r/CerebrasSystems

$185

How the hell would they achieve that? They barely have 35-50MW ready today - that means they would have to 5x their output in 8 months, or run the risk of renegotiating or worse, having openAI pull out of their contract entirely, It would be near impossible to execute. Most of their DC are “promising” 2027 readiness. The majority of valuation mostly comes mostly from the openAI contract, with UAE customers and hardware sales not even making the company close to the IPO valuation.

The stock would definitely dip if the targets aren’t reached, or more contract acquisitions don’t happen directly after IPO - their waferscale chip is only ideal for small-mid models, requires purchasing the whole CS-3 system to take advantage of the chip, has limited training etc etc.

Can anyone try to sell me on why this stock is still a buy at an IPO price reaching $160? The openAI deal just isn’t solid enough.

Edit: the 250MW number is from the S-1:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026025762/exhibit1011-sx1.htm

250MW of Capacity by the end of calendar year 2026”, with an additional 250MW by end of 2027 (totaling 500MW), and a further 250MW by end of 2028 (totaling 750MW

Figma was oversubscribed 40x, from 33$ share launched at 89$, peak 2 days later at 125$ and went downhill since there.

Although, Figma isnt in the same league as Cerebras's moat and was easy to see a freaking second rate Adobe wasnt worth that much at 100$(50b) , I still dont trust to buy this shit if it does the same, aka , launching at 250-300$ ( fully diluted mkt cap of 80-100b) on IPO day. Company isnt worth half of SNDK without being proven yet.

What do you think?

Fully diluted MKT cap including

• The OpenAI Elephant (33.4M shares): A massive warrant held by OpenAI. This is the single biggest dilutive factor outside of the founders.
• Employee & Insider Pay (48.5M shares): This includes stock options with a very cheap strike price ($4.97) and RSUs that vest specifically because the IPO is happening.
• Future Hiring Pool (45.9M shares): Shares set aside for the "2026 Plan" and Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP) to attract new talent post-IPO.
• Executive Bonuses (9M shares): Performance-based shares (PRSUs) for the founders/executives.
• Recent Warrants/Issues (6.4M shares): Miscellaneous shares and high-priced warrants ($100 strike) issued just before the IPO.

at 130$ with all this dilution including , mkt cap is around 40b, so a 300$ will be around 100b

So when you decide to buy the IPO, what MKT CAP fully diluted valuation you think it s a good bet?

Cerebras is IPOing next week around $125/share implying a ~$40B valuation. Help me understand the multiple here because something feels off.

They have a Master Relationship Agreement with OpenAI signed in January 2026 worth more than $20 billion over 3 years - 250 megawatts of AI compute per year in 2026, 2027, and 2028 for a base of 750MW total. That implies roughly $6-7 billion in annual revenue just from OpenAI alone.

On top of that OpenAI has expansion options for an additional 1.25 gigawatts through 2030 which could push total contract value above $50 billion if exercised.

Their 2025 revenue was $510 million. So if the OpenAI deal kicks in fully they're going from $510M to potentially $6-7B in annual revenue almost overnight.

At $40B valuation and $6-7B in forward revenue that's roughly a 6-7x revenue multiple - which for a high growth semiconductor/AI infrastructure company seems almost cheap compared to what Nvidia trades at.

What am I missing? Is the market discounting execution risk on delivering 250MW per year? The customer concentration? The OpenAI kill switch clause?

The price list has been released. To be honest, I’m a bit surprised, because the price is much lower than I expected. From HIive, the price is already around $180, so this pricing is definitely lower than what I expected… I was hoping it would be at least around $150.

suppose you indicate 400 shares of $125 for IPO intentional buy with underwriter like etrade, then you get only 20 shares with $200??? is that the case?

Etrade just alerted. Expected pricing 5/13

I think Taalas has a bright future and could end up owning edge AI chips potentially putting small models into laptops or workstation and be the hard coded brain of cars and robots. But I also have to imagine if Cerebras purchased Taalas or licensed their tech in a partnership, they produce hard coded wafers with Cerebras redundant pathways and wafer cooling. You could see frontier models air cooled with crazy small energy foot print and absolutely unimaginable speed.