Australian auction results, clearance rates and recent sales for the week ending Sun 12 Apr 2026
NSW 46%
VIC 55%
QLD 46%
is this officially a buyer's market? if sellers want to sell they need to meet the market?
Economists are expecting 5 RBA rate rises in 2026.
Here is a comparison of peak covid April 2020 rates and now with high inflation.:
| Metric | April 2020 (COVID onset) | Now (Apr 2026) | Scenario (Sep 2026 – higher rates) |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Cash Rate | 0.25% (later 0.10%) | 4.10% | 4.75% – 5.25% * |
| Standard Variable Rate (headline) | ~4.3% – 4.8% | ~6.0% – 6.7% | 7.2% – 8.0% |
| Typical Discounted Variable Rate | ~2.8% – 3.4% | ~5.7% – 6.3% | 7.0% – 7.5% |
| Inflation | Very low / deflation risk | Moderating (post-peak) | High (sticky and high fuel costs) |
| Borrower Stress Level | Low | Elevated | High / widespread stress pockets |
| Monthly Repayment ($730k, 25 yrs) | ~$3,460 | ~$4,600 – $4,850 | ~$5,160 – $5,400 |
| Change vs 2020 baseline | — | +$1,100 to +$1,400 | +$1,700 to +$1,940 |
* Based on Westpac economist Justin Smirk "This all predates the current crisis in the Middle East. Westpac now expects headline inflation to be around 5½%yr, on a monthly basis, by mid-year. "
If September scenario plays out, then mortgage costs are ~50–55% higher than COVID-era reality. If wages do not increase significantly then the double whammy of higher mortgage payments and higher cost of living costs will cause significant financial stress to pockets of mortgage holders.
Senior Iranian official Mohsen Rezaee says the war will continue until all damages are compensated, sanctions are lifted, and guarantees are given that the U.S. will not interfere in Iran’s affairs.
Here is estimate of war damages:
| Category | Estimated Quantity/Status | Reconstruction Cost (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Education | 600 Schools damaged or destroyed | $85B – $110B |
| Healthcare | 281 Medical Facilities (Hospitals/Pharmacies) | $42B – $58B |
| Housing | 64,583 Homes and civilian structures | $120B – $165B |
| Nuclear Power | Bushehr Plant (Auxiliary & Safety Systems) | $18B – $25B |
| National Navy | 92% Annihilated (Frigates, Corvettes, Bases) | $140B – $180B |
| Air & Missile Defense | "Degraded to Zero" (Radars, S-300, Silos) | $95B – $130B |
| Logistics/Bridges | Major Arteries & 17 Rescue Points | $30B – $45B |
| Indirect Losses | Hyperinflation (300%) & Oil Revenue Loss | $400B – $600B+ |
| TOTAL ESTIMATED BILL | Full National Restoration | $930B – $1.3 Trillion |
The alternative is for war to continue with high oil prices for years causing global high inflation just like during the 1970s. This would cause global markets to collapse leading to global recession or even a depression?
A recession is now the optimistic case. A depression (defined as a 10% decline in GDP or a recession lasting 2+ years) becomes likely if the Trump's Tuesday Ultimatum leads to a permanent loss of Iran's energy infrastructure and Iran retaliating on GCC's energy infrastructure.