u/FFLGO

School book fair today. All I had was $20's so I left one on counter for each kiddo. Silly me forgot to remind them to bring home their change. Later on 9yo tells me he gave his $7 change to a friend. The friend had brought in his own $10. Why am I buying this kid a book?

I had felt bad for the kids as mom was telling 9yo might have to spend his own money for book fair(for some reason). Silly me I thought she was trying to teach him a finance lesson. No way I thought she would go from "You're too old for us to buy your book fair books" to 'give away dad's money'.

But it feels like a set-up. I wasn't happy he gave away my money and we had to have a talk. Which of course seemed ridiculous to him because mom told him to do it. And she never does anything wrong. She technically didn't do anything wrong. So she won't apologize and I kinda come out like the bad guy here.

I recognize the trivial nature of this. I can't explain why this is so exasperating. I did a solid workout and I'm still steamed.

This woman once (rightfully) made our son give back a Pokemon card to a classmate because we don't take bribes for friendship. She "doesn't remember" this.

We saw the other parents tonight at school and I was shocked they didn't try to give the money back. I would have been horrified if my kid took money from a classmate and bought his own book.

I am so mad and I can't talk to anybody. I am waiting for her to come home so i can take a walk. I know this is the stupidest thing ever, but it created conflict for me and my son. Am I completely off base and unreasonable here?

Jayden Reed is a recent rookie of the year whose main issues have been injuries, and playing time in the Packers revolving door at WR. We know Matthew Golden is going to get a chance, but he didn't do much last season to prove he should be starting over Reed and Watson. Kraft will of course get his at TE, but Jordan Love is a solid passer who is capable of feeding multiple targets. With Wicks and Doubs out and the WR corps finally narrowed down, Reed could see the largest role of his career.

While his ADP of WR46 should go up this summer, an expected bump in playing time, maybe even that elusive 11 personnel role, give Jayden Reed a clear path to outproducing his draft capital.

DJ Moore 2025 - great player, drafted later than ever. On paper, everything looks great. You may have had to read between the lines, but there were reasons to beleive DJ Moore might not be a priority to target for Ben Johnson. He had put some bad tape out with low effort late 2024. The first theing Ben Johnson did when he got the Bears job was draft two pass catchers in Loveland and Burden. While Odunze looked terrible as a rookie, well DJ Moore didn't produce in the Shane Waldron Bears offense either, so an improvement from the 2024 1st round pick wasn't an unrealistic expectation. But the chance to get a perennial top 20 WR, Caleb Williams' #1 WR in the new Ben Johnson office, for the relative bargain of a 5th round pick, kept his value inflated. Meanwhile, Odunze and Burden were hot early and late, respectively, and drafted rounds later.

Terry Mclaurin and DK Metcalf were other examples of falling knives from 2025.

Conclusion: This profile of a falling knife player often looks like a name-brand veteran(or rookie) who's ADP dropped after a down year. His earlier production may be inflating his value more than his current situation merits.

In 2026 this could be a player like Luther Burden, Jaylen Waddle, or Mike Evans. I like some of those guys at the right cost, but I don't want to reach out and grab the falling knife. If I get the wrong Bears WR in the early 4th, that's a much greater opportunity cost than getting the wrong one in the 7th. And they just might all be pretty good and none of them are deserving of a top 50 pick anyway. I'd prefer to target cheaper options like Odunze or Stribling and use those early round picks on a player who might not have so much good competition.

Mods: Hope this strategy discussion is ok

It's a common rookie mistake to enter draft season with a single-minded strategy like late-round QB, hero/zero/robust RB. But the best way to win your draft is to take advantage of value the draft gives you, as well as knowing which players to shy away from and let your competitors draft.

Falling Value

If you're picking 7th in a superflex dynasty startup draft, you might have your heart set on an elite QB. But if the first 6 picks off the board are QBs, you might be better off to pivot to an elite RB or WR.

Why? Well, you've already missed the top 6 QBs. Tilting to settle for a QB just to check the box might mean you're reaching for a QB. Meanwhile, those other 6 managers are going to be looking at RB/WR/TE in rounds 2 and 3. So if you keep tilting you are likely to continue chasing positional runs. Whereas if you pivot and take the RB1/WR1, you get out in front of those runs. And you know those first six managers will be pivoting away from QB, likely leaving you some value at QB in round 2/3. So rather than take the 7th best QB and the 7th best RB/WR, you can get the RB1 or WR1 and still get a top 10 QB.

Mods: I hope this strategy discussion is ok.

I plan to post a discussion of falling knives later.