r/UFCLabs

▲ 39 r/UFCLabs+1 crossposts

Carlos "The Nightmare" Prates finishes "JDM" Jack Della Maddalena

r/MMALabs

u/iLeftyPunk — 4 hours ago

▲ 9 r/UFCLabs+1 crossposts

NO LONGER A PROSPECT...HE'S A CONTENDER 🫡

Quillan Salkilld earns the biggest win of his career with a R1 knockout!

u/iLeftyPunk — 5 hours ago

🔥 Hot ▲ 53 r/UFCLabs+1 crossposts

Curtis Blaydes vs Josh Hokit is your April FOTM!

One of the greatest heavyweight fights of all time thats what they say who agrees ?

u/iLeftyPunk — 2 days ago

▲ 9 r/UFCLabs+1 crossposts

[Official Thread] UFC Perth Fight Card!

🇦🇺 🇦🇺 🇦🇺

u/iLeftyPunk — 14 hours ago

▲ 46 r/UFCLabs+1 crossposts

Locked in for Saturday 🔒 🇦🇺 Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates 🇧🇷

[ UFC Perth | May 2 at 7amET | Check local broadcast listings ]

r/UFCLabs | r/ParamountUFC | r/MetaAPEX

u/iLeftyPunk — 2 days ago

▲ 2 r/UFCLabs

WE CAN’T WAIT 😮‍💨

May and June are bringing the heat with crazy fights!

u/iLeftyPunk — 14 hours ago

▲ 32 r/UFCLabs+1 crossposts

JDM vs Prates - who are you betting on?

JDM used to just blitz folks in round 1. Now his fights go way longer and he's landing way less per min (dropped from 14 to 5.33). But he also cut the damage he takes in half, from 8.38 down to 3.7

Plus he goes to the body now instead of just hunting for head

Prates did something similar with defense, went from absorbing 7.51 strikes a min to 4.61.

But he went the opposite direction on offense. He became a head hunter. His head strike accuracy tripled to 43%. Plus his takedown defense is at 82%

So JDM wants a long fight where he works the body and drains you. Prates wants to keep it standing and knock your head off

Probably comes down to whether Prates can land the big head shot before JDM's body work takes over

u/FightSignal — 3 days ago

▲ 7 r/UFCLabs+2 crossposts

JDM Vs. Prates Prediction

My Pick

I have to go with JDM, I know that the market does not agree, but I think there are a few reasons why. Prates has real KO power, and the reach advantage is tangible, but I believe that JDM has the better hands and the capacity to put up a win. Although historically JDM has fought fighters with lower striking differentials JDM has put up amazing performances. JDM is in the 93rd percentile of fighters in his weight class for Sig Strikes Landed Per Min and much better striking defense where he is in the 89th percentile. JDM has a great chin based on his KD rate and in terms of cardio he has consistent strikes landed into late rounds. Overall, I think he is technically a better fighter.

Tale of the Tape

My Model

My model gave the edge to JDM with a predicted win value of 59%, not a crazy lock by any means, but the striking differential (1.45 strikes landed vs absorbed) with Prates carrying about a 0.8. JDM tends to fight longer (I acknowledge the fact that Prates tends to end fights early) and the slight wrestling edge JDM has puts him ahead.

Model Prediction

The Numbers

Fighter Radar

We can see pretty similar profiles between these two fighters. The numbers are close but there are some significant differences when we compare. Sig Strikes per minute gives JDM a clear advantage with a 60/40 advantage on Prates with a SGPM of 5.57 vs. Prates 3.77. To get the full picture we really need to look at Sig Absorbed per min as well and JDM again carries the advantage although slightly a 54/46 advantage with a 3.84 SAM and Prates at a 4.53. The last piece to the picture is accuracy where Prates carries the slight advantage at a 52/48 advantage where he is at 55% accuracy and Maddalena carrying a 51%.

Sig Strikes Landed Per Round & Strike Accuracy

Sig Strikes Landed / Min Percentile

Strike Accuracy Percentile

Strike Defense Percentile

JDM vs Prates Damage Ratio

JDM vs Prates Sub Threat

Let me know what you guys think!

reddit.com

u/HackleMMA — 3 days ago