u/Resident-Paint-8318

Title

This is what they are:

Largest independent power producer in the US. 44 GW fleet across gas (61%), coal being retired (20% → 0% by 2027), nuclear (15%), solar/battery (4%). Also runs TXU Energy retail brand serving 4.3M customers across 20 states. 100% US, no international operations.

My first concern comes here. They are super focused on gas and with their next acquisition "Cogentrix" they will have even more gas. No diversification or very little. Plus no international expansion.

And here are my bull arguments:

Texas electricity demand growing 10-15% annually, highest of any US region. Vistra dominates ERCOT. Coal exits by 2027 replaced by Cogentrix gas. Meta 2,600 MW and AWS 1,200 MW locked in 20-year nuclear PPAs starting December 2026 and late 2027. Cogentrix 5,500 MW gas acquisition closing H2 2026 adds 14% fleet capacity overnight. Buybacks reduced share count 30% at average $37 cost vs $147 today. Nancy Pelosi holds 5,000 shares. Norway sovereign wealth fund just bought $930M position. Forward P/E 16.5x for a company growing EPS 65% in 2026 which js genuinelv cheap.

And the analyst price targets have an average upside of 66%.

My main concern is the energy mix and the final ruling expected Q3 2026. If FERC rules hostile on behind-the-meter data center deals, analyst targets compress toward $130s which imo could be a pure utility multiple.

Then there is 76% earnings miss in Q4 2025 and that the net income collapsed 66% in 2025.

Why every stock I look at has problems ahhh

This is what they are:

Largest independent power producer in the US. 44 GW fleet across gas (61%), coal being retired (20% → 0% by 2027), nuclear (15%), solar/battery (4%). Also runs TXU Energy retail brand serving 4.3M customers across 20 states. 100% US, no international operations.

My first concern comes here. They are super focused on gas and with their next acquisition "Cogentrix" they will have even more gas. No diversification or very little. Plus no international expansion.

And here are my bull arguments:

Texas electricity demand growing 10-15% annually, highest of any US region. Vistra dominates ERCOT. Coal exits by 2027 replaced by Cogentrix gas. Meta 2,600 MW and AWS 1,200 MW locked in 20-year nuclear PPAs starting December 2026 and late 2027. Cogentrix 5,500 MW gas acquisition closing H2 2026 adds 14% fleet capacity overnight. Buybacks reduced share count 30% at average $37 cost vs $147 today. Nancy Pelosi holds 5,000 shares. Norway sovereign wealth fund just bought $930M position. Forward P/E 16.5x for a company growing EPS 65% in 2026 which js genuinelv cheap.

And the analyst price targets have an average upside of 66%.

My main concern is the energy mix and the final ruling expected Q3 2026. If FERC rules hostile on behind-the-meter data center deals, analyst targets compress toward $130s which imo could be a pure utility multiple.

Then there is 76% earnings miss in Q4 2025 and that the net income collapsed 66% in 2025.

Why every stock I look at has problems ahhh

Im not looking for some 100% gains but 20% so like $1100 per share.

Is it possible? Next earnings so June will we beat our prognosis?

Discount of 40% from ATH, huge backlog, going into drones and announced a partnership with Deutsche Telekom.

Today some bank upgraded it to a "buy". Spending on defense increases and even if the war stops then the depleted magazines need to be refilled.

What do you think?

Discount of 40% from ATH, huge backlog, going into drones and announced a partnership with Deutsche Telekom.

Today some bank upgraded it to a "buy". Spending on defense increases and even if the war stops then the depleted magazines need to be refilled.

What do you think?

I have Vistra and CEG on my radar. Both have contracts with hyper scalers. Both have good rev, margins and rather high upside.

CEG - ran a lot already plus worse performance in bull markets, politically sensitive and a lot of good news is already priced in, beat Q1 massively

Vistra - huge upside, but margin collapse in 2025 is concerning, more energy mix, in Q3 their M&A deal is supposed to close if they pass regulatory approval

VST is primarily a gas company with a nuclear kicker. CEG is primarily a nuclear company with a gas kicker.

CEG bevause has more "green" energy might be the favorite child of tech firms, but still not sure which to pick.

And I know there are SMR but its super speculative so trying not to touch it.

Any ideas? Or maybe you have your own picks like Siemens Energy or GE Vernova?

The stock has good fundamentals, growth and margins. One thing I'm worried are ads, AI scraping, bots and rddt not being as attractive to most as Instagram or sloppy tiktok.

Huge upside based on analyst ratings and 30% from ath.

What do you guys think?

Of course I could invest into Google or Nvidia, but I am open to slightly more risk, and those major firms are already overcrowded + there is a huge rotation of capital into AI/semi/memory. Sure, the market can stay irrational far longer than I can stay solvent but Im buying shares not options, and there isnt only AI industry out there. Here is the list:

CEG - ran a lot already plus worse performance in bull markets, politically sensitive and a lot of good news is already priced in, beat Q1 massively

Vistra - huge upside, but margin collapse in 2025 is concerning, more energy mix

RHM - defence firm with huge upside, free cash flow guidance came in below analyst expectations, missed guidance 3 or 4 times in a row, 42% down from ATH, I perceive as a contrarian move, produces heavy machinery while wars are now based on drones, JPM cut their targets

CSG - czech defence firm, 52% down from IPO due to a short-seller report, which they know dismissed

META - 20% from ATH, Rev/margins and other metrics look good, increased CAPEX, P/E low for a

tech firm, lost money on VR and ads constitute 97% of revenue so not a lot of diversification

RDDT - 30% from ATH, I think it is perceived as an AI-adjacent firm due to the contracts with OpenAI (which have low value and Im waiting for an update), very strong rev and margins, my problem is that Reddit is not as popular as Facebook/Instagram and its harder to mix ads with the text-based content

LHX - L3Harris - defence firm, revenue mix (Space & Mission Systems, Communications & Spectrum Dominance, Missile Solutions), low upside?

Of course I could invest into Google or Nvidia, but I am open to slightly more risk, and those major firms are already overcrowded + there is a huge rotation of capital into AI/semi/memory. Sure, the market can stay irrational far longer than I can stay solvent but Im buying shares not options, and there isnt only AI industry out there. Here is the list:

CEG - ran a lot already plus worse performance in bull markets, politically sensitive and a lot of good news is already priced in, beat Q1 massively

Vistra - huge upside, but margin collapse in 2025 is concerning, more energy mix

RHM - defence firm with huge upside, free cash flow guidance came in below analyst expectations, missed guidance 3 or 4 times in a row, 42% down from ATH, I perceive as a contrarian move, produces heavy machinery while wars are now based on drones, JPM cut their targets

CSG - czech defence firm, 52% down from IPO due to a short-seller report, which they know dismissed

META - 20% from ATH, Rev/margins and other metrics look good, increased CAPEX, P/E low for a

tech firm, lost money on VR and ads constitute 97% of revenue so not a lot of diversification

RDDT - 30% from ATH, I think it is perceived as an AI-adjacent firm due to the contracts with OpenAI (which have low value and Im waiting for an update), very strong rev and margins, my problem is that Reddit is not as popular as Facebook/Instagram and its harder to mix ads with the text-based content

LHX - L3Harris - defence firm, revenue mix (Space & Mission Systems, Communications & Spectrum Dominance, Missile Solutions), low upside?

Someone wrote "CABA Groundbreaking Car-T autoimmune treatment. They are showing curative results in 4 autoimmune programs & most important they have the first & only direct Car-T manufacturing plant & LLY just bought out the whole offering they were about to run late 27 early 28 but a real deal no BS 10X+. Whoever buys this gets a patent protected Car-T platform that can be used for any autoimmune & they just started an MS program"

But I still dont understand. Is this target price or the potential for this firm so high?

Hallo,

Ich bin 20, komme aus Osteuropa und werde diesen Sommer ein Praktikum in Essen machen. Da ich neu in der Stadt bin, würde ich mich freuen, neue Leute kennenzulernen und ein soziales Umfeld aufzubauen.

Habt ihr Empfehlungen, wie man in Essen am besten Kontakte knüpfen kann? Gibt es bestimmte Veranstaltungen, Meetups,

Studenteninitiativen oder vielleicht auch Partys, die sich gut dafür eignen?

Außerdem interessiere ich mich besonders für Kino, Kunst und Arthouse-Filme, falls es in diese Richtung etwas gibt.

Danke euch im Voraus für jeden Tipp