Conflicting reports have come out in the past hour with some including Reuters, WSJ have talked about Iran cutting of direct talks with the US. Tehran Times has posted this..
Odds of US Iran ceasefire have surged to 20% by April 15 on Polymarket
The SpaceX IPO narrative keeps moving fast, and the range of expectations it has set is starting to feel this to be a way bigger than just a normal listing.
Reuters reported that SpaceX is targeting a fundraising round of up to $75 billion at a valuation as high as $1.75 trillion, while Bloomberg separately reported that bankers are now testing a valuation above $2 trillion. That’s already a huge spread for a deal this size, but the interesting part is how closely Polymarket is tracking the upper end of that band.
The SpaceX IPO closing market cap market on Polymarket is currently showing about $1.991T, with the biggest probability weight sitting in the $1.5T to $2T and $2T to $2.5T ranges. In other words, the crowd is basically pricing in a close call between the Reuters number and the Bloomberg number, which makes this one of the more interesting IPO prediction markets I’ve seen in a while.
And, there's more..Reuters says the company plans a large retail allocation and a June roadshow, while Bloomberg’s report suggests bankers are actively pressure-testing whether investors can absorb a $2T-plus story. If that’s the setup, then the market isn’t only betting on fundamentals, it’s betting on how much of Elon Musk's narrative survives the actual roadshow.
For me, the key question is simple.. does SpaceX clear the $2T dream premium, or does it settle closer to the more comparatively conservative $1.75T figure? Either way, Polymarket seems to be saying this deal is way more likely to be a monster than a miss
Deadline given by Trump fast approaching and this US official says "we will have something by the end of the day."
Also, noticed we have 17% odds for a ceasefire by April 17 which has jumped from 7% over the weekend 👀
Trump has given deadline of 8PM ET today for Iran to accept a deal and Strait to reopen. Oil prices are going up as a result.
Many analysts are now saying $100 is the new $60 for oil.
And, we have a 23% chance on Poly for Oil to hit $150 by end of this month. Feel, that's where it is heading now.