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At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced India’s interest in hosting the climate conference scheduled in 2028. India had earlier hosted COP 8 in New Delhi in 2002.

The COP presidency and the responsibility for hosting the annual climate conference rotate among the five United Nations regional groups — the African Group, Asia-Pacific Group, Eastern European Group, Latin American and Caribbean Group, and Western European and Others Group.

After Brazil hosts COP30 in 2025, Australia and Türkiye will jointly host COP31, followed by Ethiopia hosting COP32 for the African Group. This would be followed by the Asia-Pacific Group’s turn to host COP33, for which India had put forward its bid.

The global climate landscape has undergone significant shifts in the two and a half years since India announced that it would host COP33. At the time of the announcement, in December 2023, the United States remained part of the Paris Agreement.

By November 2024, it had become clear that Donald Trump was likely to return to power in the United States. He has indicated plans to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, the first global treaty to set specific climate goals, including limiting temperature rise to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to keep it to 1.5°C. In January 2025, he issued an executive order in this regard.

The year 2028, when COP33 will take place, is significant because it coincides with the second Global Stocktake (GST), a process under Article 14 of the Paris Agreement that assesses collective progress towards its long-term goals. The first GST was concluded in 2023 at COP28 in Dubai.

The GST assesses emissions trends, policies, finance, and adaptation efforts, and evaluates whether current actions are sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals of limiting warming to below 2°C and pursuing efforts to keep it to 1.5°C. Current assessments, including the latest emissions gap report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), show that global efforts remain insufficient.

In recent COPs, host countries’ domestic energy policies, especially those related to fossil fuels, have come under scrutiny. From the United Arab Emirates’ oil expansion during COP28 to Azerbaijan’s gas strategy ahead of COP29 and the United Kingdom’s North Sea projects during COP26, questions have been raised about the alignment between climate leadership and fossil fuel policies.

India faces a similar dilemma. Coal remains important to its energy needs, even as global climate efforts increasingly focus on phasing down fossil fuels. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced India’s interest in hosting the COP, he also emphasised the need for technology transfer and strengthening clean energy supply chains.

However, it remains uncertain how much traction such demands from developing countries will receive, even as coal continues to come under scrutiny in climate negotiations.

While India’s per capita emissions remain low, its overall share of around 7-8% makes it one of the world’s largest emitters, placing its climate and energy policies under increasing global scrutiny.

Source : Mongabay India