Honestly, if we as a community don't stand united against this absurdly prefatory monetization, that this evil company tried to shove down our throats for the second time now, we're pretty much cooked going forward.

It's honestly time to boycott, like when WT players united against gaijin.

And to everyone not caring, or taking the piss on people who want to boycott or express their rage towards this predatory monetization policy; This affects you, too. If you honestly think this game is on an upward trajectory, if 6+ lootbox events each year, one of which being tiered lootboxes is a good thing, I respect your opinion.

But those of us who remember when this game dished out free gold regularly, when premium tanks were better than stock tech tree counterparts but worse than them being fully upgraded, when all premiums were also available in-game for gold 24/7 365;

Those of us who think maps need thoughtful redesign, that we need new free content;

Those who think it's really unhealthy for this game to now have more premium vehicles than tech tree tanks;

It's time to send a clear message to WG. Boycott.

Hello everyone ! Finally (unfortunately), the very reason my simulator was created, tiered lootboxes, are back, and so am I.

If you're interested in my analysis of the tiered boxes drop rates and statistics, look at the second part of this post. I'm gonna start by re-introducing my little simulator.

Pandora - A simulator to open lootboxes, accurately implementing the tiered mechanic

Since this is a big occasion, let me present my simulator again.

Pandora is a free, open-source, and client-side lootbox simulator that lets you experiment with WoT's lootboxes and get more accurate stats than you'd get with napkin math or basic Excel skills.

It offers 3 modes, accessible with the little settings icon right of the open button:

• "Unlimited": you open boxes one by one and see what's inside
• "Budget": you set a specific number of boxes and you open them, to simulate what you might get if you purchased a bundle. You can also let the simulator open everything at once for you.
• "Until...": you set your goals and let the simulator buy-and-open boxes until they are reached. Want to see how many boxes may need until you get the Serpente ? Click the settings and let it run.

In the Until mode, for those who want more reliable statistics instead of anecdotal experiments, you can tell the simulator how many experiments it should run, on how many threads, and it will compile the results and give you stats on how many pulls were needed on average. Remember, this all runs locally, that means if you decide to run 1 million simulations on 32 threads, your pc will cry, not mine :) The more boxes you open, the more ram it will take too since it keeps a history.

You also get to pick which rewards you already own, to eliminate them from the loot pool and see stats that fit your situation better.

Finally, you can click the button on the top-left to see your session statistics. It will show how many boxes you opened, what your pity counter is, which rewards you have obtained, and your entire open history. You can reset your session by clicking the red button in the settings menu.

If you want some more details, you can check my original post on the subject here

You can also check the GitHub repository for the source code, and the loot tables to see the detailed drop rates.

Finally, to try it for yourself, just visit https://daspood.github.io/. There are no ads, no cookies, I don't want your data, I want you to make educated purchase decisions !

Last Stand: Invasion, lootboxes analysis

What changed since last year

For the "filler" content, not much, believe it or not. Most of the loot table for these boxes is actually a 1:1 copy of last year:

• They reduced the drop rates for credit reserves in the basic tier
• They swapped the drop rates between the universal manual and personal manual (the personal one is now 15% instead of 5%) in the middle and highest tier
• No premium account in the highest tier, and instead of getting 0-2 random filler rewards, you get 1 guaranteed amongst all the options
• A very small chance to get a LOT of free xp from the highest tier (2.5% for 350k free xp)

For the tanks (new tanks annotated with a '*'):

Box tier	Tank tier	Tank name	Drop rate	Last year's drop rate for similar tank
1	8	*Alby	8%	13% (*Turm)
1	10	*Bzyg	5%	8% (*Pancernik, tier 9)
1	8	*Chrysler	8%	8% (AMBT)
1	8	Prorotipo	8%	8% (JT Prototype)
1	8	Grom	12%	13% (Grom)
1	9	Sentinelle	12%	8% (T-44-100, tier 8)
1	9	*WZ-120G FT	11%	8% (AAT-60, tier 8)
1	9	KPZ EK1	12%	13% (Emil 1951, tier 8)
1	9	VCS 6x6	12%	13% (*VCS 6x6)
1	9	Yong Bing	12%	8% (T77, tier 8)
2	9	*Ogar	10%	10% (*Medved)
2	8	SFAC	35%	35% (Udes 03 3, tier 9)
2	9	Vercingetorix	35%	35% (E77)
2	10	Chieftain	20%	5% (*BZ-72-1)
2	-	-	-	15% (KPZ EK1, tier 9)
3	9	*Serpente	25%	20% (*Vercingetorix)
3	10	*Schwertwal	25%	40% (*Chieftain)
3	10	MBT-B	50%	40% (*MBT-B)

As you can see:

• New tanks had boosted drop rates compared to reruns, now they have a lower drop rate
• There are more high tier tanks, the only tier 8's are either new ones or very sought-after ones (Grom, Prototipo 6, SFAC)
• One less tank in the middle tier, one less new vehicle overall (counting both the WZ-120GFT and BZ-72-1 as new for their time)
• A tier 10 in the basic tier, which is awful for the matchmaker but good for buyers, 5% sounds low but since this is the first tier there is actually a guaranteed upper limit to get it
• Last year's tier 10s have a really high drop rate, so if you wanted those, now it's gonna be easier, and for those who already own them, that's one less unlucky drop between you and the new tanks
• Last year, the Vercingetorix was a bad tank and the droprate was set accordingly to not fuck over the players. This year, the Serpente is a good tank, and the droprate was also set accordingly: it's as rare as the new tier 10.

The numbers, Mason!

Ok now let's actually get into the numbers.

For all graphs from here onwards, 256'000 simulations were run. That's as if every active player on the EU server at peak hours opened boxes until they got the target result, so I would consider these reliable numbers and not anecdotal evidence.

Everytime I will mention a number of boxes, I always mean the basic tier, since it's the only one you can purchase.

The screenshot on the left assumes you own none of the tanks. The screenshot on the right assumes you own all the previously released tanks.

I am counting the WZ-120G FT as a new vehicle since basically nobody owns one. Same for last year, the BZ-72-1 was effectively new since it only appeared once in an auction before just like the WZ, so I will count it as such.

First, how many boxes would I need on average to obtain every new vehicles in all box tiers ?

This year, the graphs look like this:

https://preview.redd.it/3aenkpdgzx0h1.png?width=2619&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5ed57c621700c3471468301defe2a518a9aecd0

As you can see, even though 10 of the 17 tanks in these boxes were already released before, owning all of them does not significantly boost your chances of obtaining the new vehicles faster. For the basic tier, it does, we'll come back to that later, but for the two higher tiers, especially the middle tier, it makes a much lower difference. 200 less boxes on average is still good, don't get me wrong, but ~450 boxes for just 7 new vehicles, or ~64 boxes per tank on average, is a far cry from the 50 boxes per tank at worst in normal lootboxes.

And the worst case ? It's actually hard to predict. See, while the average and quartiles stay pretty consistent across simulations, the maximum value is not as stable. I can restart the whole 256k attempts over and over, and the maximum will sometimes vary by sometimes more than 100 boxes.

The theoretical maximum for the highest tier is easy to calculate: 50 boxes until you fill the first tier, then 50 boxes times 20 (=1000!) per tank of the highest tier, since duplicate vehicles give you one of the high tier boxes. But there is NO theoretical maximum for the middle tier, since there is no way to guarantee obtaining a box of this tier. You could theoretically never drop a single Object Fragment even after opening thousands of boxes. Now the drop rates of extra boxes makes this extremely unlikely, almost impossible, but not actually impossible.

Let's compare to last year now:

https://preview.redd.it/6asnnf5hzx0h1.png?width=2619&format=png&auto=webp&s=513cca6a86d758b4a7ec8015bf627dd21ea09d51

The stats look a lot better this year, mainly helped by having one less tank from the middle tier, aka the tier with no guarantees as explained above. We'll see how things actually look for each individual tier of boxes.

Basic tier: regular lootboxes

This year:

https://preview.redd.it/m0emxy8izx0h1.png?width=2619&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f1587d928c918c4fe4d0d3a6c58f2156a2a5800

Last year:

https://preview.redd.it/hsdjr3ajzx0h1.png?width=2619&format=png&auto=webp&s=73638aedf08b57943c7ade6327fd208e792f3545

This tier behaves pretty much like regular lootboxes, you know what to expect: 50 boxes per tank you don't own.

The stats when you don't own any vehicle look different from what you would expect, that is because you will still get drops of higher tier boxes which can loop back into drops of the first tier boxes, and the individual drop rates of tanks will play a bigger role because of that.

Last year, less vehicles had high drop rates, and one of them was a new one. this year, every old vehicle (besides the WZ) has a high drop rate, and every new vehicle (especially the Bzyg) has a low drop rate, and there are 4 new vehicles in this tier instead of 3. So even if it's the most "affordable" tier, you end up having to buy more boxes than last year if you want everything, whether you already own the other vehicles or not. WG knows a lot of people will buy boxes for the first tier and disregard the other entirely because of the tiered mechanic, and they've adapted the loot tables to capitalize on these players too.

Middle tier: the actual trap

This year:

https://preview.redd.it/3gurxqzjzx0h1.png?width=2619&format=png&auto=webp&s=9332f1fff0f29935c7dbd7f079c87247ffead86f

Last year:

https://preview.redd.it/q19r8ulkzx0h1.png?width=2619&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7cc920537731fe67075fe19a80a6718bfd73659

As you can see, this tier is the most complicated tier to fill. Since there is no guarantee for this box tier to drop, the amount of boxes required on average is absurdly high, comparable to the third tier of boxes.

This year, this tier gets one less vehicle, and it was the vehicle with the lowest drop rate (the BZ at 5%), this single change completely altered the stats, in the player's favor. Just 2 vehicles in the middle tier had a similar purchase requirement as the entire new vehicle roster if you owned nothing. This year, only 1 new vehicle is in this tier, and there is one less "filler", so the requirements drop significantly. That makes the Ogar surprisingly reasonably priced, though when you look at the tank, thank god lol.

The middle tier got the most noticeable improvement compared to last tier, it's not as much of a money pit as before especially if you already own some of the vehicles. The SFAC and Chieftain also have pretty good drop rates, higher than the Ogar, so those of you who skipped the tiered boxes last year hoping you'd see the Chief again for cheaper, now is your chance. Still not cheap by any means, but a lot better.

Highest tier: not that unreachable

This year:

https://preview.redd.it/lbf2j19lzx0h1.png?width=2619&format=png&auto=webp&s=3466ba42c120e48188b99b79d4d5779e6aecfce3

Last year:

https://preview.redd.it/64qebstlzx0h1.png?width=2619&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b390c907f76e247eac337d2fe9f2adfc3ae391c

For people who own none of the vehicles, no real change compared to last year. It's a lot of boxes, and it's, notably, a comparable amount of boxes compared to the middle tier. I think at this point it may be easy to forget what we're talking about, so let me remind you quickly: the cost of 600 boxes, using last year's price of 265 EUR for the 230 boxes bundle, adds up to almost 700 EUR.

If you own previous vehicles though, the story is different. This year, only 2 out of the 3 vehicles in the high tier boxes are new. If you own the MBT-B, you remove one whole tank from the loot pool from the start, it's huge, and the result is that obtaining all the new top vehicles costs a whole 100+ boxes less than last year.

But what if you want only one of the new top vehicles ?

This year (Schwertwal):

https://preview.redd.it/h3mxxlqnzx0h1.png?width=2619&format=png&auto=webp&s=545c8c945ebcec8b36012cec0df638dd4a4c6cc0

Last year (Chieftain):

https://preview.redd.it/fmtkuz5ozx0h1.png?width=2619&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad54c37eca7c9e036b4972deeafa09b75ffea08c

This year, on paper, if you own none of the tanks, your chances of getting the one you want from the last year is identical to last year. In practice though, if you look at the graph, it's not actually the case. It's funny, it almost looks like it's on purpose. Quartiles and averages are identical, but the spread is very different, and way less simulations end up getting their tank before the first quartile. The reason is simple: the drop rate for the new tanks is now 25% instead of 40%.

However, this plays in your favor if you gambled last year: if you own the MBT-B, you effectively double your chances of getting the vehicle you want, while last year nobody could own the Vercingetorix ahead of time. WG rewards loyal gamblers! That being said, be careful again, when you compare the stats with how the graph looks, it tells one story: your chances may look good, but a lot of people will get very unlucky, there are as many people in that little tail right of the graph as there are in that big mountain.

In conclusion

If we compare to last year, there are a lot of improvements. The vehicles in the first tier are more interesting, the middle tier is less of a trap, and the highest tier is more accessible for loyal customers.

However, there are also bad changes. First, the basic tier of boxes contain more new vehicles than last year. Second, the drop rates of the new vehicles are really low, especially in the third tier of boxes. Last year, the new vehicles were pushed forward a bit, people gambled for the Chieftain and MBT-B and that's what they were likely to get, but this year, the Serpente and Schwertwal have a lower drop rate, you are basically getting punished for skipping the boxes last year. The Bzyg being in the basic tier sort of offsets that I guess, that's a tier 10 everyone will be able to get in a more reasonable amount of boxes, but that's not a good thing for the matchmaker.

My opinion

Let me preface this by saying outright that I do not like tiered boxes. I think they are the most predatory form of monetization WG has ever come up with, and is probably up there for the rest of the industry as well. As someone who used to suffer from a rather severe spending addiction caused by microtransactions in games, I know all too well how much damage these mechanics can cause to vulnerable people, and I think this should be illegal. It took me years to get control over my spending habits, and thankfully the financial damage was minimal, but the psychological damage wasn't.

IF YOU ARE SOMEONE WITH AN ADDICTIVE PERSONALITY AND VULNERABLE TO GAMBLING ADDICTIONS OR IN FINANCIAL UNCERTAINTY, STAY AWAY FROM THESE BOXES

That being said, let me give my opinion on these boxes as a customer seeking value, not as a potential victim of predatory practices or as a militant for better regulation or whatever.

I think they're alright.

If what you want is tanks, these boxes contain lots of tanks. Subjectively, the filler vehicles are pretty good this time, most vehicles are either very good tier 8 tanks or very usable if not very good tier 9 tanks. And some tier 10s. Tanks aside, resources are good. Most notably, you get a lot of missions for x5 XP, and a lot of premium time, like a lot* lot. On top of that, the boxes come bundled with gold. It's not a lot of gold, it's less than you'd get with duplicates in other events (and duplicates don't give gold this time), but it's better than nothing, and for those who don't buy enough boxes to get duplicates anyway, it's a pretty good deal.

Overall, I would dare call tiered boxes the best value boxes after Holiday Ops (which is still miles ahead). Holiday Ops gives more gold, Tiered Boxes gives more tanks and more x5 missions. Depending on who you are, one may be better than the other, and if you are a frequent spender, the two complete each other pretty well.

Again, this is all about value, I am not defending the concept, I am saying if all you care about is getting the most for your money, this is not bad at all.

I've given you all the stats you need to make an informed decision, I've given you my opinion, and I've given you a warning about the risks of such mechanics if you are a vulnerable person. It's up to you to decide what you want to do with your money. Personally, I will buy some, I know what I'm getting into, I'm in control of my spending and I am okay with the outcome. That doesn't mean you should do the same.

Remember, if you want to do a "dry run", or just have itch to scratch, check out my simulator: https://daspood.github.io/.

And please, be smart, don't harass CCs or other players for not boycotting the event. It doesn't matter, WG doesn't care, they didn't care last year, they didn't care after 2.0, they will not care this time either. If you want to make a difference, stop playing and don't come back, that's the only thing that will matter to WG, people leaving completely. Any engagement, any battle you play, even if you don't spend a dime, it benefits them and keeps the game alive. Don't blame others if you don't plan to act yourself. For me, that ship has sailed long ago, so I just enjoy playing a bit every day and buy new toys every once in a while. I'm part of the problem, but so are you if you're still here.

Right guys? Or did WG demoralize you by pushing this shit on us again and made you think "the boycott doesn't work so might as well buy them this time"?