It loaded nearly $200K on no temporary peace deal by the end of April
Already up more than $180K
It also doesn’t believe any deal happens even by the end of June
Potential payout: $700,000
This wallet is already up $183K+
One of the most interesting quiet wallets on Polymarket right now
WHAT IS THIS?
Someone is turning literal 0 positions into thousands of dollars right now
Just look at these positions
Villa have a 49% chance to win Europa League, per Polymarket
Neymar's chances of playing in the World Cup has just shot up to 42% on Polymarket.
SpaceX is working with Cursor and has an option to buy the startup for $60B
Source: TechCrunch
68% chance Starmer doesn't make it beyond this year!
24% chance Trump will dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25
65% chance marijuana is rescheduled this year.
48% chance the government takes a stake in Spirit by the end of next month.
51% chance Hormuz traffic returns to normal by the end of next month
> $933,058 PnL
> 52.3% win rate
> Ranked #118 overall
T1, Gen.G, JDG, BLG… consistent reads across top-tier matchups.
Account: https://polymarketanalytics.com/traders/0x13414a77a4be48988851c73dfd824d0168e70853
"US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31."
It's a specific operational bet dressed up as a status quo trade and he's already +$13k on it.
Wallet: https://polymarket.com/@denizz?r=grazka#StejxF3 (pseudonym: denizz).
This month's PnL: +$1,013,171. Total weekly volume: $1.24M.
He spent March and early April going short every Iran escalation trade on the board. All of those worked.
Now he's picked something more precise.
The build:
Friday: Position opens at ~$130k. Saturday: $130k. Sunday: $203k (+$73k added). Today: $206k.
PnL on the position went from -$8k on open → +$13k today. He's already paid for the cost of entry.
What is he actually betting on?
The market resolves YES only if the US takes physical possession of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile by May 31.
That requires:
A specific deal negotiated
Material transfer agreed and executed
All in ~6 weeks
He's betting none of that happens.
The confirmation:
Another wallet (0x7368...8b3b) is running a parallel thesis on a sister market.
$22k NO on "Iran agrees to surrender uranium stockpile." $5.6k NO on "Hormuz unrestricted shipping."
Different path, same conclusion: no operational concessions.
The bigger picture in denizz's book:
$229k NO Iran regime falls 2027
$206k NO US obtains uranium May 31
$201k NO US invades Iran 2027
$636k short on every scenario where the current situation changes.
This isn't a directional bet. It's a structural one.
The trade if you want exposure:
NO "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31." Check the current price if it's below 85¢, you're getting decent edge relative to the baseline.
15 days later
The panic premium is officially draining
Probability dumped from 34% down to 20%
If you bought "No" when retail was panicking at the top you just collected massive theta decay for free
A government doesn't collapse just because of a news cycle
Stop trading geopolitics like a 5-minute crypto chart
BTC and ETH resolve opposite directions 21.6% of the time. That's 313 markets where one coin was wrong.
1,448 paired BTC + ETH 5-minute markets opening at the same timestamp. We tracked which way each one resolved and what the BTC opening price implied.
BTC and ETH agree 78.4% of the time. Both UP: 552 markets. Both DOWN: 583 markets.
BTC UP + ETH DOWN: 156 markets.
BTC DOWN + ETH UP: 157 markets.
313 markets where the correlation broke. One coin followed the crypto move. The other didn't.
Here's the twist. The disagreement rate INCREASES as the BTC favorite gets more expensive.
BTC fav $0.55-$0.60: 22.9% disagreement.
BTC fav $0.60-$0.65: 25.3% disagreement.
BTC fav $0.65-$0.75: 14.0% disagreement.
At $0.60-$0.65, the market is pricing BTC at ~63% confidence. But ETH disagrees with BTC 25% of the time at that same level. One of them is wrong.
The cleanest signal: when BTC opens strongly favored UP (>$0.55) but actually resolves DOWN, ETH resolves DOWN 76.7% of the time too. 92 out of 120 upsets.
If BTC is going to upset its opening favorite, ETH comes along for the ride. If you spot the BTC reversal early in the market, the ETH token at that exact moment is probably still priced assuming correlation holds. That's the arbitrage window.
The hard part: detecting the BTC reversal fast enough to price the ETH token before the market catches up. That's an execution race, not a strategy question.
You can test simultaneous BTC and ETH 5-minute market data at Polybacktest
Here are some facts about his journey on Polymarket:
$6.11M profit on Polymarket
#12 on the all-time leaderboard
From $0 to $6.11M in just 9 months
83,955 predictions placed
$711K biggest single win
11 straight six-figure wins, averaging 150%+ ROI
Recent plays:
$225K profit fading Brentford, $712K profit backing Real Madrid.
INSANE: Polymarket wallet makes $4,800 EVERY DAY trading Bitcoin prices in 2026
They have a 56.1% win rate overall.
While most people haven't even picked out their jerseys yet, zygohedgehog, just dropped $14,000 on France to lift the trophy.
If France wins the 2026 World Cup, he’s turning that $14k into a massive $86,171.
France currently has a 16% win probability. Considering France has made the final in two of the last three World Cups, those odds actually look like decent value.
Are you backing the French dynasty, or is this just $14k of "merde"?
This polymarket trader just dropped $11,618 on Osasuna to win tonight’s game against Athletic Club.
If he’s right, he’ll earn a massive $55,324. That is a 5x return on a single La Liga game.
The "Lions" in Crisis: Athletic has lost four of their last five matches. They’ve conceded at least one goal in their last 21 matches straight. They might be 5th in the "Expected Goals" table, but in the actual table that pays out, they are struggling.
Only “Good Vibes": Osasuna is unbeaten in their last five visits to this stadium. They’ve scored more than double the goals Athletic has in their recent run, and they seem to have the psychological edge in this specific rivalry.
The reason the payout is so high (21% odds) is that San Mamés is usually a fortress. Despite their bad form, Athletic still has 8 home wins this season, while Osasuna has struggled on the road with only 2 wins.
This is going to be fun!!!
This guy is the definition of a specialist. He has only ever made three predictions in his entire history on the platform, and they all say the exact same thing: No peace
eb99999 is out here betting the house that the chaos isn't ending anytime soon.
The Total Stake: Across his three positions, he has roughly $300,000 locked in.
If April 22nd passes without a deal and the ceasefire expires, this guy is going to look like a genius!
Was browsing polymarkets and saw that the odds of GPT-5.5 dropping on April 23 are at 80%
At the same time, there were no announcements and not even any hints
You’d probably think it's insiders, I thought the same and went to research the holders
After looking into it, I'm sure there's nothing like that here and started searching for other patterns. It all turned out to be much simpler than you might think
Historically, OpenAI releases models on Thursdays more often than on other days. That’s why:
April 23 - 80%
April 30 - 5.5%
Top holders are definitely not insiders because they were also buying the April 16 release and ended up wrong
Personally, I’m not entering at these prices