One thing I find interesting is that US prediction markets increasingly drift toward:
- political spectacle
- meme markets
- gambling dynamics
I wonder whether Europe could actually build a different model:
- more forecasting-oriented
- more research/media integrated
- more reputation-based
- less dopamine-driven
Do you think there’s room for that kind of ecosystem?
Would anyone be interested in second-level (1s frequency) market data for backtesting or research purposes?
I have up/down market data (best ask price) for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP markets, scraped from the Gamma API (by auto-slug mapping to the right 5/15mins market). This dataset is at 1-second intervals (while Polymarket API only provides 1-minute granularity last I checked).
Coverage:
5-minute intervals: 20 Feb 2026 to 4 May 2026, 15:42:34
15-minute intervals: 7 Jan 2026 to 4 May 2026
I stopped updating due to work commitments and some (lack of) trading success, but I'm happy to share or discuss the dataset if anyone's interested.
Curious what else would you use this kind of data for?
Sample as attached.
Hey :)
I got tired of constantly refreshing Polymarket to check price moves, so I built myself a Telegram bot that sends alerts for things like:
- price changes
- market resolution/endings
- other market events
A few people from my previous post asked if they could use it too, so I cleaned it up a bit and decided to share it.
Looking for a few early users to try it out for free and give honest feedback.
If you’re interested, comment here or DM me.
Hey everyone.
My name is Nathan Reed.
I want to share something
I've been building quietly
for the past 8 months.
Not a course. Not a service.
Just a personal project that
turned into something I'm
genuinely proud of.
WHO I AM
I'm a developer and
quantitative thinker who
got tired of watching
passive income strategies
that don't actually work.
Most "passive income" requires:
Constant attention.
Content creation.
Audience building.
Unpredictable results.
I wanted something mathematical.
Something where the edge
is guaranteed by structure
not by prediction.
That led me to sports arbitrage.
WHAT I DISCOVERED
Most people who bet on sports
are playing the wrong game.
They predict who wins.
Sometimes right. Sometimes wrong.
Capital always at risk.
Sports arbitrage is completely different.
The same game is priced
differently across two platforms
at the same time.
You bet both sides simultaneously.
One side always wins.
Profit locked in every time.
No prediction needed.
Pure mathematics.
This is not new.
Banks and hedge funds have
done this for over 100 years.
JPMorgan. Goldman Sachs.
Deutsche Bank.
They all run arbitrage desks.
They kept this strategy
for themselves for decades.
I built the infrastructure
to automate it for individuals.
THE BUILDING PROCESS
8 months of building
before touching real money.
Here's what I built:
PYTHON BOT LAYER
WebSocket readers connecting
directly to BetDEX and Dexsport
on Solana blockchain.
Real-time odds ingestion.
No scraping. Direct API.
Updates in milliseconds.
FUZZY EVENT MATCHER
Same game named differently
across platforms.
"Lakers vs Celtics" on one.
"Los Angeles Lakers v Boston Celtics"
on another.
Fuzzy matching algorithm
identifies them as same event.
Threshold: 80% similarity score.
ARB CALCULATOR
arb% = 100 - sum(1/odd_i × 100)
Positive percentage =
guaranteed profit exists.
TICK STABILITY ACCUMULATOR
Before executing any trade
bot confirms the price gap
has been stable for
5 consecutive scans.
25 seconds minimum.
Eliminates ghost arbs from
rapid line movement.
No executing on opportunities
that are already closing.
LIQUIDITY VERIFIER
Confirms sufficient liquidity
exists on both sides before
placing either leg.
If liquidity insufficient
trade aborted at zero loss.
PRE-EXECUTION REVALIDATION
Odds refetched milliseconds
before execution.
If gap compressed or disappeared
trade aborted.
Zero loss.
SIMULTANEOUS DUAL-LEG EXECUTION
Both bets fire at the same time.
Not one then the other.
Both simultaneously.
Average fill time: 200-500ms.
INSTANT HEDGE PROTOCOL
If Leg 2 fails after Leg 1
bot instantly places hedge
on same platform.
Containing loss to average
$1.37 per incident.
KELLY CRITERION STAKE SIZING
Position size proportional
to edge size and liquidity.
Never overexposed on
any single opportunity.
LARAVEL BACKEND
State management.
Trade logging.
API bridging between
bot and dashboard.
REACT DASHBOARD
Real-time execution feed.
P&L tracking.
Arb scanner display.
Bot status monitoring.
TELEGRAM ALERTS
Every trade executed sends
instant notification.
Every abort logged.
Every profit recorded.
THE STRESS TEST
Before going live with
real capital I ran an
extended chaos mode test.
Worst case scenarios.
Simulated network failures.
Forced execution errors.
Artificial odds movement.
RESULTS:
Total attempts: 140
Successful trades: 95 (68%)
Clean aborts: 38 (27%)
Exposure events: 7 (5%)
Total losses across ALL
7 exposure events: $9.60
Average loss per incident: $1.37
Exposure cost as percentage
of gross profit: 0.13%
System ran 83 ticks
approximately 14 minutes
with zero crashes.
Zero state corruption.
Zero runaway exposure.
The conclusion:
Architecturally sound.
Ready for real capital.
GOING LIVE
Started with $1,000.
Watched every trade.
Monitored every execution.
Week 1:
Bot found first opportunities.
Both legs executed simultaneously.
Profits landed in account.
Every completed trade green.
No losses on completed arbs.
Mathematically impossible
when both sides always covered.
Scaled capital gradually
as confidence in live
performance built.
THE ACHIEVEMENTS
Month 1:
Validated live performance
matches stress test results.
Month 2:
Scaled to meaningful capital.
Month 3 onwards:
Currently generating
$5k to $10k monthly.
Bot running 24 hours a day.
7 days a week.
While I sleep.
While I work.
While I live my life.
WHY I'M SHARING THIS
I realized the infrastructure
I built could support
multiple users simultaneously
without affecting my own returns.
So I'm releasing a public version.
Same bot. Same infrastructure.
Same execution quality.
COMPLETELY FREE TO JOIN.
We only take 20% of profits
the bot generates for you.
Zero profit — zero fees.
We only win when you win.
No subscription.
No monthly charges.
No setup fees.
No hidden costs.
Withdraw anytime.
No lock up period.
THE RISK
Is this completely risk free?
No investment strategy is.
The risks that exist:
Execution failures:
Our hedge system contains
these to $1.37 average.
Not your full capital.
$1.37.
Platform risk:
BetDEX or Dexsport could
have technical issues.
We monitor both 24/7.
Kill switch activates instantly
if anomalies detected.
Liquidity risk:
Thin markets limit position size.
Kelly criterion keeps us
proportional to available liquidity.
We never force large positions
through thin order books.
What is NOT a risk:
Losing money because a
sports team lost.
Both sides always covered.
Sporting outcomes are irrelevant.
RELEASING END OF THIS MONTH
Public version launches
end of May 2026.
Early access list is open.
If you have any questions
technical or otherwise
I'm here to answer everything.
No question is too basic.
No question is too technical.
Ask anything.
AMA 👇
Been following this new group. Their reasoning is solid.
big week ahead - swisstony's $7.7M football latency edge went viral, weather traders are printing $4K from $13 bets, and someone just dropped $135K on strickland vs chimaev at 18% odds. what are you watching or betting on? drop it below.
Hello weather traders,
What do you trade? Temperature or precipitation? What information do you wish you have or can access easily? Which one gives you more profit?
Let the discussion begin.
I trade temperature so far. Tmin is more profitable than Tmax based on my experience.
I’ve been testing a small wallet-audit script for Polymarket and would be keen for feedback from people here.
The basic idea is:
high PnL ≠ clean PnL
clean PnL ≠ copyable strategy
The script looks at things like:
- closed realised PnL
- live open-position PnL
- possible impaired/resolved exposure
- whether activity looks like scalping vs accumulation
- concentration risk
- whether the strategy looks followable by a normal person
One wallet I checked looked profitable on the surface, but the split was more interesting:
- around $3.08m closed realised PnL
- around -$32k live open-position PnL
- around -$1.08m flagged as possible impaired/resolved cash PnL
- strategy looked more like directional accumulation than arb/scalping
So the wallet may still be profitable, but the headline PnL alone didn’t really tell the full story.
I’m trying to work out if this is actually useful for people who follow wallets, or if it’s just interesting data.
If anyone has a wallet they think is worth checking, drop it here and I’ll run a few. Also keen to hear what metrics people would actually care about before deciding whether a wallet is worth following.
this week's whales: 1) $32K on US invading Cuba - down 70% but rubio just sanctioned the cuban military. early or cooked? 2) $75K+ on hormuz opening from a brand new wallet. 3) $65K on "no hantavirus pandemic" for an 8% return. who's smartest?
Hey, I'm a developer looking to solve problems in the prediction market space. Is there a tool out there that doesn't exist already that you think would be useful for you? Or is there a tool out there that exists already but has some glaring issue with it?
who's the smartest and who's just lucky?