u/No_Conversation_9424

Is TSM the ultimate long-term winner?

TSM is the company in the AI devleopmental layer with the biggest bottle neck, biggest moat being the monopoly, and undervalued given its location in Taiwan

Chip and memory sectors are absolutely booming, and it can only be producted by TSM. Doesn't matter whether AMD or NVDA wins, nor whether MU or SK Hynix or Samsung wings.

TSM is now massively expanding its infrastructure in Arizona to get around geopolitical barriers.

Is TSM the ultimate winner in the AI sector that is still UNDERVALUED?

reddit.com
u/No_Conversation_9424 — 6 days ago
▲ 203 r/stockstobuytoday+4 crossposts

Let's dissect MU stock risks

There has been explosive number of posts, comments, coverage, and articles on the memory sector. Using real numbers and sources, I want to dissect and chime in on trending topics including:

  1. Capex concern
  2. cyclical nature of semi sectors
  3. AI bubble

1) CAPEX concern- with brief recap on today's CISCO earning report

The loudest argument against MU right now is the massive capex. People see 750+billion being poured into AI arms race and are rightfully concerned that Micron is blindly pumping out chips that will eventually oversupply the market while hyperscalers dial back. But let's look at the most recent data

Cisco Q3 2026 earnings report (today May 13) just posted a blowout revenue beat of $15.8 billion, and their stock surged double digits. What stood out was their forward guidance. They’ve seen a 25% surge in networking orders. They then explicitly cited higher memory prices as a primary cause for margin contraction. Memory sectors aren't only sold out into 2027, they are sold out at an premium price per Cisco’s report. As well, I will get more into this in 2), but they are no longer making quarterly contracts. They are doing long-term contracts that also question the cyclical nature of semi sectors.

Institutions are re-pricing 12 months MU targets at $1000~2000. They are continually adjusting the price targets as they have rapidly become a chokehold to the entire data center building process. In the article below, hedge funds believe the true pricing of the MU will likely be reached mid of 2027.

interesting article if interested in samsung or sk: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-05-13/samsung-sk-hynix-show-stubborn-korea-discount-persists-in-ai-age

2) Cyclical nature of semis

"It’s a cyclical stock, Sell at the peak!" I see this comment every 10 minutes. And yes, historically, memory was a commodity like oil or wheat. But the 2026 version of Micron has undergone a fundamental "de-commoditization."

In previous cycles, MU was at the mercy of the "Consumer Duo": Smartphones and PCs. When people stopped buying iPhones, Micron bled. Today, the demand has shifted to Data Center and Enterprise AI. These aren't impulsive consumer purchases; these are multi-year, multi-billion-dollar infrastructure projects. Contracts are years long. For the first time, HBM4 supply is being locked in 24 months in advance.

The complexity of HBM4 has also effectively "dampened" the cycle. In the old days, a company could flip a switch and flood the market with DDR3. Today, if you want to increase HBM4 production, you need 18 months of lead time and a prayer that your TSV packaging doesn't fail. This "complexity scarcity" means we aren't going to see those massive, overnight price crashes that used to define the sector.

Furthermore, look at the long-term agreements. For the first time in history, MU has locked in major Tier-1 customers into multi-year contracts for HBM supply through the end of 2027. We are moving toward a "Subscription-lite" model for hardware. When you have a sold-out order book for the next 18 months, the "cyclical" label starts to fade away. The floor for earnings is now significantly higher than it was in 2018 or 2022. We’re not looking at a boom-bust; we’re looking at a "Stair-Step" growth model where each trough is higher than the previous peak.

3) Bubble

If I hear one more person compare 2026 to 1999, I’m going to lose it. Let’s be clear: a bubble is when speculation outpaces utility. In the Dot-Com era, companies were getting billion-dollar valuations just for having a ".com" suffix, despite having negative cash flow and business models that were basically "vibes and prayers."

Today, the utility of AI isn't a "maybe", it’s being proven in real-time through Inference. We’ve officially moved past the "Training" phase where everyone was just buying chips to build models. We are now in the Inference Era, where those models are actually working. Every time a customer service agent is replaced by an AI agent, or a developer uses an AI-pairing tool to write 40% more code, that is an inference event.

The biggest differentiator from the Dot-Com bubble?

  1. Proven profitability and structural scarcity. Sold Out: As of this morning, Micron’s HBM4 capacity is sold out through the end of 2027. You can’t have a speculative bubble in a product that has 100% committed demand from the world’s largest companies (NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon).
    2)Real Margins: In 1999, tech companies were bleeding cash. In 2026, Micron is reporting gross margins north of 50%. This isn't "hope"; it’s high-margin, high-moat manufacturing.
    3)Long-Term Agreements (LTAs): The re-pricing of the semiconductor industry is being driven by multi-year contracts. Hyperscalers aren't just buying spot-market chips; they are signing 2-3 year deals to ensure they don't get left behind in the HBM4 transition.
u/No_Conversation_9424 — 6 days ago
▲ 135 r/MU_Stock+3 crossposts

Thoughts on this article? "Micron Technology Stock Will Skyrocket to $2,000 in 1 Year"

While all the institutions are raising the target price of MU with re-pricing (1000-1500), new article on motley suggests that MU stock can reach 2000 by next year if supply shortage persists.

Per DRAM CEOs and executives, they can't close the supply/demand gap in the foreseeable future, and HBM are sold out into last year while companies like MU are actively seeking to expand manufacturing capacity. 2000 Seems pretty high though... Thoughts?

https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/11/prediction-micron-technology-stock-will-skyrocket/

u/No_Conversation_9424 — 7 days ago

Memory revenue expected to triple in 2026, semiconductor revenue to grow 64% in 2026

Thoughts on this?

Gartner estimates that memory revenue to increase by three folds in 2026, DRAM Prices to Increase by 125% in 2026, and Storage Crisis to Extend into 2027. Banks and hedge funds across the globe re-pricing DRAM companies.

I still don't understand those who are bearish on memory sector.

https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-04-08-gartner-forecasts-worldwide-semiconductor-revenue-to-exceed-us-dollars-one-point-3-trillion-in-2026#:~:text=STAMFORD%2C%20Conn.%2C%20April%208,Crisis%20to%20Extend%20into%202027

reddit.com
u/No_Conversation_9424 — 8 days ago

Memory revenue expected to triple in 2026, semiconductor revenue to grow 64% in 2026

Thoughts on this?

Gartner estimates that memory revenue to increase by three folds in 2026, DRAM Prices to Increase by 125% in 2026, and Storage Crisis to Extend into 2027. Banks and hedge funds across the globe re-pricing DRAM companies.

I still don't understand those who are bearish on memory sector.

https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-04-08-gartner-forecasts-worldwide-semiconductor-revenue-to-exceed-us-dollars-one-point-3-trillion-in-2026#:~:text=STAMFORD%2C%20Conn.%2C%20April%208,Crisis%20to%20Extend%20into%202027

reddit.com
u/No_Conversation_9424 — 8 days ago

Memory revenue expected to triple in 2026, semiconductor revenue to grow 64% in 2026

Thoughts on this?

Gartner estimates that memory revenue to increase by three folds in 2026, DRAM Prices to Increase by 125% in 2026, and Storage Crisis to Extend into 2027. Banks and hedge funds across the globe re-pricing DRAM companies.

I still don't understand those who are bearish on memory sector.

https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-04-08-gartner-forecasts-worldwide-semiconductor-revenue-to-exceed-us-dollars-one-point-3-trillion-in-2026#:~:text=STAMFORD%2C%20Conn.%2C%20April%208,Crisis%20to%20Extend%20into%202027

reddit.com
u/No_Conversation_9424 — 8 days ago

Thoughts on Agentic AI needing 1000xmore compute than today's AI

According to Jensen Huang (NVDA's CEO), today's AI responds to prompts. Agentic AI runs continuously, makes decisions in real time and doesn't stop between tasks. That's a categorically heavier workload, not a bigger version of the same one.

Huang's analogy: imagine the world suddenly needing 1,000 times more cars. Every road, factory, fuel supply and supply chain scales with it. That's what he's saying happens to compute infrastructure. This gives the bottlenecks a tremendous amount of leverage (e.g., memory sector)

The direction is confirmed. Every major AI lab, Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, is building toward autonomous AI that runs continuously. The magnitude is the open question.

Stocks directly in the middle of it:
$NVDA — chips power all of it. All-time high above $216 this week.
$AMD — data center up 57% last quarter. MI450 for agentic workloads shipping H2 2026.
$AMZN — AWS AI at $15B run rate. Anthropic on AWS for the long term.
$MSFT — Azure 35%+ growth. Agentic tools are the priority.
$ANET — networking scales with compute demand.

Energy: $NEE, $VST, $CEG - always-on AI needs always-on power.

Worth noting: Huang sells chips. His interest in 1,000x being real is financial as much as technical.

If this is even 10% accurate the infrastructure being built today is just the foundation. How are you thinking about positioning around the agentic AI transition?

reddit.com
u/No_Conversation_9424 — 9 days ago

It may hit 800 tomorrow

It's sitting at 776.53 up 4% from Friday night close, due to the current overnight market

Ladies and gentlemen, buckle up for possible 800 tomorrow

reddit.com
u/No_Conversation_9424 — 9 days ago

Any better stock/ETF than DRAM in the market?

Are there any ETFs or a single stock on the market that is better than DRAM, in terms of overall rating of value/outlook/performance?

For those who don't have a positive perception of DRAM, what is one stock/ETF you have that is objectively better?

reddit.com
u/No_Conversation_9424 — 9 days ago

Any better ETF than DRAM?

Are there any better ETFs or a single stock on the market that is better than DRAM, in terms of overall rating of value/outlook/performance?

For those who don't have a positive perception of DRAM, what is one stock/ETF you have that is objectively better?

reddit.com
u/No_Conversation_9424 — 9 days ago

help me understand this semiconductor risk

Everyone's talking about "is it too late", "should I buy more" of MU/DRAM/SNDK
Help me math the math. MU is roughly $750 today, and it's increased 84% last month alone, and 214% last 6 months. Even if there was a 30% crash RIGHT now, you'd be be massively up.

For example, if you bought MU for $100 last month, it would be $184 today. If it crashed by 30% right this moment, you'd be at $128.8, STILL 30% up from last month.

a) These stocks are climbing up daily with re-pricing given its new configurations and role in the AI infrastructure. You sit on it for a little bit and you'd have already mitigated the worst possible outcome of massive correction
b) 30% was also an exaggerated number given real-demand of memory, real revenues/profits, and real increase in capex.

With all this in mind, why WOULDNT you want to DCA in semiconductor sector right now? please help me math this risk/benefit assessment

reddit.com
u/No_Conversation_9424 — 11 days ago
▲ 2 r/MU_Stock+1 crossposts

help me understand this semiconductor risk

Everyone's talking about "is it too late", "should I buy more" of MU/DRAM/SNDK
Help me math the math. MU is roughly $750 today, and it's increased 84% last month alone, and 214% last 6 months. Even if there was a 30% crash RIGHT now, you'd be be massively up.

For example, if you bought MU for $100 last month, it would be $184 today. If it crashed by 30% right this moment, you'd be at $128.8, STILL 30% up from last month.

a) These stocks are climbing up daily with re-pricing given its new configurations and role in the AI infrastructure. You sit on it for a little bit and you'd have already mitigated the worst possible outcome of massive correction
b) 30% was also an exaggerated number given real-demand of memory, real revenues/profits, and real increase in capex.

With all this in mind, why WOULDNT you want to DCA in semiconductor sector right now? please help me math this risk/benefit assessment

reddit.com
u/Ahphelios — 10 days ago

**Future of chips/memory (As of May 8th, 2026)

Writing this on May 8th. People have gotten it wrong, analysts have gotten valuation wrong. The chip/memory sector is going to be larger than what is currently estimated

Companies are pre-ordering like there's no tomorrow. I mean, just look at apple-intel agreement publicized today.

Data center DRAM is also booming. AI servers need 10-12x more RAM than traditional servers. When hyperscalers deploy AI infrastructure, they're not just buying GPUs they're rebuilding entire data centers with massive memory configurations. That's a multi-year capex cycle, not a one-time thing. We're literally in year 1 or 2 of this buildout.

On top of that, manufacturing HBM at scale is genuinely hard. It takes years to build new capacity. Meanwhile, demand from AI is accelerating faster than most people predicted. We're not just talking about inference servers either, training infrastructure demands are still ramping. EACH DURATION OF CYCLE IN CHIP SECTOR IS EITHER SIGNIFICANTLY PROLONGED OR NO LONGER WILL BE EXISTING

MU will be 1000+ company by mid 2027

Mark my words

reddit.com
u/No_Conversation_9424 — 12 days ago

I've been intermittently checking brk to see if there's any news. Per stock price, as always, y'all collectively broke.

Genuine question- what is motivating you to stay poor and continue to invest in brk?

reddit.com
u/No_Conversation_9424 — 12 days ago

It just feels like AI is here to stay. Thoughts on AI oriented ETFs like SMH, AIPO, AIS, QQQ for long term hold? I started investing last week and is one click away from dumping my life saving on these

reddit.com
u/No_Conversation_9424 — 19 days ago