The impact of the tax changes on a self-funded retiree
Thoughts on the budget as it applies to me:
High income self-funded and early retiree with discretionary trusts and spare cash
(1) 30% tax on discretionary trusts
I'm already pumping a sufficient amount through two discretionary trusts that the beneficiaries are all paying more than 30%. So no real downside to this other than a bit of admin time.
Impact on me: NEUTRAL
(2) Limitation of negative gearing
Over the last 20 years I've built a solid little rental portfolio that is well and truly positively geared. If I chose to buy more properties that were negatively geared, the losses would be gobbled up by the net income of the other properties. So no real impact on me.
But... these changes are expected to put downward pressure on property prices, and that will give rise to buying opportunities.
Impact on me: FAVOURABLE
(3) Capital Gains Tax indexation and minimum 30% tax rate
Based on my investments right now, assume unindexed cost base of $100 and a market value of $150 (so a 50% gain across all asset classes). At present, this would mean a net capital gain of $25 subject to tax at a blended rate of about 40% = tax to pay of $10.
Setting aside that gains to 30 June 2027 stay under the old system, the indexed cost base of my assets is likely around 120 to 125. On this basis, the net capital gain is likely to be $25 to 30. At a blended rate of about 40%, tax to pay is slightly higher, but not by much!
Impact on me: NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY UNFAVOURABLE
Conclusion
For me, these changes don't have too much bite as I'm inevitably stuck in the top tax bracket. For those who are in a lower tax bracket - and especially those paying less than 30% - these changes are really going to bite and will impact wealth creation.
I feel especially bad for young people who have been doing the right thing - saving and investing in ETFs in order to build up a nest egg. They're going to get hit pretty hard, especially by the CGT that bites into their investment (with a minimum tax of 30%) when they inevitably sell to buy a home. The winners are the people who don't have savings and have never taken any initiative to get ahead financially.