r/NovoNordisk_Stock

This post is not aimed at people who are aiming to trade the stock. Its aimed at investors who believe in the fundamentals of the company and understand the nature of investing. I'm a healthcare professional, so my investment thesis is based on proffesional judgement instead of technical analysis an economist may do.

I'd love to hear your thoughts guys.

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ORAL GLP1 SPACE
The oral GLP-1 space isn’t looking as favourable for Eli Lilly as it might seem. Novo Nordisk have actually executed very well in this area, and that deserves credit - even if the market hasn’t fully recognised it yet. If not now, it likely will once earnings start reflecting it. LLY have tirzepatide currently in the market (absolutely smashing it), foundayo just approved (which im skeptical of, explained below) and retatrudie in its pipeline (expected to be a blockbuster drug). Does that all mean NVO is doomed and pricing for failure is justified? No.

On the drug side, orforglipron (Foundayo) has some real limitations around patient accessibility. Its mechanism involves the liver, and higher doses in trials have shown signals of liver injury. When you think about the typical patient population - obese individuals - many will already be on statins, a fair number will have fatty liver disease, and some (particularly women) may be on contraceptives. Those are all relative contraindications.

By contrast, Novo’s oral semaglutide uses the SNAC delivery mechanism, which bypasses the liver. That removes a lot of those concerns. On top of that, it already has trial data supporting cardiovascular and renal benefits, alongside weight loss - which, in some studies, is stronger than what we’ve seen with Lilly’s oral candidate.

NEXT GEN MEDS
Regarding next generation drugs, NVO have cagrisema lined up. From the headlines I agree it appears disappointing, as it suggests that current gen drug (tirzep) is superior to next gen drug (cagri). Did anyone take a second to look into the trial? Low dose cagri was used compared to high dose tirzep, and fell off by a few %s. Imagine if higher dose cagri was used, and matched similar dosing - do you really think it will 'disappoint'? That is a trial lined up for later 2026 for anyone interested. CagriSema is promising, perhaps not to the same extent as retatrutide - but it will be released before that, which gives time for market share to be gained, profit accumulated and revenue generated well in advance. It doesnt even end there, NVO have amycretin in its pipeline for the distant future too. Clearly, NVO is an excellent company that have pioneered GLP1 and are producing drugs now that are accessible and tolerable for patients and are still developing drugs for the distant future - does this sound like a failing company?

INVESTMENT THESIS
From an investment perspective, holding Novo longer term still looks like the more compelling play to me.

1. Lilly has dominated injectables recently, no question. But that space is becoming more competitive - especially with higher-dose Wegovy now available. And realistically, if oral options become widely available, many patients will prefer them over injections.

2.The oral GLP-1 market looks set up in Novo’s favour. It’s more accessible, appears better tolerated (lower dropout rates due to side effects), and demand has already been proven - even with pricing pressure - through platforms like Ro and Hims. The SNAC technology is also patented well into the 2040s, which gives them a long runway.

3. If you look outside the US, the picture strengthens further. In the UK, NICE guidance is moving toward recommending semaglutide for secondary prevention of major cardiovascular events like heart attacks and strokes - which directly supports Novo’s positioning.

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Taking all of that together, the current market pricing of Novo looks overly pessimistic. The 2026 guidance is set quite low. When you weigh that against the factors above, it doesn’t look like a business in decline - it looks like one that’s setting up to meet or beat expectations, with stronger growth in the years that follow.

NVO will file with the FDA in the 2nd half of 2026, with approval in 2027. It's a once-daily oral pill for sickle cell disease, which is a significant advantage over more invasive gene therapies or intravenous treatments.

Unlike some existing treatments that focus on pain management, Etavopivat is designed to improve the overall lifespan of red blood cells, reducing the frequency of painful vaso-occlusive crises and anemia.

It will compete with established treatments like Oxbryta from Pfizer and newer, high-tech gene therapies from companies like Vertex and bluebird bio.

Because gene therapies are incredibly expensive ($2M - $3M per patient) and require complex procedures, a relatively affordable, effective daily pill could capture a massive share of the patient population.

The future for NVO lies in these innovative oral pill treatments, so remember that the Wegovy pill is just the beginning.

The recent Citi report highlights a significant pivot in the obesity market, noting that oral tablets now account for 29% of new prescriptions.

This shift suggests that the "injection-only" era of GLP-1 dominance is facing its first major structural challenge as patients and providers opt for easier-to-administer alternatives.

The weight-loss market has been defined by high-demand injectables like Wegovy and Zepbound. However, the surge to nearly 30% for tablets in such a short period indicates a faster-than-expected adoption of oral versions.

Tablets eliminate "needle phobia" and the logistical hurdle of refrigeration.

Oral formulations are generally cheaper to produce and distribute than complex injector pens.

Analysts suggest that while injections may remain the choice for those needing maximum weight loss, tablets are attracting a new segment of "mildly obese" or overweight patients who might have avoided medical intervention previously.

Citi’s data confirms that 2026 is a "pivotal year." The introduction of oral options is expected to significantly expand the total addressable market (TAM), even if some "cannibalization" of injectable sales occurs.

For investors and patients, the focus is now shifting from efficacy (how much weight is lost) to convenience and adherence (how easy it is to stay on the medication).

The fact that tablets have already captured 29% of the prescription share suggests that the "tablet-first" approach for new patients could soon become the industry standard.

Bagsværd, Denmark, 20 April 2026 – Novo Nordisk today announced the topline results from HIBISCUS, a pivotal phase 3 trial of once-daily oral etavopivat in adults and adolescents with sickle cell disease (SCD). The results showed that etavopivat successfully met both co-primary endpoints, demonstrating superior reduction in vaso-occlusive crises (VOCs) and superior improvement in haemoglobin (Hb) response compared to placebo.

Etavopivat is an oral, once-daily, pyruvate kinase-R (PKR) activator being developed to treat SCD, a seriously debilitating, life-threatening and life-shortening disease that impacts around 8 million people worldwide.

The HIBISCUS trial was a randomised, double-blinded, 52-week efficacy and safety trial investigating etavopivat 400 mg versus placebo in 385 people aged 12 years or older with SCD. Participants were allowed to receive standard of care treatment throughout the trial.

In the trial1, people treated with etavopivat demonstrated a superior reduction in the annualised rate of VOCs of 27% compared to placebo. The time to first VOC was significantly prolonged with etavopivat, with a median time to first VOC of 38.4 weeks versus 20.9 weeks for placebo.

In addition, etavopivat demonstrated a superior increase in the proportion of people achieving a Hb response greater than 1g/dL at week 24 of 48.7% compared to 7.2% with placebo, corresponding to an adjusted rate difference of 41.2%1. Further, as an exploratory analysis, etavopivat significantly reduced the risk of blood transfusion.

In the trial, etavopivat appeared to be well tolerated, with a topline safety profile in line with previous etavopivat trials.

“Sickle cell disease severely impacts the lives of millions of people. We are very excited that etavopivat has the potential to be a first and best-in-class therapy and transform the lives of people with sickle cell disease, who currently have limited therapeutic options,” said Martin Holst Lange, executive vice president, chief scientific officer and head of Research and Development at Novo Nordisk. “Novo Nordisk remains committed to collaborating with sickle cell disease communities around the world to drive innovation, advance health equity and improve access to treatment and care.”

Novo Nordisk plans to submit for the first regulatory approval of etavopivat in the second half of 2026. The detailed results from the HIBISCUS phase 3 trial will be presented at a scientific conference in 2026.

Semaglutide initiation is associated with a lower risk for adult-onset epilepsy or seizures among adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus, according to study results presented at the American Academy of Neurology (AAN) Annual Meeting, held in Chicago, IL, from April 18 to 22, 2026.

Adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus have an elevated risk for seizures and epilepsy, potentially driven by inflammatory processes affecting the central nervous system. Beyond glucose regulation, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) have been explored for potential neurologic effects, though their influence on seizure risk remains unclear.

Researchers conducted a retrospective active-comparator, new-user target trial emulation using the National Institutes of Health All of Us Controlled Tier Dataset. The study included adults aged 18 years and older with type 2 diabetes mellitus who newly initiated semaglutide, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), or other glucose-lowering therapies between December 2018 and December 2021, with follow-up through December 2023. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to balance baseline characteristics, and time-to-event analyses were performed.

Among 393,596 eligible individuals, 8533 comprised the semaglutide vs glucose-lowering drug cohort (n=2397 vs n=6136), and 7455 comprised the semaglutide vs SGLT2i cohort (n=1650 vs n=3725).

After adjustment, semaglutide initiation was associated with a reduced risk for epilepsy or seizures compared with both glucose-lowering drugs (hazard ratio [HR], 0.46; 95% CI, 0.25–0.83; P =.010) and SGLT2i (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.22–0.86; P =.017).

Additional modeling showed absolute risk reductions of -0.014 (number needed to treat [NNT], 69; P <.001) relative to glucose-lowering drugs and -0.008 (NNT, 129; P <.001) relative to SGLT2i.

Mediation analyses suggested that glycated hemoglobin accounted for only a small proportion of the observed association, contributing 1.1% of the effect in the comparison with glucose-lowering drugs and 3.6% in the comparison with SGLT2is, while body mass index contributed 0.3% or less in both comparisons.

We spoke with Yoonhyuk Jang, MD, PhD, Postdoctoral Fellow, Department of Immunology, Harvard Medical School, who noted, “This study suggests that semaglutide may be associated with a lower risk of adult-onset seizures or epilepsy in patients with type 2 diabetes, with the signal appearing more pronounced in late-onset cases among adults aged 60 years or older.”

He continued, “Given that age-associated brain insults are major contributors to adult-onset seizures and epilepsy, these findings may have implications beyond seizure risk alone and raise the possibility that semaglutide could also be relevant to broader brain health; however, because this was a retrospective target trial emulation with a relatively small number of events, it is not yet practice-changing and should instead be viewed as a signal that supports further research into the role of GLP-1 receptor agonists in epileptogenesis.”

I recently bought 2100 shares at an average of $36 and plan to hold them short term.

Considering the positive aspects, my short-term hold might turn into a long-term investment,

Also not to discount, especially given the numerous posts in this group and elsewhere about the Novo new CEO's comments and casual talking style issue.

I'm just curious to know your thoughts. Thank you all, and have a great weekend.

Looks like something very positive for LLY or negative for Novo just happened.

Anyone seen something?

LLY went up 2% and Novo went down 2%.

April 17 (Reuters) - Eli Lilly's newly launched obesity pill was prescribed 1,390 times in ‌the U.S. as of the week ended April 10, according to an analyst who cited IQVIA data.

Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy had hit 3,071 U.S. prescriptions in the first four days after its launch on January 5.

Novo's pill was prescribed 113,354 times in same week compared to 105,366 prescriptions in the prior week, according to IQVIA. The analytics firm did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment.

With trump signing the executive order today for FDA to review psychedelics, does this mean our sector too will move up as it should?

Wegovy Pill: Symphony TRx Week 14 = 91,917 (3.4% growth overall)

Foundayo: Symphony TRx Week 1 = 15

Yes, 15. Not 15,000. 15.

The oral GLP-1 market has entered a new phase with the arrival of orforglipron (Foundayo, Eli Lilly), now competing directly with Wegovy (Novo Nordisk) in its oral form. At first glance, the narrative seems straightforward: a new entrant showing early traction versus a product that has already demonstrated scale. But, as is often the case with launches in this space, early data can be misleading.

The data for Wegovy oral (Novo Nordisk) helps frame the context. According to IQVIA figures cited by Reuters, its early trajectory was both rapid and consistent:

Week 0 (4 days): 3,071 TRx

Week 1: 18,410 TRx

Week 2: 26,109 TRx

Week 5: 38,220 TRx

Week 13: 105,366 TRx

Week 14: 113,354 TRx

The pattern is familiar: strong early growth followed by gradual deceleration as the product scales.

For Foundayo (Eli Lilly), the available data is far more limited:

Week 1 (partial, ~2 effective days): 1,390 TRx

On the surface, the gap looks significant. But that single data point isn’t directly comparable without adjusting for time on market.

Once adjusted, the picture changes.

Wegovy generated roughly ~768 TRx per day in its initial phase (3,071 over 4 days). Foundayo’s first read comes in at approximately ~695 TRx per day. In other words, Foundayo’s launch velocity is about 10%–15% below Wegovy’s on a like-for-like basis.

That’s not a dramatic gap—but it’s not neutral either. Wegovy started stronger.

What the clinical data says… and what real-world use might show:

Beyond initial velocity, attention quickly shifts to clinical profile. This is where the ORION-type indirect comparison becomes relevant, using data from separate trials (OASIS-4 for semaglutide and ATTAIN-1 for orforglipron).

The findings point to two consistent signals:

- An advantage for oral semaglutide in weight loss (~3 percentage points)

-Higher discontinuation rates with orforglipron, particularly due to gastrointestinal side effects

This is not a head-to-head study, and that limitation matters. But it does highlight a potential difference in the balance between efficacy and tolerability.

There is also a practical, real-world dimension. Foundayo follows a dose-escalation regimen, with monthly titration to higher levels. Regulatory data shows that gastrointestinal side effects increase with dose. The implication is fairly straightforward from a market perspective: early weeks reflect patient uptake, while later weeks reflect patient retention.

How to read TRx without overreacting:

It’s easy to overinterpret early prescription data. TRx (Total Prescriptions) combines both new prescriptions and refills, so it doesn’t cleanly separate growth from retention.

That’s why analysts also look at NRx (new prescriptions) and, more importantly, how week-over-week growth evolves.

For Wegovy (Novo Nordisk), the pattern is clear:

Week 1 → 2: growth above 40%

Following weeks: steady expansion to ~38k

Week 13 → 14: growth around 7%

This reflects a typical progression from hypergrowth to normalization.

For Foundayo (Eli Lilly), there simply isn’t enough data yet to draw the same conclusions. But that will be the key question over the next few weeks: whether growth holds as treatment advances and higher-dose dynamics begin to matter.

With the current information, a gradual divergence in the coming weeks looks like the most plausible outcome. Wegovy oral (Novo Nordisk) should continue growing from its current base of ~113,000 TRx, albeit at a slower pace, consolidating its patient base. Foundayo (Eli Lilly), meanwhile, is likely to grow rapidly from a low starting point. But the real question isn’t whether it will grow—it will—but how much of that growth is sustained once the therapy enters a more demanding phase.

Ultimately, the difference lies not in the launch, but in the shape of the curve. Wegovy has already shown it can scale beyond 100,000 weekly TRx. Foundayo still needs to demonstrate it can follow that path without losing momentum.

We’ll probably see the first data tomorrow – or maybe not?

https://x.com/CloisterRes/status/2044724708583567655

"I have this sneaking suspicion that the orforglipron launch for $LLY is not going quite so fast as they might have hoped.

As in, the first day of IQVIA-reported TRx (which was actually day 7 of approval) was only 25. Not 2500. 25."

I know this is a loaded question, but how high do you think it can go? I’m talking specifically about the post-earnings move. In my humble opinion, I don’t think it’ll be an unstoppable rally, but 55-65 seems like a conservative range (if results are good). In a case of pure euphoria, where could it land? 75-85? Don’t get me wrong, I didn’t just jump in yesterday expecting a pump. I’ve been averaging down since it was at $84, and my average price is now $49. Thoughts? Sorry for my bad English, I’m still learning

Insulin

Novo Nordisk states that it will resume supplying human insulin to the Brazilian public health system (SUS) if the Ministry of Health signs a contract by the end of May. The ministry, headed by Alexandre Padilha, says it will open a bidding process in the coming months for the purchase of the medication used to control diabetes.

The Danish pharmaceutical company has reduced deliveries to the public healthcare system in recent years and announced it would stop manufacturing the product by the end of 2026. This market shift coincided with a portfolio restructuring by major insulin manufacturers, who began focusing on weight-loss medications. In the case of Novo Nordisk, its strongest product is Ozempic.

The market shift has had a strong impact on the supply of insulin in the public healthcare system and the Farmácia Popular program. The SUS (Brazilian public healthcare system) has faced cycles of shortages since at least 2023. To circumvent the scarcity in the local market, the ministry began purchasing medications without registration from Anvisa (National Health Surveillance Agency), mainly imported from China.

However, purchasing these products without registration raises criticism from the national industry and questions from medical societies about the quality of these products.

Novo Nordisk's proposal is to sell 100 million to 125 million insulin pens from July 2026 to March 2028, produced at its factory in Montes Claros (MG). Considering the company's latest public contract values, the purchase would cost more than R$ 1.5 billion.

The pharmaceutical company says it will maintain its plan to halt production of this type of insulin by the end of 2026 if no agreement is reached with the Lula (PT) government. The company's statement was delivered to the Ministry of Health and to CONASEMS (National Council of Municipal Health Secretariats).

Eurofarma (Novo Nordisk's partner in Brazil)

Eurofarma announced this Thursday (April 16th) a patient program that will offer semaglutide at reduced prices. The pharmaceutical company launched the injectable original biological semaglutide brands Poviztra® and Extensior® in October 2025, in partnership with Novo Nordisk. With the program, the dosages of the medications should become up to 17% more affordable.

The program integrates the launch of EuroCuida (EuroCares), developed to offer more accessible and continuous care. In addition to price reductions, according to Eurofarma, the initiative seeks to encourage the initiation, adherence, and continuity of treatments. The goal is to expand access to treatment for obesity, overweight associated with comorbidities, and type 2 diabetes for the Brazilian population.

In addition to reduced fixed prices for all semaglutide dosages, EuroCuida (Eurocares) also aims to expand access to treatment initiation.