u/HackleMMA

My Pick

I have to go with JDM, I know that the market does not agree, but I think there are a few reasons why. Prates has real KO power, and the reach advantage is tangible, but I believe that JDM has the better hands and the capacity to put up a win. Although historically JDM has fought fighters with lower striking differentials JDM has put up amazing performances. JDM is in the 93rd percentile of fighters in his weight class for Sig Strikes Landed Per Min and much better striking defense where he is in the 89th percentile. JDM has a great chin based on his KD rate and in terms of cardio he has consistent strikes landed into late rounds. Overall, I think he is technically a better fighter.

Tale of the Tape

My Model

My model gave the edge to JDM with a predicted win value of 59%, not a crazy lock by any means, but the striking differential (1.45 strikes landed vs absorbed) with Prates carrying about a 0.8. JDM tends to fight longer (I acknowledge the fact that Prates tends to end fights early) and the slight wrestling edge JDM has puts him ahead.

Model Prediction

The Numbers

Fighter Radar

We can see pretty similar profiles between these two fighters. The numbers are close but there are some significant differences when we compare. Sig Strikes per minute gives JDM a clear advantage with a 60/40 advantage on Prates with a SGPM of 5.57 vs. Prates 3.77. To get the full picture we really need to look at Sig Absorbed per min as well and JDM again carries the advantage although slightly a 54/46 advantage with a 3.84 SAM and Prates at a 4.53. The last piece to the picture is accuracy where Prates carries the slight advantage at a 52/48 advantage where he is at 55% accuracy and Maddalena carrying a 51%.

Sig Strikes Landed Per Round & Strike Accuracy

Sig Strikes Landed / Min Percentile

Strike Accuracy Percentile

Strike Defense Percentile

JDM vs Prates Damage Ratio

JDM vs Prates Sub Threat

Let me know what you guys think!