u/retroviber

$WVE: Wave Life Sciences

This is a clinical stage biotech company developing RNA-based medicines.

They developed an obesity drug (WVE-007) that showed fat loss comparable to GLP-1s like Ozempic but with once or twice a year dosing without any muscle loss.

Why did $WVE crash?

Stock dropped 50% in a single session on March 26.

They just had a "miss"

WVE-007 at a higher dosage showed just 0.9% weight loss over placebo. FDA wants to see 5% at least.

RA Capital started buying $54 million on that exact same day.

Four consecutive days accumulating. $30M, then $2.2M, then $16M, then $6.3M.

My Thesis:

RA Capital is one of the most respected specialist healthcare funds in the industry. They read clinical data for a living.

The lower 240mg dose actually worked. 14% visceral fat reduction at six months, with patients gaining lean muscle. That's a profile no GLP-1 can match at the moment.

Ozempic melts fat but it also melts muscle. WVE-007 appears to do one without the other.

Consensus price target $28 vs $7.28 current price

The "miss" had some issues.

--> the trial enrolled people with BMIs around 32. That's barely obese.

--> The Phase 2a starting next quarter recruits patients with BMIs of 35 to 50 with actual obesity-related conditions. More fat to lose, better numbers to show.

Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice. Please Do your own Due Diligence.

Date Posted: *Friday, April 3rd 2:57 PM EST. $WVE Price: $*7.28

EDIT#1: There is no guarantee that the phase 2a trial would be a success.

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