u/mulletstation

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Magic the Gathering owner Hasbro $HAS earnings release Thursday. Expecting collabs larger than Final Fantasy and strong growth

Hasbro is basically 2 companies: Toys (yuck), and Magic the Gathering that is basically an actual monetary printer.

They drive growth several ways on the card side. Bring in new players by broadening the player base appeal through outside property collaborations, and increase the product offerings so that whales spend more and more money on each set chasing special art versions of cards, and secret lair drops. Both of these strategy buttons are being smashed repeatedly by management and the growth of the game is evident, and I don't see any sign they will pull back on these directions.

The last 2 years worth of sets has really shown WotC is capable of signing and designing outside properties to be put into magic as the Universe Beyond sets. Final Fantasy, Avatar the last Airbender, and even widely hated set Spiderman are Top 1, ~4th, and ~10th best selling sets of all time respectively. Distributors have to keep putting in maximum orders even through hated sets to get access to the big sets. There's several potentially huge sets still coming this year sales wise: Marvel Superheroes, The Hobbit, and Star Trek in the outside universe group can all do numbers. I'm personally going to be buying a lot of Star Trek.

Even their in-universe sets of late have been wildly popular. Edge of Eternities, Lorwyn Eclipsed, and now Secrets of Strixhaven are doing huge events and prereleases, and the product is selling at high volumes on the big ecommerce sites.

WotC is also balancing their sales better between Amazon/big-box and local game stores (LGSs). Previous attempts saw Amazon/Big-box really negatively affect LGSs since product was being dumped online, and LGSs couldn't sell their in-store items at nearly the cost that Hasbro was directly selling to Amazon. They've since appeared to strike a safer balance so that LGS demand is still more than supply, and selling through Amazon still gets them more margin (Hasbro effectively captures much more profit selling direct).

What does this mean for Hasbro revenue going forward? The toy business almost doesn't matter at this point, focus on MTG, focus on tie-ins.

Mark Rosewater, noted MTG subreddit villain, is also on record saying they've already locked up a larger collaboration than Final Fantasy. Speculate away, but I think it's going to be something like World of Warcraft of Star Wars.

Postions: Loads of Jun 100Cs 105Cs, Sept 110Cs, Jan 110Cs, Mar 110Cs 115Cs. Probably adding more today since it's looking ttechnically appealing.

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u/mulletstation — 7 hours ago

Hasbro reports earnings this Thursday AH, expect strong guidance on UB strength and future collabs

WOTC parent Hasbro (HAS) is going to report earnings after market close on Thursday 4/23. I expect in-line expectations for WOTC since not much time has passed since the last earnings release, but guidance should be very strong with Marvel Superheroes, Reality Fracture, Hobbit, and Star Trek all on deck.

People loved ECL and seems like SOS is going to be a smash in-universe hit this year. With Star Trek being after Reality Fracture, and the success of EOE (Hello $500 CBBs) they're likely going to try and reserve all possible printing space that they can from the industrial printers and really make products that span the market segment. TMNT's strength is a massive massive sign that things are going well at WOTC.

Amazon direct sales are also a big booster to WOTC finances as it means they can capture more of the sale, and with the increase in SKUs I think this won't burn hobby stores as much as it has in the past. Stores are also putting in maximum sized orders to distributors also signaling strong demand across the board.

Yes, we know hasbro revenue is driven by distributors buying at the wholesale level and not magic players at the LGS. You don't need to be the 200th person posting that idea. The whole thesis is that MTG throughput sales are extremely positive, and that even a weak set has maximal ordering because LGSs have to keep ordering to get access to Hobbit/Star Trek, and LGSs/distribution will continue to take the good and bad at high volumes.

Yes, we know WOTC makes most of Hasbro's money, it doesn't matter at this point. UB sells cards and brings in new players. I personally like the UB sets more than in-universe though that's a near universally unpopular opinion on social media.

Oh, and also expecting some huge UB collaborations for 2027/2028. I believe MARO when he says they've already locked up a collab bigger than Final Fantasy.

This isn't WSB but I'm positioned with Jun/Sept/Jan/Mar 100/105/110/115+ calls.

Previous thread(s) here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgfinance/comments/1r0ertm/mtg_and_dd_parent_company_hasbro_has_reports/

https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgfinance/comments/1qu6r39/wotc_parent_hasbro_has_rising_before_210_earnings/

https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgfinance/comments/1q5vb91/hasbro_wotc_parent_breaking_out_of_6_month_range/

https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgfinance/comments/1iu5ibi/hasbro_reports_above_expected_revenue_wotc

The oldest thread I posted has many many people in there saying the LOTR set would easily outsell the FF set.

Bonus WSB post with equally bad takes: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1r0evu7/magic_the_gathering_parent_hasbro_has_earnings/

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u/mulletstation — 1 day ago