r/Polymarket

I've been going through the full SSA dataset (every baby name registered in the US since 1880) and some of the pop culture effects are insane:

• Karen peaked at #3 in 1965. It's now #831 and still falling.
• Alexa was steadily climbing until 2015 when Amazon launched the Echo. It's dropped every year since.
• Isis was in the top 500 as recently as 2005. Completely gone by 2015.
• Katrina dropped 70% in one year after Hurricane Katrina.
• Khaleesi appeared in 2011 (Game of Thrones S1), peaked in 2018 with 560 babies, then dropped 68% after the finale.

The craziest one I found: Deneen. 22 babies in 1963. Then 1,604 in 1964 — a single-year 70x spike. Then back to 421 the next year. Still trying to figure out what caused it.

I built a tool to explore the full dataset if anyone wants to look up names: https://babynames.market/explore

What's the most dramatic name rise/fall you know of?

Saw this big trader bid $99,105 on Utah Mammoth to beat Edmonton Oilers tonight as they eye a $178,966 payout. Market volume hit $2M, with Oilers at 45% while Mammoth at 56%.

Why the conviction? Utah’s season record stands at 40-30-6 (40 wins, 30 regulation losses, 6 overtime losses and they have 86 points), fighting for a Western wild card spot. They’re solid at home (19-14-3 record), with elite goaltending posting a 2.87 GAA (goals against average, 5th in NHL). Recent form shines: 6-4-0 in last 10 (6 wins, 4 losses, no OTL), averaging 4.3 goals scored while allowing 3. Clayton Keller’s third hat trick fueled a 7-4 win over Vancouver. whats more? Sportsbooks list Utah as -125 moneyline favorites, with O/U 6.5.

But, Oilers counter at 39-29-9 (87 points, Pacific leaders), dominating head-to-head (2-0 this year with 6-3, and 5-2 wins which being the most recent, along with five straight overall wins). They’re 7-3-0 in the last 10, with NHL-best power play (29.7%) and McDavid’s 39 goals, allowing just 2.5 goals/game lately.

However, Injuries hurt Edmonton as Zach Hyman out 2 weeks (undisclosed), Leon Draisaitl done for regular season (lower-body). And, Utah’s got their own issue as MacKenzie Weegar is day-to-day.

High stakes for playoffs as Oilers hold Pacific lead, but Utah wild card. Whale betting home cooking over stars? What do you think?

The SpaceX IPO narrative keeps moving fast, and the range of expectations it has set is starting to feel this to be a way bigger than just a normal listing.

Reuters reported that SpaceX is targeting a fundraising round of up to $75 billion at a valuation as high as $1.75 trillion, while Bloomberg separately reported that bankers are now testing a valuation above $2 trillion. That’s already a huge spread for a deal this size, but the interesting part is how closely Polymarket is tracking the upper end of that band.

The SpaceX IPO closing market cap market on Polymarket is currently showing about $1.991T, with the biggest probability weight sitting in the $1.5T to $2T and $2T to $2.5T ranges. In other words, the crowd is basically pricing in a close call between the Reuters number and the Bloomberg number, which makes this one of the more interesting IPO prediction markets I’ve seen in a while.

And, there's more..Reuters says the company plans a large retail allocation and a June roadshow, while Bloomberg’s report suggests bankers are actively pressure-testing whether investors can absorb a $2T-plus story. If that’s the setup, then the market isn’t only betting on fundamentals, it’s betting on how much of Elon Musk's narrative survives the actual roadshow.

For me, the key question is simple.. does SpaceX clear the $2T dream premium, or does it settle closer to the more comparatively conservative $1.75T figure? Either way, Polymarket seems to be saying this deal is way more likely to be a monster than a miss

Conflicting reports have come out in the past hour with some including Reuters, WSJ have talked about Iran cutting of direct talks with the US. Tehran Times has posted this..

Odds of US Iran ceasefire have surged to 20% by April 15 on Polymarket