u/Pterosauras

I just wanted to say that I don't think it is AI that's causing the layoffs. At best it's probably just a good excuse for justifying them.

Firstly, I believe most of the hiring contraction and layoffs is due to the interest rates rising. In the 2010s, tech companies basically operated in a near-zero interest rate environment. Money was cheap and so companies were able to hire aggressively and expanded, overhired and funded experimental projects such as AmazonGo which would never have existed in a high interest rate environment. Companies were trying to hire all the talent they can before they get snatched by another company.

AI is getting better (Claude Opus, etc) but it is not declining proportionally

After interest rates rose, such projects started shutting down, layoffs started and hiring decreased. That being said, the level of hiring has not increased proportionally to the 'advancement' of AI. When the layoffs started happening, AI-assisted coding was very minimal. Now it's very expansive and intelligent, but what we see is that there has actually been a slight uptick in hiring. Overall, the demand for software engineers is actually increasing slowly year over year. The supply is simply just too high for the current economic environment (which will likely be permanent as the 2010s interest rate environment was a historical anomaly)

Why I think AI is not the cause of software engineer layoffs is

1. No-Code Development solutions already existed, especially for web development. We had services such as WordPress and Shopify and other drag and drop tools. Neither of these services had a relevant impact on hiring and in fact they were significantly more convenient than the AI coding tools we have today. Coding an actual professional website with AI for a non-experienced is a very confusing experience, most people do not know systems engineering, distributed systems, trade-offs between database types, API rate limits, authentication, etc.

AI assisted coding sits in an awkward middle, where it's not as convenient to use as No-code, but not as feature-rich/professional as having a website coded and maintained by a professional team.

2. While productivity has increased, I believe that as a tool/technology becomes easier to use, the demand for it increases. I think AI tools will act as a gateway drug for many businesses. People will be inclined to try and build their own services using these tools, but after a certain point, complexity will increase, you need someone who understands security, how to use Kubernetes and cloud infrastructure tools, you need someone who understands how to handle 10,000 concurrent users or how to pass an SOC2 audit. People simply do not have time to be a jack of all trades even if it can be learned on YouTube in a few weeks.

3. The layoffs seem to be sector specific. You would expect layoffs across all industries, like defense, healthcare, aerospace, energy and government services. However, the cuts were mostly specific to tech companies specifically.

I am not denying that hiring is messed up rn and the layoffs are wild, but it is not due to AI imo. Also a large chunk of the layoffs are not necessarily developers, it's also middle-management, marketing teams, etc who also make up a very large slice of the pie

That being said, some of it is technically 'due to AI' because some companies need to show a good balance sheet since they are investing heavily in data centers, what I specifically mean is layoffs due to AI specifically doing the job of the software engineer

I have had selective mutism since around age 5. It wasn't really ever diagnosed. I didn't have many friends when I was younger as my parents moved to another country when I was very young. I basically just got hooked up on the laptop for basically all of entertainment. My parents didn't have any friends and mostly just watched TV. When they told me to get off the laptop I basically just went to watch TV with them.

Initially, I was always selectively mute around adults. At school, if a teacher was with us, I wouldn't take to my peers. When I got older during puberty, I stopped talking to my peers as well and then eventually my own parents too. I'm not really upset with my parents, my childhood was alright, but they did kind of just let me rot on the computer all day and after school. My parents didn't really know what other kids did because they had no reference beside myself (as I had no friends I talked about around them), so they thought sitting on the computer all day was normal for my age. In my final year of school I basically just hid myself in the toilet to eat lunch/recess.

Unfortunately, the issue is that it still persists. In fact, it has gotten worse and I am 20 years old. I can't talk to my parents besides nodding or speaking bare minimum one worded answers.

My dad (who I have the most SM towards) had a stroke 2 yrs ago. When he had his stroke, it was so awkward, I couldn't even ask my mom (who was exhausted) if she was okay or if my dad was okay at hospital. This got really bad as my parents effectively think I am now a monster. It's very hard to disprove this bcoz one I can't talk for jack sh** and I couldn't really find a logical reason to prove my innocence bcoz it seems likely I'm upholding my silly little emotions over my dad's life-changing stroke where he literally ALMOST DIED. It got so bad my parents wanted to kick me out of the house once and honestly I was ready to go, at the time, because I honestly feel fucking terrible and thought I deserved it.

To prove I'm not a monster, I try to self-sabotage myself by ruining my grades on purpose, etc or to like eat less or look devastated to show I care. The issue is, I always have a poker face, so I look like I'm an absolute selfish asshole who just cares about his own work and success. My mother does the dishes and I can't even help her. I literally cannot I genuinely mean this because I'm also partly scared of my dad for some reason always (he's kind of quick to judge). My dad is permanently disabled and I feel so desensitised.

What's worse is that I had to move back to my country of origin because my grandparents were getting sick. In front of all my relatives, I could not even go to my grandfather and ask if he was okay in hospital. I just sat there like an absolute selfish piece of sh** who has an attitude and thinks he's immortal. I had to stare at the ground to look sad.

I feel stuck in life. I sometimes wish to just run away and abandon all connections and live alone, but it seems scary, and the truth is I am also worried about my parents. I hate my life.

Sorry if some of this story doesn't make sense, but I feel completely lost. Btw my parents are not bad people, even I couldn't figure out I had SM until very recently and it is a rare disorder and challenging to spot. I'm just in a spot where my relatives think I'm an asshole, my parents misunderstand me. I'm stuck in a cycle of anger/sadness with no way out.

from a non go8 university, distinction grades, 1-2 projects mostly backend