r/TradingPlaybook

Details on the settlement show a roughly $1.8 billion fund created alongside the permanent bar on IRS audits for Trump, family members, and businesses. Critics are calling it self-dealing, and there was a Treasury lawyer resignation right after. Some Republicans have also voiced unease about the precedent and how the fund gets used.

No clear ticker-level moves yet. These stories mostly affect how traders price uncertainty around tax enforcement and government spending priorities. If it feeds into broader questions about fiscal rules or agency independence, it could keep some volatility in indices or rate-sensitive names.

GetAgent suggested this as one of those headlines that’s worth noting for context but not worth sizing up big unless follow-through shows in actual policy or spending flows.

your thoughts?

https://people.com/trump-government-settlement-irs-barred-audits-11978595

Reports say Trump floated the idea of the US working with Russia and China to push back on the International Criminal Court during his recent summit with Xi in Beijing. The US has already sanctioned ICC prosecutors and judges, cutting their access to US banks, credit cards, and some tech platforms.

This kind of talk tends to keep defense names in focus. Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Palantir (PLTR) have come up in related discussions around equipment and tech tied to these conflicts. Caterpillar (CAT) also got named in accusations from a UN rapporteur. On the energy side, anything that raises Russia or Middle East tensions usually shows up in crude futures pretty quickly.

I’ve been using Bitget academy to watch how defense futures and a couple of these names react whenever fresh geopolitical headlines drop. The moves aren’t always huge, but they can be sharp on the initial read.

Anyone else tracking LMT, PLTR, or energy names like XOM and CVX on this kind of news?

https://people.com/trump-pitched-uniting-russia-and-china-against-icc-11979000

Based off real public filings with the U.S. Office of Government Ethics (OGE)

- More than 3700 Transactions
Transactions totaled $750 million

Wall Street analysts called the volume “insane” for a personal portfolio… To me, the president is clearly profiting from policy influence. It’s literally corruption in broad daylight. Even if it’s a third party trading for him, they are obviously getting insider information from him &/or his administration so that argument is irrelevant.

CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/15/trump-stock-trade-tech-oge.html

Yahoo https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/trump-traded-nvidia-boeing-intel-030913697.html

Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-14/trump-bought-nvidia-boeing-microsoft-in-flurry-of-transactions

Reuters https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trump-ethics-filing-reveals-thousands-trades-tied-us-corporate-securities-2026-05-14/

Iran’s IRGC says it will charge license fees for undersea internet cables through the Strait of Hormuz and claims control over repairs there. The proposals name Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft specifically. Cables like FALCON and Gulf Bridge run through or near the area.

A full cable system costs $300 million to $1 billion. Repairs are already difficult because ships face risks in the region, and some projects have been paused. For the cloud side this could mean extra costs or faster spending on backup routes for AMZN, META, GOOGL, and MSFT.

I’ve been watching crude futures (CL) and keeping a small position via bitget futures to track moves tied to the area. these things can compound into margin or capex pressure over time.

How are you positioned in AMZN, META, GOOGL, or MSFT right now?

Any adjustments on the energy side because of Hormuz news?

Full details: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/05/iran-demands-big-tech-pay-fees-for-undersea-internet-cables-in-strait-of-hormuz/

Nvidia is due to report its fiscal first quarter 2027 results later today. The options market has been pricing in significant moves in either direction, which lines up with how these prints have played out before.

The bulk of the revenue is still expected to come from data center, but the details that usually matter more are gross margins, how the Blackwell ramp is tracking, and what management says about demand and the next quarter’s outlook. Guidance tends to drive the bigger reaction.

I’ve been trimming some of my volatility exposure ahead of this and keeping an eye on futures. GetAgent also suggested that moves in Nvidia often spill over to related names like Broadcom (AVGO) and TSMC (TSM), and there can be follow-through in other semis or memory stocks depending on the tone. The recent softness in some chip names makes the read-through worth watching.

Are you holding through the print, or waiting to see how it settles first?

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

Iran has set up a new Persian Gulf Strait Authority to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and collect tolls. They’re already sending regulations to ships and treating it as an ongoing system rather than a temporary measure. This lines up with their earlier stance that normal pre-war flows won’t simply resume.

For energy markets, this points to a more drawn-out disruption than a quick diplomatic fix. One-fifth of global oil and gas trade normally moves through there, so any sustained restrictions or extra costs keep upward pressure on crude. Producers with strong upstream exposure like XOM, CVX, and COP tend to benefit when prices stay supported, while XLE gives broader sector exposure.

The formal structure also makes it harder to see a fast unwind. Tanker queues and selective permissions for certain countries’ vessels suggest Iran is settling into a position of leverage rather than rushing back to open access.

Do you see this as mostly bullish for energy names over the next few months, or do you expect markets to keep pricing in eventual reopening?

https://www.newsweek.com/iran-announces-new-body-to-manage-strait-of-hormuz-11962513

• Regular gas: $3.13 per gallon → $4.59 per gallon
• Electricity: 17.5¢ per kWh → 22.7¢ per kWh
• Crude oil: $70 per barrel → $124 per barrel
• Heating oil: $2.50 → $4.99
• Coal: $116.35 per ton → $158.40 per ton
• Beef: $5.50 per lb → $8.49 per lb
• Bread: $2.00 → $2.69

Oil has traded above $100 per barrel in recent sessions amid supply pressures.

Higher energy and commodity prices have supported upstream producers such as ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), both of which are up solidly year to date. The same environment has added cost pressure for households and some consumer-facing businesses.

Curious how others here are thinking about energy exposure or staples names with these input costs in mind. Bitget Get claw was predicting more volatility in the oil market so i setup with triggers for SL/TP turned on, waiting for the initial pullback...

Context:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/cars/news/2026/05/04/gas-prices-rise-all-50-states-highest-lowest/89929126007/

The timeline [image1], [2], [3] is built by the movement of a digital asset against linear time.
The Fibonacci Ring is the representation of specific movements made by the asset, and is used to identify and manifest Biblical language into our current circumstances/reality.
Pentecost/Feast of Weeks/Shavuot - A highly possible day of the Rapture, is a 50-day count from Resurrection Sunday April 5th, landing on Sunday May 24th.
View the Bible not just as historical but live and active; as a guide, speaking into the present and the future.

>Hebrews 4:12 For the word of God is quick, and powerful, and sharper than any twoedged sword, piercing even to the dividing asunder of soul and spirit, and of the joints and marrow, and is a discerner of the thoughts and intents of the heart.

>2 Timothy 3:16 All scripture is given by inspiration of God, and is profitable for doctrine, for reproof, for correction, for instruction in righteousness:

>Isaiah 46:10 Declaring the end from the beginning, and from ancient times the things that are not yet done, saying, My counsel shall stand, and I will do all My pleasure:

Trump said he’s postponing a planned strike on Iran after requests from Saudi, UAE, and Qatar leaders. He mentioned the U.S. was ready to go tomorrow but is holding off while talks continue, though the Pentagon is still prepared if no deal materializes. The focus remains on Iran agreeing to no nuclear weapons.

This comes against the backdrop of the ongoing Hormuz standoff and dueling restrictions on shipping. Oil has stayed elevated through much of this conflict because of supply concerns around the strait. A genuine pause in escalation could take some of the immediate risk premium out of crude, which would likely pressure names like XOM, CVX, and the broader XLE in the short term.

At the same time, nothing structural has changed yet on the waterway itself. I’ve been watching oil futures closely and the reaction so far feels measured rather than a full relief rally. It’s still early, and these situations can shift fast depending on what Iran comes back with.

How are you reading this move... temporary cooling or just a brief pause before more volatility?

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/trump-iran-attack-saudi-uae-qatar-deal.html

The current situation is disturbing