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r/TQQQ

Image 1 — If you had invested $10,000 in TQQQ, it would now be worth over $3.8 million.
Image 2 — If you had invested $10,000 in TQQQ, it would now be worth over $3.8 million.
Image 3 — If you had invested $10,000 in TQQQ, it would now be worth over $3.8 million.
Image 4 — If you had invested $10,000 in TQQQ, it would now be worth over $3.8 million.
▲ 22 r/TQQQ

If you had invested $10,000 in TQQQ, it would now be worth over $3.8 million.

In last week’s article, the Buy & Hold strategy suddenly gained several hundred thousand dollars. During a market breakout, Buy & Hold is truly unstoppable. I usually run my signal strategy alongside it for comparison, and now Buy & Hold is catching up fast , the gap between us is narrowing, and it might soon overtake my strategy. Honestly, if it weren’t for the devastating MDD that Buy & Hold suffers during crashes, going all‑in on TQQQ would almost be the strongest strategy

Chart 1.) Buy & Hold

Chart 2.) Signal Strategy

Chart 3.) 9SIG

Chart 4.) 200‑SMA Strategy (using QQQ 200‑SMA)

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ps . The accuracy of Chart 4 is questionable. It feels like the numbers are too low, and I’m not sure how reliable the Python code generated by Google’s AI actually is

1.) When price falls below the 200‑SMA and you exit, the cash position earns 0%.

2.) If QQQ closes above the 200‑SMA today, you only buy TQQQ tomorrow.

Still, B&H comes with the most pressure. The fear of losing hits harder than with the other three strategies, and with loss‑aversion in play, it’s tough to stay calm. In the end, B&H is actually the hardest strategy to stick to

u/KONGBB — 1 day ago
▲ 19 r/TQQQ

TQQQ Millionaires HELP

All the bag holders who started after 2015 please share your strategy. I’m exhausted from researching and never actually investing.

I know about DCA, the 200 SMA, and the 9-sig strategy. What I’m really stuck on is figuring out the best time to start.

A couple of months ago, I kept waiting for TQQQ (close to 6 months) to hit the 200 SMA, and then I got FOMO once it actually crossed above it. I’ve had some success with options and regular stocks, but never with TQQQ or other LETFs.

I did extensive backtesting but the results depend largely on when we start investing.

I truly need help. I have risk tolerance but not to a point where I can loose everything.

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u/East-Mango-755 — 3 days ago
▲ 0 r/TQQQ

If you take profit, you must really hate money

First of all, TQQQ performance isn't relevant, it's QQQ that you should pay attention to.

Ask yourself, does the upward trend make sense.

And if you plan to sell, do yourself a favor and buy back QQQ so you can reduce drawdowns, yet still capture gains if it continue going up.

Learn to think for yourself instead of following bullshit that other Redditors (lowest group of iq/eqs in the world) are saying.

Namaste.

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u/frustratedstudent96 — 2 days ago
▲ 90 r/TQQQ

Took profit

Okay I get it diamond hands and all. But in my opinion TQQQ is an asset which is supposed to be for capital increase rather then buy and hold. I got in TQQQ around 44 and sold it this morning at opening . Pretty happy with 56% gain in less than 6 weeks time.

Going to be waiting for a dip to add more but I think this is my strategy for this particular asset.

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u/theuntold22 — 2 days ago
▲ 283 r/TQQQ+1 crossposts

Analysis: 1k $ monthly investment, how many years till one million with buy and hold?

Another interesting simulation I run on synthetic TQQQ data, going back to 1938.

If you were investing 1k monthly, on average you would need 11-12 years to reach one million by buying and holding TQQQ.

Best - 4 years (just before dot com bubble).

Worst - 18 years (just after dot com bubble).

In the future if we see it to come down to 6-7 years, I think that's when we will know we are nearing to the big crash

u/bumbeishvili — 7 days ago
▲ 43 r/TQQQ

Analysis: 15 Sig is insane

Same rules as 9sig, but underlaying ETF is QQQ5 instead of TQQQ and you target 15% growth, instead of 9%.

And it has insane gains compared to just buying and holding (either TQQQ or QQQ5), with 54.9% CAGR over last 16 years (mostly bull market)

The catch is that you'd have 99.5% drawdown in 2008 (yikes) and you'd have been wiped out in 2000-2002.

u/bumbeishvili — 2 days ago
▲ 183 r/TQQQ

Analysis: Lump Sum 100k into TQQQ - how many years until one million?

Compared to DCA, this one is more dependent on market trend. If you stomached the big bubble crash (like dot com), you might not achieve the target at all, and you even might still be at loss 25 years later, but if you happen to be in aggressive bull market period, then your chances of reaching a million earlier are significantly better than that with of DCA.

Average - 7-8 years.

Best - 2 years (2 years before dot com crash).

Worst - 29 years and counting (invested during the peak of dot com bubble).

u/bumbeishvili — 5 days ago
▲ 84 r/TQQQ

I'm a fan of the SMA200 strategy. But it's too high now, I'm selling everything. I'll buy back in on a potential retracement.

u/Fbeartothemoon — 8 days ago
▲ 19 r/TQQQ+1 crossposts

200SMA Analysis question

Tried a quick 200SMA vs B&H comparison for TQQQ and I don't think I trust the results I'm getting - wondering if someone can check my work. Here is my spreadsheet, and here is the summary of results:

  • With both strategies, in both scenarios, I assume you start on Jan 2, 2011, and never add another dollar to the account
  • B&H assumes you buy $1000 worth of TQQQ on Day 1, and never take another action
  • 200SMA assumes very simply that if the daily price is below the QQQ 200SMA (TQQQ SMA is never used), to sell the entire pot and hold in cash. If the daily price is above the (QQQ) 200SMA, buy and hold in TQQQ. This has 2 versions:
    • Scenario 1: Make a same-day decision based on the opening price. E.g. on May 11th, if the price opens below the 200SMA, convert all TQQQ to cash. Or if holding cash and price opens above 200SMA, convert all cash to TQQQ. If no change in above/below 200SMA, take no action.
      • Note that in Scenario 1, 200SMA is calculated off opening prices for the last 200 days
    • Scenario 2: Make a decision based on previous day's closing price. E.g. if May 10 closed below 200SMA, convert all TQQQ to cash, without even thinking about May 11 opening price. If May 10 closed above 200SMA, convert all cash to TQQQ, without even thinking about opening price on May 11. Of course, if no change in above/below 200SMA, take no action.
      • Now, 200SMA is calculated off closing prices for the last 200 days
      • Note that in scenario 2, even though I'm using previous day closing price as my decision criteria, I'm still calculating value based on opening prices (since that's the price I buy or sell at
  • Note assumption: GOOGLEFINANCE() returned #N/A on some days. To simplify, I assume that if this happened, I would just copy the last valid price. In other words, some missing data, but unless anything dramatic happened in those days, shouldn't impact.

Now here are the results that shocked me as being so different:

  • Scenario 1 (same day decision based on opening price):
    • B&H wins, with a final value of $182,000
    • 200SMA loses, with a final value of $78,000
  • Scenario 2 (decision based on previous day's closing price):
    • B&H now loses, with the same final value of $182,000
    • 200SMA now wins, with a final value of $665,000 (!!!)

https://preview.redd.it/aia4rfuzwi0h1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=ecd2f1c98948577fbb33330e7d3cf6a22ffd6194

Hoping someone can check my work and see if I've made any mistakes. I'm shocked that there would be an 8.5x difference in results just by choosing to use the previous day's close price as a decision point, rather than the current day's opening price. Assuming there are no mistakes in my work:

  1. Is just random? But it seems to grow systematically better with this decision, through ups and downs. How would I backtest this even further (i.e. how can I replicate pseudo-TQQQ data before 2010?)
  2. Is there an explanation for this? Is this really a valid result that is known?
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u/SeaMicSte — 2 days ago
▲ 34 r/TQQQ

Guys…? Guys…? What is even driving this pump.

Is it quantitive easing? War in Iran? AI? Nothing makes sense. Is anyone making any moves? Or just holding on hoping there isnt an equally violent retracement…

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u/BlightedErgot32 — 5 days ago
▲ 22 r/TQQQ

Top is in guys.

I don't think we can continue like this.

25% in 6 weeks is too much.

The retracement could cause problems.

So what do you do? Diamond hand?

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u/Fbeartothemoon — 7 days ago
▲ 6 r/TQQQ

Hedging TQQQ

I’m currently about 95% in TQQQ and have been thinking about using the remaining ~5% to buy tactical puts as a hedge during periods where I think downside risk is elevated.

The idea isn’t really to profit from the puts themselves — more like temporary crash insurance. If TQQQ keeps ripping higher, the puts lose value but should be outweighed by gains in the main position. If there’s a sharp correction, the puts could offset some short-term downside and potentially give me time to exit TQQQ and rotate into something defensive like SGOV or cash.

I wouldn’t hold the puts to expiration — the plan would be to sell or roll before theta decay really accelerates.

Curious if anyone else here uses tactical puts this way with TQQQ instead of permanently reducing exposure.

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u/Usual-Pepper-7381 — 1 day ago
▲ 6 r/TQQQ

Newb here

Long time lurker, but wondering what most people’s strategy here is with TQQQ?? Is it buy shares and hold long term(years/decades) or is it only valuable to actively get in and out of the position?

I am wanting to have slush dividends reinvest in TQQQ in a 401k, so long term. Is this a viable strategy?

Thanks in advance!

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u/Doback57 — 1 day ago
▲ 94 r/TQQQ+1 crossposts

I have a theory that could explain this insane rally

It's now apparent that the Federal Reserve is buying up US Treasuries at a rapid pace. When the Federal Reserve buys treasuries they essentially create new money out of thin air to do so. This money printing effect has direct consequences for the stock market, and all asset classes in general. Debasing the currency, drives up prices of everything, including the stock market. We saw this on full display in 2020 when the Fed did the same thing and we know how the stock market went in 2020 and 2021. Insane face-ripping rally.

You might ask, Doesn't the federal reserve always print money? Why is this time any different?

In the past, we relied on foreign nations to buy our treasuries (primarily Japan, China, and UK), reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to buy the treasuries (aka reducing the need for money printing). This time though, we've strained relationships with those key players to the point they are buying far fewer US treasuries. China has stopped buying almost completely and is switching to gold instead. So this time the Fed has to step in, in a much bigger way.

I think this explains why the market has been rallying so hard lately. Money printing is back.

How does this effect us? If you own assets, I believe they will do exceptionally well in the short term. Even more so for leveraged assets. This is the kind of systemic change that will print new millionaires.

Look at how SOXL and TQQQ did during 2020 and 2021 as soon as the Fed fired up the money printer in March 2020. We probably won't get the low interest rates this time, but the money printer will make up for it.

And eventually the bill will come due in the form of high inflation again, at which point you'll want to get out of leveraged assets. But that could take another 1 - 2 years.

This is going to get very interesting.

u/gunsoverbutter — 5 days ago