What are the main factors behind Florida rapidly shifting from a quintessential swing state to a deep red state?
Recap: Barack Obama won Florida twice. Donald Trump narrowly won Florida in 2016. In 2018, Ron DeSantis won the FL gubernatorial election by a razor thin margin of 0.4% (34,000 votes).
Yet, as of 2026, Florida is basically a safe red state and most Democrats have written it off.
I'm curious about what exactly caused this quintessential swing state to become a deep red state in less than a decade.
Some theories I've heard include:
- The FL Democratic Party being a mess
- The fear of socialism among the Hispanic/Latino population
- Newer retirees being more conservative
- Florida becoming a magnet for conservative in-migration and the hard right turn under DeSantis causing liberal out-migration