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u/Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer

▲ 28 r/NovoNordisk_Stock

Reality Check

I will just say up front, I am a Novo investor of 20+ years, it's my largest position by far and I've added plenty since the Q1 drop.

Let's go through the good and the bad and have a look at what Novo actually needs to do, because some of the cheerleading today is a bit baffling. I even see comments declaring Wegovy "best in class" which is frankly delusional.

The Bad:

CagriSema failed non-inferiority against tirzepatide in REDEFINE 4 on 23 February. 23% vs 25.5% weight loss at 84 weeks on the efficacy estimand, 20.2% vs 23.6% on the treatment-regimen estimand meaning the primary endpoint was not met. This confirmed what the cross-trial data already suggested, that the GLP-1/amylin mechanism cannot match GLP-1/GIP dual agonism on weight loss and we should expect no better from Amycretin.

Novo's response has been to escalate semaglutide dosing. Wegovy HD (7.2mg) was approved in March, launched in April, but let's use the correct numbers. The STEP UP label figure, the treatment-regimen estimand published in the Lancet (Wharton et al., 2025), is 18.7% weight loss at 72 weeks. The 20.7% figure Novo uses in press materials is the on-treatment estimand, which excludes people who dropped out. Zepbound's label is 20.9%, so the gap has not closed and the tolerability cost of tripling the dose is severe, with GI adverse events above 70% of participants, plus a new dysaesthesia signal at roughly 23%. Today's ECO sub-analysis showed that early responders, 27% of patients hit 27.7%, but the other 73% averaged only 15.4%, so most patients on Wegovy HD are getting results below Zepbound's population average. That is just the truth, inconvenient as it may be to some.

And of course the stock reflects Novo's pipeline challenge, trading at roughly $47 down about 67% from the June 2024 high of $142 with a P/E of around 11x versus Lilly at roughly 34x.

The Good:

The Wegovy pill launch is the strongest GLP-1 launch in history with over 2 million cumulative prescriptions since the 5 January launch. Q1 revenue of DKK 2.26 billion ($354 million) is more than double what analysts expected. Weekly scripts exceeded 200,000 by mid-April and the Wegovy brand now holds ~65% of new US prescriptions. Injectable Wegovy revenue grew 12% year-on-year alongside the pill, which confirms that oral is pulling in new patients rather than cannibalising the existing injectable base. That's fantastic and no doubt sell-side analysts everywhere feel pretty stupid.

The body composition data from STEP UP deserves attention too. An MRI sub-study presented at ECO today showed 84% of weight lost on semaglutide was fat mass, with muscle function preserved and visceral fat reduced by over 30%. It's a small sample (n=55), and it needs replication, but if it holds it gives Novo a potentially genuine differentiator even when the headline weight loss numbers don't match tirzepatide.

Novo's balance sheet remains stellar: DKK 309 billion in 2025 revenue, DKK 102 billion net profit, with comfortable M&A firepower over $60 billion.

So what needs to happen?

Novo's internal next-generation assets cannot close the competitive gap in time. Even if UBT251 (GLP-1/GIP/glucagon) and NN419 (GLP-1/GIP/amylin) turn out to be the most promising molecules in all of obesity (which would be quite something), Phase 3 trial initiation in the US wouldn't happen for years, and obesity Phase 3 trials run 72 to 84 weeks minimum. At least that's the SURMOUNT, STEP UP, and REDEFINE precedent. Add regulatory review and you're looking at US approval well into the 2030s. Semaglutide goes generic in 2032..

So Novo cannot wait. CagriSema isn't going to cut it even if you fold it into the Wegovy brand and call it "Wegovy Awesome". M&A is coming because it has to, and that's not a bad thing either. Doustdar knows this and has already signalled up to $40 billion in M&A spend. Novo's BD team ran 200 meetings at the JPM conference with a mandate to go "very big" on acquisitions. After Q1 results last week he told CNBC he's "always open to doing deals" and that Novo needs "not just the best, but the broadest pipeline in the world."

The real inflection point for the stock is whether management acquires a next-gen molecule with GIP activity before the competitive window closes. That is, if Mike is serious about having "the broadest pipeline in the world". The organic path does not get there fast enough while the pill is buying time brilliantly. Whether that time gets used wisely should inform your entire investment thesis from here on out.

reddit.com
u/Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer — 3 days ago
▲ 55 r/NovoNordisk_Stock

Do we really think obesity is only going to 10x the next ten years? Really???

I stopped posting here some weeks back because the successive oral Wegovy launch combined with the pricing of Novo as if it had no obesity franchise was no longer that interesting to follow, although there are several interesting things likely to happen in the not-too-distant future, I hope.

The stock is up roughly 30% from March lows and I assume many of those who were underwater then and decided to sell are probably wringing their hands in silence. Of course there are still lots who are concerned with daily price moves, why this, why that, searching for day-to-day narratives. Relax, have a drink.

So I thought it would be worth posting this graph which shows quite clearly that Novo and Lilly will combined hit $100 billion in revenue for obesity probably within the next 18 months. I think everyone should take another look at the timeline on this graph and consider exactly what is happening in real time. AI may be the story that everyone talks about but GLP-1s are the real breakthrough of the 21st century so far (and sure as hell isn't a bubble).

And to those who bought and are holding, congratulations, I salute you. To those who either left and may regret it or are still sitting on the sidelines, what are you waiting for?

Enjoy your week everyone.

u/Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer — 4 days ago
▲ 40 r/oil

Wen peace?

Here’s Iran’s deputy minister for foreign affairs (TLDR: the hardliners want to get it on):

“France has announced that it has dispatched the aircraft carrier "Charles de Gaulle" to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden to prepare for a future joint mission between Paris and London aimed at strengthening freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz region. Meanwhile, the British government has also announced that, in coordination with France, it will deploy one of its warships to the Red Sea.

Any deployment and stationing of extra-regional destroyers around the Strait of Hormuz, under the pretext of "protecting shipping," is nothing but an escalation of the crisis, the militarization of a vital waterway, and an attempt to cover up the true root of insecurity in the region. Maritime security cannot be ensured through displays of military power; especially not by actors who, through their support, participation, or silence in the face of aggression and siege, are themselves part of the problems.

The source of insecurity in the region lies in the illegal resort to force, the ongoing threats against coastal states, maritime sieges, and disregard for the United Nations Charter.

The Strait of Hormuz is not the common property of extra-regional powers; it is a sensitive waterway adjacent to coastal states, and the exercise of sovereignty by the Islamic Republic of Iran over this strait and the determination of its legal arrangements is Iran's right as a coastal state.

French officials have stated that their deployed warship is tasked with mine clearance and escorting ships once calm is restored. We remind them that, whether in times of war or peace, only the Islamic Republic of Iran can establish security in this strait and will not allow any country to interfere in such matters.

Accordingly, it is emphasized that the presence of French and British warships, or those of any other country potentially accompanying the illegal and internationally unlawful actions of the United States in the Strait of Hormuz, will be met with a decisive and immediate response from the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, they are strongly advised not to complicate the situation further.”

reddit.com
u/Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer — 5 days ago
▲ 75 r/EnergyAndPower

Sweden pauses plans for new power cable to Denmark

As a pro-green, pro-nuke Dane, I am grateful to the Swedes for the cold shower they are willing to give Brussels, Berlin and Copenhagen.

Thank you (no /s).

reuters.com
u/Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer — 7 days ago
▲ 550 r/oil

Above chart strips out China (opaque), strategic reserves (government-controlled), and oil on water (in transit). What's left is the commercially accessible inventory the market can actually bid on. As of May 1 that number is 2,832.6 mb.

The draw rate over the last 27 days is 3.37 mbd. At that pace, we breach the 2022 low (2,750.6 mb) in 3 weeks.

Top panel: the 2022 low was set during the post-Ukraine invasion scramble and was considered a crisis marker at the time and we are ~82 mb above that level and falling fast.

Bottom panel: even if Hormuz reopens in 5 days stocks will continue to fall until July 1 bottoming at 2,721 mb, ~30 mb below 2022. 10 days, bottom at 2,704. Fifteen days, bottom at 2,688. So every outcome puts us well below 2022 and likely much much further.

As mentioned in prior posts, even within observable liquids, 60 to 70% is pipeline linefill and tank bottoms, 20 to 25% is minimum working stock to keep refineries from shutting down, so the tradeable buffer above minimum operating inventory is a fraction of the headline number.

The global net drain was 10.6 mbd on Goldman's early April numbers. By late April it was 12.6 mbd. So while we were going 60mph towards the wall a month ago, we continue to accelerate towards it.

u/Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer — 10 days ago
▲ 749 r/oil

Nearly 30 days ago I posted Goldman's first Hormuz disruption chart. So how does it look now?

Flows have dropped from 1.3 to 0.8 mbd (96% up from 94%).

The world has managed to compensate harder than anyone expected and pipeline redirections nearly doubled from 2.9 to 4.8 mbd. Sanctioned oil imports from Iran and Russia more than doubled from 0.4 to 0.9 mbd. SPR releases held steady at 1 mbd. Everything has been maxed out.

Net drain on global commercial inventories went from 10.6 mbd to 12.6 mbd.

Goldman now breaks out the Middle East separately and the ex-ME hit is actually 14.2 mbd, but 1.7 mbd of that is just Gulf states hoarding into their own storage. The rest of the world is draining at 12.6 mbd.

The tradeable buffer above minimum operating inventory (the actual liquid barrels you can bid on), is a fraction of the headline inventory number. Most of those billions of barrels in "storage" are pipeline linefill, tank bottoms, and minimum working stock that can never hit the market.

u/Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer — 14 days ago
▲ 76 r/EconomyCharts

TLDR: Goldman estimates an 11 to 12 mb/d deficit in April using two independent methods that converge on the same number. Their base case assumes flows recover by end-June with 0.5 mb/d of permanent scarring. Even then, Brent stays above $90. Their severely adverse case peaks above $140 and doesn't drop below $100 until 2028. Left panel gets there through inventory draws, right panel through supply-demand accounting

Goldman's base case peaks around $105 and settles near $90 by Q4, but realised prices are already running above base case. The forwards curve sits below all of Goldman's scenarios except benign, which means the market is pricing in a faster resolution than Goldman's own base case assumes.

The Adverse scenario (flows recover end-July, 0.5 mb/d scarring) peaks around $120 and settles above $100 into 2027. The severely adverse scenario (end-July recovery + 2.5 mb/d permanent capacity loss) peaks above $140 and doesn't return to $100 until mid-2028. 2.5 mb/d of scarring is equivalent to Hormuz flows never recovering above 70% until new pipeline capacity is built.

Their benign scenario is the only one where Brent drops below $80. It requires mid-June normalisation, zero capacity scarring, and stronger US and core OPEC supply response. Three assumptions that all need to break right simultaneously with no Hormuz resolution in sight.

u/Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer — 18 days ago
▲ 68 r/EconomyCharts

TLDR: Global supply loss hit 13.7 mbd in April. Inventories are draining at 7.1 mbd. Demand has fallen 4.3 mbd, but 87% of that destruction is concentrated in Asia, ME and Africa. Europe and the Americas have barely started absorbing the shock. And there's still a 2.3 mbd residual gap the market can't explain.

Fig. 1 shows global inventory change, which fell off a cliff in March and accelerated in April. Mild builds in January, draws approaching 9 mbd two months later.

Refinery run cuts went from 2.3 to 3.8 mbd. This means refineries are shutting down because they can't get feedstock. Dated Brent jumped from $104 to $122 in one month while the flat price barely moved. That backwardation is the physical market screaming at us.

Fig. 3 is the one to watch. Asia is absorbing almost everything right now, and when that shifts to Europe, diesel and jet fuel go vertical.

Fig. 4 shows your math. Supply loss minus inventory release minus demand loss still leaves 2.3 mbd unaccounted for. JPM Commodities Research flags it as the residual balancing item, which means that either actual draws are larger than reported, or there's hidden demand destruction nobody is measuring yet.

u/Dyn-O-mite_Rocketeer — 18 days ago