your acquisition numbers can look great for months while your actual growth engine is completely broken and the two things are almost impossible to tell apart
okay let me explain what i mean through something that took me a while to actually see.
imagine you're growing. new signups coming in consistently, MRR moving in the right direction, team is happy. everything on the surface looks like it's working.
then you run a simple cohort analysis for the first time in a few months.
and what you find is that your month three retention for every cohort is almost identical regardless of how many people signed up in that cohort. you're acquiring more users but the percentage who are still around ninety days later hasn't moved in six months.
so your growth has been almost entirely dependent on consistently increasing the top of the funnel. the moment acquisition slows down, for any reason, the whole thing deflates fast because you're not actually keeping enough of what you bring in.
the problem is this is completely invisible when you're only looking at total MRR and new signups. both of those numbers can look healthy for a long time while retention quietly stays flat or gets slightly worse.
has anyone gone through the moment of realising their growth was more fragile than it looked and what did you actually change first?