Let me start by clarifying what I mean by “reactive.”
The CICO model treats the body as if it reacts to calorie availability in a direct, predictable, mechanical way. Less energy available means weight must go down. More energy available means weight must go up. Create a deficit, and fat loss must follow. Create a surplus, and fat gain must follow. Put the numbers into the calculator, and the body should obey.
That is the CICO model.
The body does not work that way.
The body is a dynamic, adaptive, living system that regulates its own energy economy. It does not passively receive calories and mechanically convert the difference into fat loss or fat gain. It changes fuel use. It changes expenditure. It changes efficiency. It changes how much energy is recycled, conserved, dissipated, mobilized, or stored.
That does not mean anyone is denying thermodynamics. That accusation is lazy and usually means the person does not understand the argument.
Energy conservation is real. Calories are energy. You cannot create energy from nowhere. You cannot spend energy without energy. Nobody serious is denying that.
But CICO is not thermodynamics. CICO is not a law. CICO is a model. It is disputed greatly upstream in clinical literature.
Thermodynamics says energy is conserved. It does not say a living organism must lose body fat in a clean, linear, predictable way because someone wrote a deficit into an app. It does not say every surplus calorie must be efficiently stored as body fat. It does not say the body has no regulatory systems.
That is the distinction CICO people keep dodging.
One of the cleanest examples is the lactate shuttle.
Most people think of exercise in false, grossly oversimplified terms: “I burned 400 calories, so I burned 400 calories worth of fat.” That is not how exercise metabolism works.
During exercise, lactate is often treated like a waste product. It is not. Lactate is usable fuel. Working muscle can produce lactate, but that lactate can circulate to other tissues, be converted back into pyruvate, and be used for energy. It can also help support glucose production through gluconeogenesis.
In plain English, the body can recycle a byproduct of exercise back into usable energy. It's not perpetual, but it sure as hell can dramatically reduce physical energy expenditure.
That alone breaks the simplistic version of “calories out.”
Exercise increases energy demand. That part is true. But increased demand does not mean the body must pull every missing calorie directly from body fat. The body can draw from glucose, glycogen, fatty acids, lactate, glycerol, ketones, amino acids, and other fuel intermediates. It can recycle lactate while the work is still happening. It can shift fuel sources depending on intensity, oxygen availability, hormonal state, and energy availability.
So “calories burned” is not the same thing as “fat mobilized.”
That is the first failure of the CICO model. It treats energy output like a clean withdrawal from stored fat, when the body is actually running a flexible fuel system.
Now flipside...
If energy is abundant, the body is not required to extract maximum usable energy from every recyclable substrate. It does not have to behave like a desperate survival machine trying to squeeze every last drop out of lactate recycling and fuel conservation. The body can afford to be less efficient.
That is the other side CICO people ignore.
Under lower-energy conditions, the body can recycle substrate and conserve energy more aggressively. Under higher-energy conditions, the body can become more wasteful. It can spend more energy processing food. It can produce more heat. It can increase spontaneous movement. It can route more energy through inefficient cycling. It can reduce the efficiency with which surplus intake becomes stored body fat.
Same body. Same laws of physics. Different biological state.
That is the point.
The body is not trying to satisfy a calorie calculator. It is trying to maintain stability.
This is why the popular CICO model fails. It assumes the body is reactive in a simple direction: deficit equals loss, surplus equals gain. But physiology is regulatory, not merely reactive. The body responds to low energy availability by conserving, recycling, reducing expenditure, increasing hunger, and making continued loss harder. It can respond to high energy availability by increasing waste, heat, movement, substrate cycling, and inefficiency.
Again, none of that violates thermodynamics.
This is thermodynamics running through biology.
And this is not just theoretical biochemistry. The clinical outcomes are obvious.
First, BMR downregulation exists. During caloric restriction and weight loss, energy expenditure can fall beyond what would be expected from tissue loss alone. That is adaptive thermogenesis. A smaller body costs less energy to maintain, yes, but the body also adapts regulatory systems in a way that pushes expenditure lower and hunger higher. That means the deficit written on paper is not necessarily the deficit the body continues to experience in reality.
Second, BMR is not perfectly predictable in the first place. Johnstone et al. directly measured basal metabolic rate and found that even after accounting for fat-free mass, fat mass, age, and other variables including leptin, 26% of BMR variance remained unexplained. Sex was not a significant predictor after adjustment. That is a direct problem for CICO. Those body's have adjusted to match it's energy available beyond what we fully understand as "predictable" or "expected".
Third, weight loss is non-linear. Static calorie rules fail because expenditure changes over time. Early loss slows. Maintenance calories shift. Activity costs change. Resting expenditure changes. A 500-calorie "deficit" does not remain a deficit forever just because an app keeps printing the same number. Purposeful overfeeding studies and general population intake show the same non-linear impacts of caloric increase resisting fat gain much more than expected as well. In other words, a "surplus" doesn't remain a surplus forever either. Meaning, there's ample clinical evidence the body resists weight change in both directions. Both with extensive, mechanistic, physiological explanations to explain the clinical outcomes.
That is just part of the evidence stack in plain terms. They demonstrate that the body has mechanisms that recycle, reroute, conserve, waste, and redistribute energy depending on context. The lactate shuttle is just one of many mechanistic responses that serves as a good example because it can impact both directions.
So when someone says, “CICO is just thermodynamics if you could do the math precisely,” they have no clue about the gamut of underlying physiological mechanisms of energy metabolism. Thermodynamics says energy is conserved. It does not say weight change is predictably determined by intake and expenditure arithmetic in a living organism. Those are not the same claim.
Energy balance is real. Calories matter. But CICO is bunk because it takes a dynamic, adaptive, substrate-recycling, expenditure-adjusting biological system and pretends it is a fixed math equation. The body is not a calorie calculator. It is a living system that regulates energy availability, and that is why CICO fails as a model.
References
Brooks GA. The science and translation of lactate shuttle theory. Cell Metab. 2018;27(4):757-785. doi:10.1016/j.cmet.2018.03.008
Emhoff CW, Messonnier LA, Horning MA, Fattor JA, Carlson TJ, Brooks GA. Direct and indirect lactate oxidation in trained and untrained men. J Appl Physiol (1985). 2013;115(6):829-838. doi:10.1152/japplphysiol.00538.2013.
Johnstone, Alexandra & Murison, Sandra & Duncan, Jackie & Watson, Kellie & Speakman, John. (2005). Factors influencing variation in basal metabolic rate include fat-free mass, fat mass, age, and circulating thyroxine but not sex, circulating leptin, or triiodothyronine. The American journal of clinical nutrition. 82. 941-8. 10.1093/ajcn/82.5.941.
Rosenbaum M, Leibel RL. 20 years of leptin: role of leptin in energy homeostasis in humans. J Endocrinol. 2014;223(1):T83-T96. doi:10.1530/JOE-14-0358.
Overfeeding studies: https://archive.unu.edu/unupress/food2/UID08E/UID08E05.HTM
Hall KD, Sacks G, Chandramohan D, Chow CC, Wang YC, Gortmaker SL, Swinburn BA. Quantification of the effect of energy imbalance on bodyweight. Lancet. 2011;378(9793):826-837. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60812-X.