Evan Thayer's Final Post of the Season (Open Snow)
Below is Evan Thayer's final forecast of the season (released last week).
I'm an avid reader of his posts all season long. In addition to simply seeing the forecasted conditions, I enjoy his take on the season, and on skiing in general.
This post felt particularly poignant. A look back at a historically bad snow year, as well as how it compared to previous "bad" years. I especially liked the "Reflection" section at the end, where he reflects on his past 16 years of forecasting, to include some of the challenges with social media.
I reached out to OpenSnow asking if I could share it here in it's entirety, and they were OK with it.
By Evan Thayer, Forecaster, May 4, 2026
Final Post / 2025-26 Season Recap
Summary
As always, thank you for reading and following along this season. Perhaps not the season we were hoping for, but fun was still had. One would think that we can only go up from here next season, right?
Short Term Forecast
Snowpack Statistics:
Ooof! Not the best season. In fact, I’ve now been writing Utah snow forecasts for 16 full seasons, and this was certainly my roughest as a forecaster. I’ve said this in previous bad years and dry stretches, but delivering bad news day after day will wear you down mentally and emotionally.
If you’ve been reading all season, as I suspect many of you have, then you know that this season wasn’t like some of our other notoriously poor seasons. That’s because from a water standpoint, we weren’t exceptionally dry. Here is a look at the water year precipitation by basin across Utah since October 1:
While these numbers are below normal, they are generally relatively close to normal. If you had shown me this graphic at the start of the season, I would have assumed we had a below-normal snowfall year, but not remarkably so.
Of course, the reality is that our statewide snowpack was the worst we have ever seen – at least when looking at an average of all Snotel stations across the state. Utah’s mean snowpack peaked at 8.3” of snow water equivalent (SWE). The median peak snowpack is 16” of SWE. That means that our maximum snowpack was only about 52% of the median peak. In that regard, this was the worst season in Utah’s history.
Why were our water numbers somewhat okay-ish when our snowpack numbers were absolutely horrific? Warmth. Ceaseless. Anomalous. Warmth. In fact, meteorological winter (December through February) was the warmest on record in Utah.
If that weren't bad enough, we followed up this record warm winter (Dec-Feb) with the warmest March on record by a mile.
This record early spring heat caused even the high elevation sites to see a premature "peak" snowpack, and we saw a melt off that was several weeks ahead of schedule for most locations. For some of Utah's resorts that have much of their terrain at lower elevations, this was the final nail in the coffin that forced closure before the end of March.
This season, Utah saw many storm events in which mild southwest flows prevailed, and snow levels were above 9000 feet for much of these storms. This may come as a shock, but rain on most of the mountain is not a recipe for building a good snowpack. We saw this theme recur several times throughout the season. Because of this, the highest elevations fared far better than the lower elevations. For example, the Snowbird snotel site tracked far closer to average for much of the season.
It wasn't until the March heatwave started a premature melt that we threatened any type of record minimums. However, by that point, we had already peaked well above the worst total snowpack on record.
Alta Ski Area tracks total snowfall and total water from October to April each year. They have records back to the 1980-81 season. The previous record for least snowfall (in inches) in a season was the 2014-15 season, when 323.5” of snow fell. This year, we received 321”, which is a new record. However, when we look at water content, like Snowbird, Alta did not threaten any of the records for the driest winter on record. In fact, there have been thirteen seasons since 1980 with less total water accumulated at Alta-Collins. Like I said, not even close to our driest season on record.
Across the state, we saw a generally uniform level of badness. Southern Utah saw a similar story to northern Utah. Brian Head's snotel site was tracking only marginally below normal until the March heatwave, when it tanked:
Of course, this site is at a high elevation. Sites at lower elevations in southern Utah suffered in the same way as lower elevation sites across the state.
In far northern Utah, Tony Grove Lake near the Idaho border (and Beaver Mountain) fared decently well.
Again, a similar story to Snowbird and Brian Head, where we were tracking just marginally below normal until March.
Perception:
Of course, numbers are one thing, your personal perception is another. I've learned in my years doing this that each individual can look at the season differently. It also mattered where you were doing your skiing/riding. If your home mountain is one that tends to be lower in elevation, then it is far more likely that there was a struggle for enough snow to get terrain open during the season. If you're a powder hound who likes dry fluff, there was far less of that this year than in our normal seasons.
The other side of the coin is that we had plenty of good weather days to get out on the mountain. The snow conditions, in locations that had snow, were generally pretty good throughout the season. The high water content of the snow allowed it to "stick" to terrain well, and ski patrols were able to get a good amount of technical terrain open quickly this season. It wasn't all bad. Having a positive attitude helps... or so I'm told.
Like every season, how "good" or "bad" a season was is often in the eye of the beholder. As always, I'm curious to know people's thoughts.
For me personally, it was not a great season. The good news is that having a kid now means that I appreciate the "nice" weather days more than I did before. But I am a creature of habit who knows what he likes --- deep powder. I had a lot fewer powder days this season than I have in most of my previous years. Luckily, I was able to take a last-minute trip to BC for heli-skiing around New Year's, which was an unforgettable experience. It was something I wasn't sure I would ever get the opportunity to do. I am so grateful I decided to pull the trigger and go for it, because it ended up salvaging the season for me to some extent.
Overall, I'm happy to put this season in the rearview mirror. Writing bad news day after day is draining on me emotionally. If I didn't have a job of forecasting snow, I think I could just ignore the poor forecasts and focus on doing other activities that bring me joy. However, considering it's my job to make forecasts, I don't have that luxury. I started each morning by waking up and immediately feeling sad, then spent a couple of hours making everybody else feel sad too. Let's just say I really hope next year I have more consistent good news to share.
Extended Forecast
If we look ahead at what to expect this summer, the CPC currently expects us to see a warmer-than-normal summer with near-average precipitation. There have been some indications that there could be a more active monsoonal season in the desert southwest.
A lot of news has been circulating about a potential "super" El Niño heading into next winter. ENSO cycles don't typically have a definitive correlation to Utah snow. However, in general, stronger El Niños should favor a stronger southern branch of the jet stream, which in theory would favor areas farther south in Utah. We can also see an increase in storms infused with sub-tropical moisture and potentially warmer temps and higher snow levels. Probably not what we want to see after this past season.
At this point, I wouldn't lose too much sleep over what we may or may not see next season. As we get closer to Fall, we can start to speculate, but even then, I doubt we will come to any concrete conclusions.
Reflection:
I now have 16 full seasons of writing forecasts for Utah. It's my passion. I love that I get to do it as a job. I love the friends I have made along the way and the incredible people I've met because of this career. I am forever both shocked and grateful that so many people enjoy reading these updates each day during the season, even when the news is not what we all want.
I try very hard to be honest in all of my posts. When the forecast is good, you'll know, but I try not to add unnecessary hype and clearly explain uncertainty and caveats to each forecast. When the forecast is bad, as it was for much of this season, I feel like you can immediately tell in my tone. It's hard to keep my personal emotion out of the forecasts, but that's only because I feel it so viscerally every day. I think that's what people like about the Daily Snow -- it's raw and real.
At times, this job has been difficult. I'm not a person who likes attention. For many years, I was very careful to keep my name and face private, but eventually that became too difficult. Over the years, I've found that I use social media less and less and keep my ski days private. While I love this career and I'm thankful for it, I would be lying if I didn't say that the negative comments I get from a small minority of people are taxing. Like everybody else, I'm just trying my best. Being in the public eye means that getting attacked on Reddit by strangers is part of my life, I guess. It's not a pleasant experience. Thankfully, when I do happen to see a mean comment, there are 10x as many people rushing to my defense, and for that I am appreciative. Positivity trumps negativity all day, every day.
Thank you all for reading. For being supportive. For understanding that often the forecast doesn't go our way. Thank you all for being the people who allow me to say that I'm living my dream.
Evan | OpenSnow