r/investing

Source: https://beincrypto.com/spacex-openai-anthropic-ipo-wave/

SpaceX ($1.75T), OpenAI (~$1T), and Anthropic (~$380B) are all targeting listings within months of each other, a combined $3 trillion hitting public markets in a single cycle.

The structural problem: at standard 15% float, these three would need to raise $432-576 billion from public markets in one quarter. The entire US IPO market raised $469 billion across all of 2016-2025 combined.

OpenAI is projected to lose $14 billion in 2026 alone and isn't expected to break even until 2029-2030. Its own CFO has reportedly warned colleagues the company isn't ready to go public. SpaceX filed first and will absorb the most liquidity whoever follows faces less capital and more scrutiny. The real question isn't whether these are great companies. It's whether retail investors are getting a fair entry price or serving as exit liquidity for VCs and early backers.

Was thinking about this after the rough start to the year.

Between AI spending concerns and the Middle East tensions (especially the oil shock from the Strait of Hormuz situation), it felt like the market had every reason to keep dropping. But it hasn’t… at least not as much as you’d expect.

What’s interesting to me is how quickly stocks bounce on even slightly positive headlines. Feels like the market wants to go higher.

A couple things I’ve been thinking about:

- S&P is still ~6% off highs, so not a full correction

- Not many stocks are truly “oversold” yet

- Historically, markets tend to recover pretty well after geopolitical events

It kind of reminds me of when you start noticing patterns in a baseball game, start understanding the signs of what the pitcher is going to throw, like once you see it, you can’t unsee it and you start hitting out of the park.

Curious what others think:
Are we setting up for another leg up this year?
Or is this just a temporary bounce before more downside?

I imagine when a company goes IPO and is absorbed into the CRSP US Total Market Indexto keep the allocation tracking the index they have to sell some stocks and buy the new stock to rebalance. This is fine when an IPO hits and the company is valued at around 30 billion or whatever, since the total impact is pretty small.

What happens when a massive company gets absorbed? Would this potentially cause a large re-balance?

I legitimately do not know, which is why I am asking.

Asking Gemini this results it talking about "IPO in Kind Transfer", which either I don't understand or doesn't apply here? My understanding is that to re-balance with the same amount of cash they either have to only buy the new stock with incoming funds?

I remember Target Date funds had to sell stocks and buy bonds to maintain allocations, which caused people that held TDFs in taxable accounts to suffer some unexpected taxation.

Been looking more into smaller names recently, especially biotech and space.

After hearing a lot of skepticism around a potential SpaceX IPO, I started digging into some of the other space companies like RKLB and ASTS.

Seems like that whole sector is starting to get more attention lately.

Curious if others have noticed the same or are following anything in that space.

Gold fell toward $4,600 on Monday, extending losses after Trump warned Iran of possible strikes if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened. Despite rising geopolitical tensions, gold is down about 12% since the conflict began, pressured by higher inflation expectations, potential rate hikes, and investor liquidations.

Hey guys, I 25(f) have a fidelity account and want to start seriously long term investing. I have done it a lil on Robinhood and have seen funny lil dividends like 1 cent come in lol. I’m not in it for that I just want a separate account front my work 401k for retirement.

I have you guys recommend $VOO $QQQ & $SPY

Should I just stick to these? What do you guys think?

I am a 22-year-old commercial airline pilot living in the UK with an annual income between £60,000 and £70,000. I currently have no debt and live with my parents, which allows me to keep my monthly outgoings very low. Between my car expenses, food, phone bill, and gym membership, I spend only about £500 a month.

Because of my low cost of living, I am able to save and invest approximately £46,000 per year. I have already maxed out my annual ISA allowance by investing in the S&P 500. I am hesitant to contribute to a workplace pension because I plan on retiring early and worry about the accessibility of those funds.

I am looking for advice on what to do with the remaining £26,000 of my annual savings. Should I put it into a general investment account and simply accept the capital gains tax, or are there better alternatives? My primary goal is to be able to purchase my own home within the next few years.

Cramer hit Oklo twice this year already:

• “Oklo is not a commercial enterprise.” (Jan 2026)
• “Very little prospects for making any money any time in the future.” (Apr 2026)

So I went back and looked at what Oklo actually did in Q1, and honestly the contrast is kind of wild.

Here’s the rundown, not in corporate‑speak, just straight:

Jan 9 – Meta signs a 1.2 GW power purchase + prepayment deal.
Biggest private nuclear deal ever.

Early Feb – Oklo and Centrus link up on HALEU + fuel cycle.
This basically solves their biggest bottleneck.

Early March – NRC finalizes Part 53.
This is the modern licensing path Oklo needed.

Mar 17 – A whole cluster of federal stuff hits at once:
• DOE signs off on the Groves isotope test
• Groves reactor moves forward in the DOE pilot program
• NRC gives them an isotope materials license
• DOE also signs off on the Aurora safety design at INL

Mar 25 – CEO Jacob DeWitte gets appointed to PCAST.
That’s a pretty big signal of federal visibility.

Mar 30 – Bykalla expands their partnership.
More engineers, more capital, faster development.

So yeah… that’s all Q1.

Reverse Cramer?

57M in US. Planning to retire overseas and live off cash inheritance for 5-8 years while doing Roth conversions.

I know the safe move would be to keep cash in HYSA or TIPS, but would it make sense to invest a portion of that cash in something with a slightly higher return?

What are the available strategies for short-term investing? Plan to hold off on claiming SS until cash runs out so that I can maximize Roth conversions.

Complete beginner to investing

I’m unemployed. I should be able to deposit £500 today and deposit £50 a month

19 years old, in it for the long game.

What do I invest in? Low risk, steady growth over time.

I start university this year.

I just want to grow my wealth. My family got robbed and we lost a lot of money, I need to help make some back

I’ve noticed my automated investments trigger at different times, seemingly randomly but they’re always at ~10:30 am or ~1:30 pm EST. How does it work? I feel like they just wait for the worst time to trigger and are just waiting for me to get rugpulled by the market. lol

Something interesting happening in the insurance space right now.

On paper, Q4 wasn’t bad. The sector beat revenue estimates by about ~2.9%, and some companies like HCI even posted 50%+ growth.

But despite that, stocks in the group are down ~6–7% on average since earnings.

Feels like a classic disconnect.

My guess is the market is focusing more on forward risks:
higher catastrophe losses,
rising claims costs,
and long-term pressure from climate trends.

Insurance is a weird sector. When conditions are good (rate increases, strong underwriting), margins can expand fast. But when things turn, they turn hard.

From an investing angle, this could be early warning. From a trading angle, it could also be a setup if sentiment gets too negative relative to actual results.

Kind of reminds me that sometimes sectors don’t move on earnings, they move on expectations.

Anyone here actively trading or investing in insurance names, or is this a space most people just ignore?

Not financial advice.

I'm not asking this from a political or moral angle, but from a practical one.

As ordinary citizens, we obviously have no influence over what the US, Israel, or Iran decide to do. But history shows that geopolitical conflicts often lead to somewhat predictable market effects: oil and gas volatility, shipping disruptions, defense spending, inflation pressure, moves in gold, and changes in risk sentiment.

So my question is: how should a normal retail investor think about positioning around this kind of conflict?

Not looking for “get rich quick” fantasies. I’m more interested in how experienced investors or people working in banking, macro, energy, or risk management think about it.

What asset classes or sectors usually react first?

What are the most obvious second-order effects people underestimate?

How do big institutions typically look at this kind of situation?

Is there a smart way to hedge, rather than just gamble on headlines?

Curious how people here would approach it in a rational way.

Hello everyone,

I have some cash currently in Vanguard Treasury Money Market. Just saw Vanguard offer of cash plus account at APY 3.35%. Does the cash plus account give better overall yield than Vanguard Treasury Money Market (VUSXX)? No fees for the cash plus account. Thank you.

DD & Stock Analysis on $DVLT After Today's Big PR Drop!

Alright team, time for some serious due diligence on Datavault AI following this exciting announcement. CEO Nathaniel T. Bradley is set to deliver flagship keynotes at CONV3RGENCE London on April 22 at the Mansion House, and at AssetRush x Zurich 2026 on May 21 as the main strategic partner with opening speech. This is building perfectly on his presentation at XRP Tokyo tomorrow, where he'll highlight their patented Information Data Exchange, DataValue, DataScore, and Data Vault Bank AI Agent tech for RWA tokenization on the XRP Ledger.

Diving into the stock analysis, this European expansion is a massive catalyst. Datavault AI is leading the charge in AI-driven data valuation, monetization, and turning real-world assets like strategic minerals, precious metals, real estate, and even name image likeness into verifiable digital twins with production-linked revenue. Bradley's quote sums it up: Europe is asset rich and ready for the quantum leap into RWA innovation, moving away from perpetual debt models to Web 3.0 as the new economic engine.

With their Q4 and full year 2025 showing first GAAP profit and revenue up 1362 percent year over year, targeting 200 million in 2026, these keynotes are launchpads for new partnerships, capital, and growth. The proprietary smart-contract infrastructure is redefining tokenized assets as 24/7 globally accessible digital securities, cyber secure and transparent.

As an investor, this de-risks the story significantly. The company is accelerating global leadership across Asia, North America, and now Europe. Analyst consensus is Strong Buy with PT at 3 dollars, and given the volatility in the 0.72 area with upside to previous highs, this news flow could drive substantial revaluation. I'm holding long term because the execution is real and the market for RWA is just getting started. $DVLT is one to watch closely!

Complete beginner to investing

I’m unemployed. I should be able to deposit £500 today and deposit £50 a month

19 years old, in it for the long game.

What do I invest in? Low risk, steady growth over time.

I start university this year.

I just want to grow my wealth. My family got robbed and we lost a lot of money, I need to help make some back

https://www.etfstream.com/articles/europe-s-first-pure-play-drones-etf-unveiled-by-hanetf

HANetf has extended its thematic ETF line-up with the launch of a strategy capturing drones and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology.

The Drone UCITS ETF (DRON) is listed on Borsa Italiana and Deutsche Borse, with a listing on the London Stock Exchange to follow. It has a a total expense ratio (TER) of 0.69%.

DRON tracks the VettaFi Drone UCITS index which casts a global net for stocks involved in drones and UAV technology.

Companies must derive at least 20% of revenues from drones or related technologies, or operate a dedicated UAV research programme.

Companies are divided into “pure-play” firms, generating at least 50% of revenue from drones, and “diversified” companies with smaller exposure.

Pure-play stocks account for 80% of the index, while diversified companies make up the remaining 20% and are capped at 5% each.

DRON’s top three holdings are Red Cat (24.1%), Ondas Inc. (16.7%) and Aerovironment (12.3%).

US drone technology company Red Cat and Florida-based autonomous drone systems provider Ondas Inc. are up 185.6% and 1,074.2%, respectively, over the last year. Aerovironment is up 61.6% over the same period.

Other less pure-play names appear in the basket, such as Boeing (1.2%) Lockheed Martin (0.98%), BAE Systems (0.53%) and Leonardo (0.51%).

Tom Bailey, head of research at HANetf, said global defence spending is shifting to reflect the growing dominance of drones on battlefields in Ukraine.

“The United States has launched a $1bn ‘Drone Dominance’ initiative, Germany plans to field more than 8,000 unmanned systems by 2029, and the UK has committed an additional £2bn to drone capabilities," Bailey said.

He also cited government use of drones for disaster relief, border security and infrastructure monitoring and commercial drone use as other key structural drivers.

Peter Diel, head of index product for Europe at VettaFi, added: "Autonomous systems deliver a real asymmetric advantage across a multitude of sectors, driving increased demand in areas ranging from supply chain optimization, entertainment and consumer products to fast-growing defense and security applications."

Other recent launches from the white-label ETF issuer include the Future of Defence Screened UCITS ETF (NATE), an ESG iteration of its $3bn global defence

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Following up on my theme tracker post from last week. A few people asked me to go deeper on specific themes rather than just the leaderboard view, so here's the one I think is most worth unpacking.

Gold & Precious Metals has the best trailing 12-month return of all 15 themes I track. But the headline number actually undersells how interesting the internal structure is.

The basket-level numbers (equal-weight, 25 stocks)

Metric	Value
Trailing 12-month return	+152.9% (best of all 15 themes)
YTD 2026	+14.3% vs SPY at -3.6%
Breadth	23/25 stocks beating SPY (92%)
Beta	0.86

The breadth number is the one that should grab your attention. When 92% of names in a basket are simultaneously beating the broad market, you're not looking at 2 or 3 stocks carrying a narrative. That's a macro regime signal. The market is pricing something real here, not just chasing momentum in a handful of large caps.

The value chain split

This is the part I haven't seen in many coverages. Gold equities aren't one thing. There are five distinct layers inside this theme, and they've had very different outcomes even within the same bull run.

1. Royalty and Streaming Companies (WPM, FNV, RGLD, OR)

These are the capital-light businesses that finance mine development in exchange for a fixed percentage of production. They don't operate mines. They don't pay for labor, diesel, or equipment cost overruns. Gross margins run between 62% and 84%.

Ticker	YTD	Gross Margin	TTM Rev Growth
FNV	+23.6%	73.9%	+64.4%
RGLD	+18.8%	n/a	+43.9%
WPM	+15.0%	62.5%	+50.3%
OR	+14.4%	83.4%	+53.1%

The reason this layer matters so much right now is AISC inflation. When mine operators face rising costs, royalty companies feel none of it. Their revenue moves with the gold price; their cost base doesn't. In an environment where cost discipline has been uneven across operators, royalty has been the cleanest expression of the gold thesis.

2. Senior Gold Miners (NEM, AEM, AU, KGC)

Large-cap operators with diversified mine portfolios and dividend track records.

Ticker	YTD	Gross Margin	TTM Rev Growth
AEM	+22.3%	44.5%	+32.9%
AU	+18.2%	46.5%	+62.7%
NEM	+12.7%	n/a	-16.8%
KGC	+11.3%	47.5%	+37.2%

More beta to gold than royalty names, but disciplined cost structures at the top of this group. NEM surged 12% in a single week on strong results. KGC is expected to beat earnings estimates again based on current production metrics.

3. Mid-Tier and Junior Miners

This is where operating leverage to the gold price is highest, and where dispersion within the theme is widest.

Ticker	YTD	TTM Rev Growth	Note
SSRM	+46.7%	+64.5%	Strongest name in the basket
ORLA	+29.3%	+250.9%	Highest growth in the theme
IAG	+17.7%	+75.7%	26% upside to analyst target
BTG	+5.1%	+61.3%	Flagged as undervalued vs peers

The math on junior leverage is straightforward. If your AISC is $1,200 and gold moves from $2,400 to $2,700, your margin doesn't go up 12.5%, it goes up 25%. Every dollar of gold price improvement flows almost entirely to free cash flow once fixed costs are covered. That leverage works in both directions, but in a sustained bull market it's where the big moves happen.

4. Silver Miners (PAAS, HL, AG, CDE)

Silver typically lags gold in the early phase of a metals rally and outperforms as the cycle matures. We may be at that inflection.

Ticker	YTD	TTM Rev Growth	Analyst Upside
AG	+36.0%	+84.1%	+14%
PAAS	+9.3%	+29.0%	+23%
HL	+1.6%	+53.0%	+26%

5. The outlier worth noting

HMY (Harmony Gold) is at -17.7% YTD. The only name in the basket that's negative and the only one materially underperforming SPY. Higher operating costs, South African jurisdiction risk, weaker earnings trajectory. It's the clearest illustration of why you can't just buy the theme label. The 2 names dragging on a 92% breadth basket tell you exactly what the market is penalizing: high AISC and geopolitical jurisdiction exposure.

Three structural drivers behind the run

1. The AISC math has gotten very favorable for low-cost producers

A miner producing at $1,200 AISC at $2,400 gold earns a 50% margin on the spread. At $2,700 gold that margin expands significantly. Free cash flow generation across the basket is running well ahead of 2024 for the disciplined operators.

2. The demand structure has changed

This isn't an ETF-flow driven rally. Central bank gold purchases have been running at multi-decade highs as reserve managers diversify away from US Treasuries. That's a structural bid. It doesn't disappear when retail sentiment shifts.

3. Revenue growth is real, not just multiple expansion

Equal-weight average TTM revenue growth across the 25-stock basket is +48.8%. FNV at +64.4%, SSRM at +64.5%, WPM at +50.3%, AU at +62.7%. These are operating businesses with real top-line growth, not narrative stocks waiting for fundamentals to catch up.

How to think about position construction

If you want...	Layer	Names	Trade-off
Gold thesis, minimal volatility	Royalty	WPM, FNV, RGLD	Expensive. FNV at 26.8x P/S, WPM at 47.9x
Operating leverage, manageable risk	Senior miners	AEM, KGC, AU	More beta, but cost-disciplined
Maximum upside	Mid-tier / juniors	SSRM, ORLA	Jurisdiction and AISC risk is real
Contrarian setup	Laggard	BTG	+5.1% YTD vs basket +14.3%, analysts at +32% to target

What the consensus currently looks like

80% of the 25 stocks carry a Buy or Strong Buy rating. Median analyst target upside from current prices is +19%. That's after a +152.9% trailing 12-month run. The street isn't treating this as a played-out trade.

The near-term risk is a meaningful gold price reversal if risk appetite returns and the dollar strengthens. The company-specific risk is always AISC inflation eating margins faster than gold prices rise. HMY is the live example of what that looks like when it goes wrong.

But at 92% breadth, 0.86 beta, +48.8% average revenue growth, and a macro backdrop where dollar skepticism and central bank diversification are running simultaneously, the data doesn't read like a momentum trade on borrowed time.

Not financial advice. Do your own research.

Here's the properly formatted version:

Gold is up +152.9% over the trailing year. The value chain split inside the theme is where the real story is.

Following up on my theme tracker post from last week. A few people asked me to go deeper on specific themes rather than just the leaderboard view, so here's the one I think is most worth unpacking.

Gold & Precious Metals has the best trailing 12-month return of all 15 themes I track. But the headline number actually undersells how interesting the internal structure is.

The basket-level numbers (equal-weight, 25 stocks)

Metric	Value
Trailing 12-month return	+152.9% (best of all 15 themes)
YTD 2026	+14.3% vs SPY at -4%
Breadth	23/25 stocks beating SPY (92%)
Beta	0.86

The breadth number is the one that should grab your attention. When 92% of names in a basket are simultaneously beating the broad market, you're not looking at 2 or 3 stocks carrying a narrative. That's a macro regime signal. The market is pricing something real here, not just chasing momentum in a handful of large caps.

The value chain split

This is the part most coverage misses. Gold equities aren't one thing. There are five distinct layers inside this theme, and they've had very different outcomes even within the same bull run.

1. Royalty and Streaming Companies (WPM, FNV, RGLD, OR)

These are the capital-light businesses that finance mine development in exchange for a fixed percentage of production. They don't operate mines. They don't pay for labor, diesel, or equipment cost overruns. Gross margins run between 62% and 84%.

Ticker	YTD	Gross Margin	TTM Rev Growth
FNV	+23.6%	73.9%	+64.4%
RGLD	+18.8%	n/a	+43.9%
WPM	+15.0%	62.5%	+50.3%
OR	+14.4%	83.4%	+53.1%

The reason this layer matters so much right now is AISC inflation. When mine operators face rising costs, royalty companies feel none of it. Their revenue moves with the gold price; their cost base doesn't. In an environment where cost discipline has been uneven across operators, royalty has been the cleanest expression of the gold thesis.

2. Senior Gold Miners (NEM, AEM, AU, KGC)

Large-cap operators with diversified mine portfolios and dividend track records.

Ticker	YTD	Gross Margin	TTM Rev Growth
AEM	+22.3%	44.5%	+32.9%
AU	+18.2%	46.5%	+62.7%
NEM	+12.7%	n/a	-16.8%
KGC	+11.3%	47.5%	+37.2%

More beta to gold than royalty names, but disciplined cost structures at the top of this group. NEM surged 12% in a single week on strong results. KGC is expected to beat earnings estimates again based on current production metrics.

3. Mid-Tier and Junior Miners

This is where operating leverage to the gold price is highest, and where dispersion within the theme is widest.

Ticker	YTD	TTM Rev Growth	Note
SSRM	+46.7%	+64.5%	Strongest name in the basket
ORLA	+29.3%	+250.9%	Highest growth in the theme
IAG	+17.7%	+75.7%	26% upside to analyst target
BTG	+5.1%	+61.3%	Flagged as undervalued vs peers

The math on junior leverage is straightforward. If your AISC is $1,200 and gold moves from $2,400 to $2,700, your margin doesn't go up 12.5%, it goes up 25%. Every dollar of gold price improvement flows almost entirely to free cash flow once fixed costs are covered. That leverage works in both directions, but in a sustained bull market it's where the big moves happen.

4. Silver Miners (PAAS, HL, AG, CDE)

Silver typically lags gold in the early phase of a metals rally and outperforms as the cycle matures. We may be at that inflection.

Ticker	YTD	TTM Rev Growth	Analyst Upside
AG	+36.0%	+84.1%	+14%
PAAS	+9.3%	+29.0%	+23%
HL	+1.6%	+53.0%	+26%

5. The outlier worth noting

HMY (Harmony Gold) is at -17.7% YTD. The only name in the basket that's negative and the only one materially underperforming SPY. Higher operating costs, South African jurisdiction risk, weaker earnings trajectory. It's the clearest illustration of why you can't just buy the theme label. The 2 names dragging on a 92% breadth basket tell you exactly what the market is penalizing: high AISC and geopolitical jurisdiction exposure.

Three structural drivers behind the run

1. The AISC math has gotten very favorable for low-cost producers

A miner producing at $1,200 AISC at $2,400 gold earns a 50% margin on the spread. At $2,700 gold that margin expands significantly. Free cash flow generation across the basket is running well ahead of 2024 for the disciplined operators.

2. The demand structure has changed

This isn't an ETF-flow driven rally. Central bank gold purchases have been running at multi-decade highs as reserve managers diversify away from US Treasuries. That's a structural bid. It doesn't disappear when retail sentiment shifts.

3. Revenue growth is real, not just multiple expansion

Equal-weight average TTM revenue growth across the 25-stock basket is +48.8%. FNV at +64.4%, SSRM at +64.5%, WPM at +50.3%, AU at +62.7%. These are operating businesses with real top-line growth, not narrative stocks waiting for fundamentals to catch up.

How to think about position construction

If you want...	Layer	Names	Trade-off
Gold thesis, minimal volatility	Royalty	WPM, FNV, RGLD	Expensive. FNV at 26.8x P/S, WPM at 47.9x
Operating leverage, manageable risk	Senior miners	AEM, KGC, AU	More beta, but cost-disciplined
Maximum upside	Mid-tier / juniors	SSRM, ORLA	Jurisdiction and AISC risk is real
Contrarian setup	Laggard	BTG	+5.1% YTD vs basket +14.3%, analysts at +32% to target

What the consensus currently looks like

80% of the 25 stocks carry a Buy or Strong Buy rating. Median analyst target upside from current prices is +19%. That's after a +152.9% trailing 12-month run. The street isn't treating this as a played-out trade.

The near-term risk is a meaningful gold price reversal if risk appetite returns and the dollar strengthens. The company-specific risk is always AISC inflation eating margins faster than gold prices rise. HMY is the live example of what that looks like when it goes wrong.

But at 92% breadth, 0.86 beta, +48.8% average revenue growth, and a macro backdrop where dollar skepticism and central bank diversification are running simultaneously, the data doesn't read like a momentum trade on borrowed time.

Not financial advice. Do your own research.