10 AM, each time slot is one hour after the next, however the Sun Belt was a half hour after Time Slot #4 therefore I put the .5 after 4

Havent seen this in a min but I love these threads.

please share your hot takes for regionals

My model compares all 308 teams against all the other teams, all at once, using the score differentials of ALL the games, taking into account how good each opponent is, to create a statistically optimal estimate of how good each team is at scoring runs while stopping the opponent from scoring runs. The output is what I call Run Strength, and each team gets a number. But the number is meaningless by itself, you have to compare the Run Strength of two teams to see how close they are. Also, Run Strength is expressed in terms of Runs per Game, since those are the numbers you see on the scoreboard, and everyone knows what a run means as opposed to just showing a percentage. As for comparing my top performers against what the NCAA’s top 32, I’ve linked my top 50 at the bottom, but 31 of the NCAA’s top 32 are in my top 38. So it’s not a perfect match-up, but it’s pretty close considering I’m not doing any manual tweaking, and just printing out what the math says.

Also, Run Strength is a negative number, and I did that partially to keep people from thinking each individual number meant something all by itself. If UCLA (Run Strength -1.02, which is only one run away from the top of the range) plays Oregon (Run Strength -3.10) a large number of times, we expect on average that UCLA will win by about 2 runs. That’s what Run Strength means, and the underlying math is set up to explicitly maximize the likelihood that’s the correct answer.

The league-wide standard deviation of the unmodeled performance is about 4.6 Runs per Game, so if you know how to use that information, feel free.

Anyway, I’m going through the 16 regionals here and posting the Run Strength difference between the top teams, and then at the bottom saying which ones seem pretty close and most likely to hold an upset. Note: I’m not considering the double-elimination aspect of this at all right now. Just know that the more games played, the better the Run Strength should describe what actually happens.

1 Alabama: SELA is about 4 runs weaker than the Tide, so not a likely upset.

2 Texas: I actually have Baylor as slightly stronger than Wisconsin (47 and 50 in my rankings), But Texas is stronger by about 6 runs. This regional is VERY unlikely to upset. This is the LEAST LIKELY upset mathematically, but I have faith that Mike White will find a way to suck so badly he can overcome the odds and leave Texas watching the Supers from the couch.

3 Oklahoma: I have Kansas and Michigan as nearly equal (34 and 35 in my rankings), both around 5.5 runs behind OU. Not a likely upset.

4 Nebraska: I have Louisville and Grand Canyon as nearly equal, at 28th and 29th in my rankings, both about 4.75 runs behind Jordy and the Huskers. Mathematically this is an unlikely upset, but Nebraska is trending up, and so I personally think this is the most certain Regional there is. I would bet my car on it, if winning meant I kept my car and got a nice sandwich out of the deal.

5 Arkansas: only 3.5 runs better than Washington. This is getting into the territory where an Arkansas single-game loss to Wash is around a 1-in-5 territory.

6 Florida: I have Georgia Tech as 0.8 runs better than Texas State, and only 3 runs behind Florida. If Florida gets upset, I think it will be by the unseeded Rambling Wrecks. But not particularly likely.

7 Tennessee: My model has Tennessee tied for 13th with Virginia Tech, and trending down across the season, which suggests that maybe the other rankings are done by humans who really like a good fastball, and think it excuses a lack of hitting. Anyway, I have Indiana as 1.6 runs better than Virginia, so that’s who I would watch here. And Indiana is only 1.35 runs behind Tennessee. So this is STRONG unintended-upset territory in my book. Mind you, Indiana is my model’s top pick that the NCAA didn’t seed, I have them at #21. And as already mentioned, my model doesn’t see Tennessee as all that strong. So I see an upset here as relatively likely. This is by far the place with the strongest disagreement between my model and what the NCAA / ESPN thinks is likely.

8 UCLA: I have South Carolina as 3.2 runs behind UCLA, so not a particularly strong chance of upset here

9 Florida State ‘University’: UCF is about 2.8 runs behind FSU, so not upset territory, but not as far as some others.

10 Georgia: Clemson is 3.65 runs behind, not a likely upset.

11 Texas Tech: my model has the Red Raiders as 4th overall just behind Texas, so I’m estimating them to be stronger than the NCAA thinks they are. They’re 3.75 runs better than Ole Miss, so I think not a likely upset, not nearly as likely as would be implied by their 11th seed.

12 Duke: I have Arizona as only 0.4 runs behind Duke. Per my model, this is basically a toss-up.

13 OK State: Stanford is only 0.5 runs behind the Cowgirls. Again, this is the edge of toss-up territory. Go Cardinal!

14 Oregon: Miss St is about 0.75 runs behind Oregon. Approaching toss-up territory. Quack.

15 TAMU: ASU is about 1.4 runs behind TAMU. So not really toss-up territory, but TAMU did manage to miraculously get a good seat on the couch for the Supers last year, so who knows?

16 LSU: My model puts LSU and VA Tech at 12th and 13th, with only 0.35 runs separating them. I guess it’s good that my model shows the most likely regional upset as the NCAA’s 16th host team, it means my model probably isn’t stupid.

So, the most likely upsets are the ones you’d expect, the 12th through 16th seeds. But TAMU doesn’t really belong there I don’t think, maybe that’s the committee punishing them for last year’s embarrassment? The most likely surprise-upset is Indiana over Tennessee, and I think the committee messed up by seeding Virginia instead of Indiana there. So my model mostly agrees with the NCAA seeding, except the Tennessee regional, where I think they’ve unknowingly set up an upset that’s more likely than they were intending. Also, I’ve watched exactly zero innings of Tennessee or Indiana softball this season, these predictions are based solely on game outcomes and linear algebra.

But all that said, my model does predict each individual regional’s most likely victor is the host. But it does not account for home field advantage at all.

My Top 50, along with how they line up with the NCAA’s seeding: https://old.reddit.com/r/CollegeSoftball/comments/1t8we0y/final_strengths_and_rankings_all_308_teams/ol4dww1/

I will be watching Nebraska to win impressively, Tennessee to squeak by possibly dropping a game, Texas to find a way to be embarrassed by Mike White, and the other real contenders to use this round as a warmup for the Supers.

ACC Tournament Day #1
Big South Tournament Day #1
Big Ten Tournament Day #1
CAA Tournament Day #1
CUSA Tournament Day #1
Big West Tournament Day #1
Horizon League Tournament Day #1
MAAC Tournament Day #1
MAC Tournament Day #1
MEAC Tournament Day #1
Missouri Valley Tournament Day #1
Mountain West Tournament Day #1
Ohio Valley Tournament Day #1
SoCon Tournament Day #1
Summit League Tournament Day #1
Sun Belt Tournament Day #1
WAC Tournament Day #1

Note From Creator: These threads will list the tournaments that are in day #1 and in the day of the Championship, because I don't want to make a giant list of tournaments ongoing please refer to the conference pages to see the games going on.

ESPN has announced the the commentators for regionals.

Alabama: Nate Gatter, Monica Abbott
Texas: Alex Loeb, Cat Osterman
Oklahoma: Lowell Galindo, Jennie Ritter
Nebraska: Beth Mowins, Michele Smith, Jessica Mendoza
Arkansas: Krista Blunk, Aleshia Ocasio
Florida: Kevin Fitzgerald, Nicole Mendes
Tennessee: Matt Schumacker, Amanda Scarbourogh
UCLA: Courtney Lyle, Danielle Lawrie
Florida State: Clay Matvick, Raine Wilson
Georgia: Mark Neely, Carol Bruggeman
Texas Tech: Tiffany Greene, Erin Miller Thiessen
Duke: Chuckie Kempf, Jenny Dalton-Hill
Oklahoma State: Trey Bender, Natasha Watley
Oregon: Mike Couzens, Kenzie Fowler
Texas A&M: Eric Frede, Madison Shipman
LSU: Alex Perlman, Brittany McKinney

7 innings Live will also be hosted by Kris Budden, Alyssa Lang, Tara Henry and Tori Vidales.

All games can be watched on the ESPN App. For a couple of game you need to be in network with the ACC Channel. You also will need to have ESPN+ for some.

Now that the bracket is officially out, I feel like this year’s regionals might be one of the most unpredictable we’ve had in a while.

There are a few mid-majors that look capable of making real noise, and some of the top seeds definitely didn’t get easy paths. I also think the parity in college softball has gotten way better over the last few seasons, so the “safe picks” don’t feel as safe anymore.

Personally, I’m really curious to see which regional ends up producing the biggest surprise team heading into supers.

What matchup or regional are you all watching the closest this weekend?

The transfer portal has significantly reshaped the landscape for this year’s NCAA Softball Tournament. A few well-timed additions have quickly changed the outlook for some programs. Others have chosen to focus more on internal development and returning players. Texas Tech stands out after adding NiJaree Canady along with impact hitters like Jasmyn Burns and Mia Williams strengthening their roster. It’s created an interesting contrast in team-building philosophies as we head into Regionals, where some teams reload through the portal, and others betting on continuity and homegrown talent. How much do you think the portal has changed this postseason?

Every Conference Tournament Besides the Big Sky Tournament is in some sort of game today

Southland Championship Series Game #2 (Lamar VS McNeese, Played in Lake Charles, Louisiana) McNeese Leads series 1 - 0

Note From Creator: These threads will list the tournaments that are in day #1 and in the day of the Championship, because I don't want to make a giant list of tournaments ongoing please refer to the conference pages to see the games going on.

As we head into NCAA Regionals this weekend, a few teams have put together strong seasons without getting the same national attention as the top SEC seeds. They’ve been consistent, play good fundamental softball, and could be dangerous in a regional or super regional setting. Sometimes these under-the-radar teams end up making the deepest runs because they face less external pressure. Teams like Grand Canyon (46-6 record), Nebraska (on a 21-game winning streak), and Texas Tech led by NiJaree Canady all have the pieces to shake up a bracket. Which teams do you think are being slept on heading into the tournament?

Here are my top 16 seeds. This is the first time I’ve ever predicted the bracket so I’m looking forward to seeing how well I do compared to the what committee shows.

1) Alabama

2. Nebraska

3. Texas

4. Oklahoma

5. Arkansas

6. UCLA

7. Florida

8. Tennessee 

9. Florida State

10. Oregon

11. Georgia

12. Duke

13. LSU

14. Oklahoma State

15. Texas Tech

16. Texas A&M

Just missing hosting was Stanford and Virginia Tech.

I also won’t be shocked if the committee puts Florida at 6 and UCLA at 7. And also Georgia at 10 and Oregon at 11.

Either way I think we will see a UCLA/Georgia and Florida/Oregon in the Supers if all teams advance.

The Norman Regional!

The biggest storyline is to see how OU’s pitching does against Michigan and Kansas who both have pretty good offenses. And Oklahoma vs Kansas is always a little rivalry. 

The weather looks great, will rain later Sunday Night 
 Oklahoma - The best offense in the country belongs to the Sooners. It starts at the top with Kai Minor(.446/9/41) and Ella Parker(..416/21/61). One of the best combos in the country. Kendall Wells(.360/36/79) and Gabbie Garcia(.393/22/68) are both All-Americans. Abby Dayton(.398/8/42) and Isabella Emerling(.395/18/54) are both having the best seasons of their careers. Aliana Agbayani(.376/6/30) has also been outstanding. Kasadi Pickering(.377/17/56) has been having her worst season, but she has still been an absolute monster. 

The pitching is led by Audrey Lowry(21-3/2.70/82). Lowry will you use more of curve and screwball situation, while Miali Guachino(14-2/3.09/102) is more of the rise with a much improved change up. Sydney Berzon(6-2/2.69/35) is going to the more down ball picher. 

Best Win - Texas, Worst Loss - Long Beach State 

Michigan - The wolverines are led by Lauren Putz(.442/21/77). The future All 
American has been very very good. Jenissa Conway(.370/12/44) and Erin Hoehn(.358/5/30) both have been having their best years of all time. While Ella Stephson(.300/10/39) and Lilly Vallimont(.281/10/39) both add power and depth to the lineup. 

The staff is mainly built around Gabby Ellis(13-7/4.26/61) and Erin Hoehn(8-5/4.29/95). Both of these arms need to have the weekend of their lives for them to beat OU. 

Kansas - Kansas is led by the Big 3 of Anna Soles(.360/12/51), Hailey Cripe(.354/15/47), and Ella Boyer(.336/18/57). These three need to do a lot of damage for Kansas to have a successful weekend. Ava Wallace(.329/3/14) and Campbell Bagshaw(.312/10/47) both have had great seasons, Kandace Stafford(.309/7/31) adds great depth to the lineup. Presely Limbaugh(.388/1/16) is the lead off batter, and one of the most underrated leadoffs in the country. 

Pitching - Lila Partridge(9-4/3.95/45) is the ace of the staff, Chole Barber(9-7/4.16/71) and Kaelee Washington(6-4/4.44/31) round out this staff. The pitching will need to step up for this squad to have a good weekend. 

Binghamton - The Binghamton Bears are led by Rachel Carey (.477/14/47), She is the AE Player of the Year. Carey has hit a home run off of SJ Guerin this season. Elisa Allen(.289/16/44), and Darien McDonough(.361/4/30) are also big bats for this lineup. Maddy Dodig(.344/3/27), and Emma Lawson(.336/5/24) are the other bats that give this lineup some depth. 

The pitching is rough, Olivia Kennedy(8-8/4.72/47)  and Savanna McHale(6-3/6.35/24) are the 1 and 2 options will both need to have the weekend of their lives for this squad to win. 

Best win - Syracuse, Worst Loss - Colgate, Their best result was a 4-1 loss vs Virginia Tech.

My Take - Oklahoma wins all 3 games pretty handly. None of these teams will have the pitching, and Lowry + Gauchino are good enough to handle these good offenses. I don’t think OU will mercy any of them. I also have Kansas beating Michigan both time

Top 10 Players 

1. Ella Parker
2. Kendall Wells 
3. Lauren Putz 
4. Gabbie Garcia
5. Kai Minor
6. Isabela Emerling
7. Audrey Lowry
8. Ella Boyer
9. Kasadi Pickering 
10. Abby Dayton

The Committee absolutely stacked this regional! The biggest storylines here is the Southeastern Louisiana and Belmont are back in Tuscaloosa! Both teams were seen as a trendy upset picks, getting sent to the overall number 1 seed. 

The Weather Looks great all weekend, Upper 80s, no rain!

Alabama - The number 1 Overall Seed the Tide are led by Brooke Wells(.404/22/61) and Alexis Pupillo(.403/17/55). They are an elite power combo at the top of the lineup. Marlie Giles(.382/5/28) has been another great option for this lineup at catcher. Freshman Ambrey Taylor(.330/11/35) and Ana Roman(.326/12/42) have also been great in giving the offense depth. Iowa transfer Jena Young(.322/4/26) has been great. Audrey Vanagriff(.308/7/27) has had an underwhelming year, but not a super awful year at all. 

Pitching - It starts with the SEC pitcher of the year Jocelyn Briski(21-3/1.45/175). Her best pitch is her rise, and she is really good at getting weak ground outs with it. Vic Moten(19-4/1.73/158) is the other arm to watch, Moten is also rise, but has better Velo than Briski. Freshman Kaitlyn Pallozzi(8-0/1.57/56)  is the other arm to watch. 

Best Win - Texas, Worst Loss - Samford  

USC Upstate Spartans are led by Sophia Kardtzkate(.404/6/27) and Taliyah Thomas(.418/7/48) Thomas is the Big South Player of the Year and has 7/13 against Power 4 schools. Carson Shaw(.356/5/36) and Abby Polk(.338/3/27) are the other big bats in this lineup. 

Pitching its going to be all Maddie Drenup(20-13/3.26/104). Anna Dickinson(6-4/6.27/22) is the other name to watch, but expect Drenup to get most of the innings this weekend. Dickinson did throw a very good game against Auburn. 

Best win Winthrop, worst Loss - Charleston Southern 

Southeastern Louisiana - The Lions are good. This is a very talented team, that offensively uses a lot of slappers and basestealing. Shelby Morris(.400/3/33) and Cydnee Schenider(.394/1/39) lead the offense. Maria Detillier(.311/9/56) is their main RBI hitter. Ka’Lyn Watson(.359/9/35) is back and fits in super well. And Brilee Ford(.364/5/39) has been a great addition at the bottom of the lineup. 

Pitching stars with Cera Blanchard(13-2/1.08/68) She is going to be a lot of down movement and mostly groundballs, while Hallie Burns(20-4/1.73/76) will be lots of up movement. Bruns is the Southland Pitcher of the year. Burns had a very good outing against Oregon. Macie LaRue(6-3/1.99/65) is the other pitcher to watch. 

Best Win - Oregon, Worst Loss - Nicholls 

Belmont - The Belmont offense revolves around 2 main girls, Rylee Spindler(.456/3/40) 0/1 and Nicole Hughes(.361/8/34) 0/2Madison Dolecki(.301/7/34) is the other one who must show up this weekend. Belmont beat Georgia off a Spindler home run, Dolecki got the RBI vs Mississippi State. These three need to give Johnson some kind of help. 

Maya Johnson(27-2/0.66/381), Best pitcher in the country, has wins over Mississippi State and Georgia. There is no true way to beat her. Best riseball in the country, she has great control, and good Velo. Ellie Gilles(5-2/2.49/54),  is the 2nd option, She is good enough to beat USC Upstate.

My Take - Alabama wins, and Belmont both win Friday. Briski wins game 1 vs Johnson, than Belmont beats SELA again later that night. Johnson beats Moten Sunday afternoon, but Briski gets the win again late Sunday Afternoon 

Top 10 players

1. Maya Johnson
2. Jocelyn Briski
3. Brooke Wells
4. Vic Moten
5. Lexi Pupillo
6. Halle Burns 
7. Shelby Morris 
8. Ana Roman 
9. Marlie Giles 
10. Rylee Splinder

I decided to check each regional and check ticket availability and prices. I'll premise this by saying I only checked StubHub, selected quantity 1 and only selected day 1/game that had host. Unfortunately two locations: TTU amd OSU don't have any tickets listed on Stubhub. The following is the cheapest available for each location. All ticket prices taken from between 12:30-1:00pm Central time on Tuesday May 12.

1. Alabama - $30

2. Texas - $31

3. Oklahoma - $51

4. Nebraska - $120

5. Arkansas - $28

6. Florida - $41

7. Tennessee - $48

8. UCLA - $60

9. FSU - $40

10. Georgia - $38

11. Texas Tech - no tickets listed

12. Duke - $51

13. OSU - no tickets listed

14. Oregon - $38

15. Texas A&M - $29

16. LSU - $44