
Uber finally fixed the business. Why hasn't the stock noticed?
Spotify is up 430% since 2023. Uber's business went through the same transformation. Uber is up 31%.
For years the criticism was fair. Uber burned cash at a scale that was genuinely hard to justify. Driver subsidies, market expansion, regulatory battles, the whole thing looked like a company that could grow forever and never actually make money.
That version of Uber doesn't exist anymore. And yet the stock is up about 31% over the past two and a half years.
Free cash flow crossed $6 billion annually. Gross bookings above $140 billion. 150 million monthly active users across rides and delivery. The driver supply problem that paralyzed them post-COVID is largely solved. Operating leverage is finally showing up because the fixed cost base doesn't scale at the same rate as bookings.
The part that gets less attention is Uber Eats. Rides takes all the oxygen in any Uber discussion but the delivery business is approaching the same scale and runs on the same driver network. The incremental margin on a delivery order through a driver fleet you've already paid to acquire is real money.
So why is the stock where it is?
I was looking at the price chart the other day and it kind of hit me, the business is fundamentally different from two years ago and the line barely moved.
https://www.stoxcraft.com/stocks/uber
The comparison that bothers me is Spotify. Same basic story played out in parallel: years of losses, structural doubts about whether the model ever works, then a real profitability inflection. Spotify's stock is up close to 430% over that same period. Uber is up 31%. Both companies flipped the same narrative. The market re-rated one of them and more or less shrugged at the other.
Autonomous vehicles get thrown at this one constantly. The bear argument is that robotaxis cut Uber out of its own market. But Uber already has partnerships with Waymo and others in place, which means they're positioning as the platform that deploys the robots rather than the company that gets replaced. That's not nothing.
The stock still carries the ghost of the loss-making years. That's the bet, really. Not that Uber's business is getting dramatically better from here, but that the market hasn't finished re-rating what it already became.